4 ms·

The pieces are coming together quickly https://ai-2027.com/ https://ai-2027.com/.

by ordinarily 1y ago

candiddevmike 1y ago
This reads like an advertisement for OpenBrain and doesn't seem grounded in reality.
- ordinarily 1y ago
  I think the general tone is more of a warning than an endorsement.
- dmonitor 1y ago
  I can't help but notice that it doesn't matter what DeepCent does because OpenBrain will reach self awareness 6 months before them no matter what. Who needs a profitability plan when you're speedrunning the singularity.
dbrail 1y ago
[dead]
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
brookst 1y ago
I was a bigger fan of the certain doom in 2025, and I think the AI 2030 movement will have better design sense and storytelling. But really I haven’t seen anything that really has the oomph and fire of Tipper Gore’s crusade against youth music. We need more showmanship, more dramatic catastrophizing. I feel like our current crop of doomers isn’t quite shameless enough to be really entertaining.
- nosianu 1y ago
  A significant thing to keep in mind for non-extinction doomerism is that individual experiences vary greatly. There may be a significant number of people or groups that really do experience what was predicted. Similar to how the experiences of average rise in temperature (I would prefer if they had used the term "energy") differ greatly dependent on the region. Also similar to "the country is doing well, look at the stick market and the GDP". I think everybody who wants to have an actually serious discussion needs to invest a lot more effort to get tall those annoying "details", and be more specific. That said, I think that "AI 2027" link looks like it's a movie script and not a prediction, so I'm not sure criticizing it as if it was something serious even makes sense - even if the authors should mean what they write at the start and themselves actually take it seriously.
  - pram 1y ago
    its literally just the plot of “Colossus: The Forbin Project” so it isnt even original lol
  - brookst 1y ago
    100% agreed! We think about the industrial revolution and the rise of word processors and the Internet as social goods, but they were incredibly disruptive and painful to many, many people. I think it’s possible to have empathy for people who are negatively affected without turning it into a “society is doomed!“ screed
tazjin 1y ago
Checked out when it turned into bad geopolitics fiction.
Workaccount2 1y ago
People should understand that the reason this seemingly fan-fict blog post gets so much traction is because of lead author's August 2021 "fan-fict" blog post, "What 2026 Looks Like": https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-...
Der_Einzige 1y ago
So this is what the crowd of people who write SCP articles with over 1000 upvotes does in their professional life?

The pieces are coming together quickly https://ai-2027.com/ https://ai-2027.com/.

candiddevmike 1y ago

This reads like an advertisement for OpenBrain and doesn't seem grounded in reality.

ordinarily 1y ago
I think the general tone is more of a warning than an endorsement.
dmonitor 1y ago
I can't help but notice that it doesn't matter what DeepCent does because OpenBrain will reach self awareness 6 months before them no matter what. Who needs a profitability plan when you're speedrunning the singularity.

dbrail 1y ago

[dead]

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

brookst 1y ago

I was a bigger fan of the certain doom in 2025, and I think the AI 2030 movement will have better design sense and storytelling. But really I haven’t seen anything that really has the oomph and fire of Tipper Gore’s crusade against youth music. We need more showmanship, more dramatic catastrophizing. I feel like our current crop of doomers isn’t quite shameless enough to be really entertaining.

nosianu 1y ago
A significant thing to keep in mind for non-extinction doomerism is that individual experiences vary greatly. There may be a significant number of people or groups that really do experience what was predicted. Similar to how the experiences of average rise in temperature (I would prefer if they had used the term "energy") differ greatly dependent on the region. Also similar to "the country is doing well, look at the stick market and the GDP". I think everybody who wants to have an actually serious discussion needs to invest a lot more effort to get tall those annoying "details", and be more specific. That said, I think that "AI 2027" link looks like it's a movie script and not a prediction, so I'm not sure criticizing it as if it was something serious even makes sense - even if the authors should mean what they write at the start and themselves actually take it seriously.
- pram 1y ago
  its literally just the plot of “Colossus: The Forbin Project” so it isnt even original lol
- brookst 1y ago
  100% agreed! We think about the industrial revolution and the rise of word processors and the Internet as social goods, but they were incredibly disruptive and painful to many, many people. I think it’s possible to have empathy for people who are negatively affected without turning it into a “society is doomed!“ screed

tazjin 1y ago

Checked out when it turned into bad geopolitics fiction.

Workaccount2 1y ago

People should understand that the reason this seemingly fan-fict blog post gets so much traction is because of lead author's August 2021 "fan-fict" blog post, "What 2026 Looks Like": https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-...

Der_Einzige 1y ago

So this is what the crowd of people who write SCP articles with over 1000 upvotes does in their professional life?