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Leaving aside other inaccuracies in the model, and leaving aside insulting non-responses like "that's a lot of words" that inherently penalize analyses of a com
by JoshTriplett 1y ago
Leaving aside other inaccuracies in the model, and leaving aside insulting non-responses like "that's a lot of words" that inherently penalize analyses of a complex system and favor oversimplified models even when incorrect...
The cherry-picking in question, here, is that you are choosing a model that claims the rewards being paid to richer people are a subsidy of the rich by the poor, by attributing one input to one output, while ignoring everything else in the system. Think about double-entry accounting for a moment: would it be reasonable to point to one inflow and one outflow and say "this inflow paid for that outflow!" as a serious model, without looking at anything else in the system? And in particular, would it be reasonable to claim that as the "core point" and demand that people refute that point while ignoring any evidence invalidating the oversimplified "one inflow, one outflow" model that privileges that point and treats it as the core point?
To draw an analogous argument, which is faulty for the same reason the credit card rewards "subsidy" argument is faulty: if a store offers a "bulk discount", is that a subsidy from poor people (who may not be able to afford to buy or store in bulk) to rich people (who on average can do so more easily)? Using the same modeling you're describing would paint it as such: poor people pay more for the same goods. I would argue that it's more accurately modeled as an incentive offered by the store that they see as on net bringing in more revenue? Do you expect that the store, upon receiving that higher revenue, needs to use it to somehow lower the prices paid by poorer people to compensate? And if they do not use it as such, and instead pocket that additional revenue or use it in some other way, does that suddenly make this a subsidy from poor customers to rich customers?
I am, in general, in favor of the argument of analyzing a system's net effect and not just its intentions. But it's faulty to analyze a subset of the system and then attribute fault or foment outrage based on that simplified model of the system.
If you want to argue that the entire system is not the perfect system, or that it could be improved, you'll get no argument from me. If you want to argue that, in general, "having money is a massive advantage for getting more money", again, that's entirely true right now.
If you want to argue that you've shown a specific subsidy of the rich by the poor, I think you haven't given evidence to support the validity of that model. And in particular (and to my mind the more important aspect of that argument insofar as the point of arguing about systems is to evaluate potential changes to them), if you want to argue that in a different system with no interchange, poor people would pay less for the same goods than they do in this system, I think you'd need more of a model of the overall system to successfully argue that. In particular, among other things, 1) would merchants actually make more in that alternate system rather than making less (which the observation that merchants make more money from higher-income customers calls into question), and 2) would merchants actually pass that savings on, specifically, to lower-income customers, which the observation that they don't currently charge different prices for different customers calls into question, and 3) would some other part of that system change as a result that makes things worse in other ways, such as products like cards or checking accounts (a checking account is a credit instrument) no longer being available to people with lower income or lower credit scores?
I'm not making this argument because I think the financial system is perfect and shouldn't be changed, or that the financial system overall is fair. I'm making this argument because the oversimplified model that foments outrage by claiming a subsidy of the rich by the poor is a bad model for the purposes of reasoning about the system and attempting to make it better. Criticizing that model and arguments based on that model isn't based on wanting to preserve or advocate for the status quo, it's based on wanting to accurately model the world as a step towards evaluating potential improvements.
- gruez 1y agoWhat are your thoughts on trickle down economics, then? Everything you said above seems suspiciously similar to the reasoning use by advocates of lower taxes to "grow the pie". After all, it's not like billionaires use that much roads, schools, and defense compared to the typical American, definitely not as much in relation to how much more income/wealth they have. Maybe we should give them a "bulk discount" on taxes, in the hopes that it increases the tax take overall? You said something earlier about how taxes totally can't be compared to interchange rates, but your exact reasoning is unclear. Is this just word lawyering over what "subsidize" means? I can understand how strictly speaking, rich people getting more cashback (or lower taxes) isn't exactly a "subsidy", because they're still paying more than "their share" into the system, but most people would still think the arrangement is unfair. Call it "regressive" or whatever, but I still think it's a valid complaint.
- JoshTriplett 1y agoEvery argument I made in this thread was about private companies, who have every incentive to only take customers who make them money; that's especially true if they're spending marketing money attempting to pursue such customers. I am making no claim or argument about government spending, which has fundamentally different strategies and goals. > Is this just word lawyering over what "subsidize" means? Insofar as words have meaning, possibly. Before arguing that one group is subsidizing another, you'd first have to argue that one group is being subsidized. Leaving aside the original meanings (which only describe public funds in the first place, which this isn't), and interpreting the apparent meaning, the claim is apparently that credit cards lose money on rewards programs for rich customers, and those programs are thus subsidized, and specifically that they're subsidized by poor customers. If that were the case, they wouldn't have those rewards programs. (I'm not claiming that no company in the world has ever spent marketing money they didn't have to or spent it unwisely; I am claiming that an absurd amount of analysis has gone into the finances of rewards programs, in particular, and it is extremely unlikely that card companies are spending more to acquire a class of customers than the revenue they get from that class of customers.) Now, more broadly, if you want to claim that credit card companies make more money from poor customers than rich customers, that would not be too surprising of a claim. (It's not obvious if the evidence supports that, and it seems like it may not be the case, but let's set that aside for a moment.) That's not a subsidy, and I wouldn't even call it "regressive", any more than I'd call a company that makes more money from rich people than poor people "progressive". If you want to say that, in general, the practices of credit card companies and the financial industry are not fair to lower-income people, I would agree with you there. I don't think any subsidizing is going on, and I don't think rewards programs are a redistribution program; any such claim would imply taking a loss on a class of customers but keeping those customers anyway. But I absolutely would support a claim that (for instance) credit cards are predatory. Or, for instance, that airline miles programs are deliberately confusing and misleading and to a first approximation no customer "makes money" on those either.