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The world’s population growth is slowing (from 2% annually in the 70’s to about 0.9% today), and it seems to me like we are very far from exhausting planetary r

The world’s population growth is slowing (from 2% annually in the 70’s to about 0.9% today), and it seems to me like we are very far from exhausting planetary resources. It’s like the predictions about “Peak Oil” being wrong time and time again, and in fact today we have larger reserves than ever before despite a century of extraction (3x what we had in 1970). We’ll be off oil (as an energy source) long before it runs out.

pjerem 1y ago
It depends of your definition of exhausting a resource. If using a resource makes your environment inhabitable, it’s practically the same : the ressource is there but you shouldn’t use it. Or you continue to hope that you’ll be able to clean the environment while still using the resources but as of today, that’s still a big gamble on everyone’s lives.
atoav 1y ago
I wasn't arguing about the timeline (and specifically mentioned this), I argued that resource = 1000 resource_use = 0.1 # per year resource_use_growth_factor = 1.01 # per year resource_regrowth = 0.0001 # per year loop { resource += resource_regrowth resource -= resource_use resource_use *= resource_use_growth_factor if (resource <= 0) { print("Resources depleted") exit(1) } } Fiddle with the numbers any way you like, if you use more of a resource than regrows per year you will eventually have used all of it up at some point. Then you will be able to just use the amount that regrows from one moment to another. The timeline could be 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, but humanity needs to 1. Know when that resource is likely going to be depleted, ideally decades or longer before it happens 2. Develope workarounds, alternative resources etc. to eventually just use the regrowth rate 3. Use resources that have higher regrow rates (aka "sustainable" ones) and stay within the limits 4. Don't forget to price in the externalities into resource use during its whole life cycle (this can be many millenia for some materials) Right now the level is that some people even seem to grok the extremely simple reality of growing resource use with a limited resource eventually hitting a cutoff point. Granted my model here is extremely simplistic, but even if you factor in stuff like undiscovered resource sources and a rate of new discoveres, eventually on a planet with finite resources you will run out of them unless you just use the amount you can sustainably use.
- flyinglizard 1y ago
  There's a feedback process that happens on its own without anyone intervening, which is how scarce resources increase in price which encourages finding more cost effective replacements, or reducing waste by recycling (can be energy, land, rare earth metals, whatever). I'm not aware of any single industrial item that we stopped producing for the lack of raw resources.

pjerem 1y ago

It depends of your definition of exhausting a resource. If using a resource makes your environment inhabitable, it’s practically the same : the ressource is there but you shouldn’t use it. Or you continue to hope that you’ll be able to clean the environment while still using the resources but as of today, that’s still a big gamble on everyone’s lives.

atoav 1y ago

I wasn't arguing about the timeline (and specifically mentioned this), I argued that resource = 1000 resource_use = 0.1 # per year resource_use_growth_factor = 1.01 # per year resource_regrowth = 0.0001 # per year loop { resource += resource_regrowth resource -= resource_use resource_use *= resource_use_growth_factor if (resource <= 0) { print("Resources depleted") exit(1) } } Fiddle with the numbers any way you like, if you use more of a resource than regrows per year you will eventually have used all of it up at some point. Then you will be able to just use the amount that regrows from one moment to another. The timeline could be 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, but humanity needs to 1. Know when that resource is likely going to be depleted, ideally decades or longer before it happens 2. Develope workarounds, alternative resources etc. to eventually just use the regrowth rate 3. Use resources that have higher regrow rates (aka "sustainable" ones) and stay within the limits 4. Don't forget to price in the externalities into resource use during its whole life cycle (this can be many millenia for some materials) Right now the level is that some people even seem to grok the extremely simple reality of growing resource use with a limited resource eventually hitting a cutoff point. Granted my model here is extremely simplistic, but even if you factor in stuff like undiscovered resource sources and a rate of new discoveres, eventually on a planet with finite resources you will run out of them unless you just use the amount you can sustainably use.

flyinglizard 1y ago
There's a feedback process that happens on its own without anyone intervening, which is how scarce resources increase in price which encourages finding more cost effective replacements, or reducing waste by recycling (can be energy, land, rare earth metals, whatever). I'm not aware of any single industrial item that we stopped producing for the lack of raw resources.