3 ms·

Tesla Powerwall 3 is LFP - do they make that in the US? (I'm not sure if you call it large but Tesla also does large installations).

Animats 1y ago
Oh, good. Big lithium ion batteries in wooden garages were never a good idea. How does pricing compare to BYD and CATL?
- anamexis 1y ago
  I'd imagine by the time you have a lithium ion fire, it really doesn't matter what the structure is made of.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  CATL's sodium chemistry (Naxtra) is anticipated to be ~$50/kWh at scale. Faster charge/discharge capability, ~3x cell lifecycle longevity, reliable cold performance (@ ~-30C), sodium abundance vs lithium, lower risk of thermal runaway; weight and density are non issues in this application. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6401.html https://www.catl.com/en/news/6401.html https://electrek.co/2025/04/21/catl-unveils-ev-battery-charges-as-fast-as-pumping-gas/ https://electrek.co/2025/04/21/catl-unveils-ev-battery-charg... https://www.ess-news.com/2024/11/28/new-sodium-ion-developments-from-catl-byd-huawei/ https://www.ess-news.com/2024/11/28/new-sodium-ion-developme...
  - ortusdux 1y ago
    I'd pour a slab and have a shed sized battery delivered if the $/kwh and cell longevity was favorable enough.
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      Keep your wallet close, that time is rapidly approaching. Global demand for energy storage at this price and scale is voracious, and supply is spinning up to meet it. https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batt... https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-battery-industry-has-entered-a-new-phase https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-battery-industry-has-en... https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-soared-53-in-2024/ https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-soar... https://rhomotion.com/news/global-bess-deployments-surpass-expectations-in-2024/ https://rhomotion.com/news/global-bess-deployments-surpass-e...
      - toomuchtodo 1y ago
        How electric scooters are driving China's salt battery push - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44161921 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44161921 - June 2025
    - conradev 1y ago
      The world is going to be a very different place because this is going to be possible soon. There’s a startup doing this at substations. They can network these batteries and then use the utilities’ extra wire capacity to redistribute energy throughout the grid. The other flipping points are when these outcompete the all-in cost of making a new gas peaker plant and then the cost of bothering to turn existing plants on.
      - ortusdux 1y ago
        I guess my point is that cars and phones drove battery research towards energy density, but I still have three cord of firewood in an 8*12ft shed at the end of my driveway. Energy density is my last concern.
        unwind 1y ago
        For those of us outside the US and used to other units, a cord [1] is of course 128 cubic feet or roughly 3.62 cubic meters. The wood is supposed to be well stacked (aligned, parallel, touching and compact) and if so, one cord is a pile measuring e.g. 4x8x4 feet. Wow, three cord is "a lot", in other words. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cord_(unit) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cord_(unit)
        ortusdux 1y ago
        Cords of wood are usually around 18 million BTU of potential energy, which is 5000+ kWh. Wood stove efficiencies are all over the place, but modern ones are in the 70% range. https://www.kumastoves.com/content/page/EPA https://www.kumastoves.com/content/page/EPA
        conradev 1y ago
        Yeah, that makes sense! The drive has been not only for higher density, but also lower cost. Sodium batteries were investigated for cost reasons (to avoid the Lithium) and it turns out that density isn’t as good (for now), but that’s okay for some cars and great for stationary storage. Enough demand to drive innovation. A cord of wood is hard to beat on cost! My understanding on sodium is that it’s still early days. Most “sodium” batteries shipping today are hybrids with lithium (two sections, one bms) with poor cycle lifetimes, so there is a lot to figure out still. I haven’t personally seen or heard about CATL’s sodium batteries in the real world yet.
- brianwawok 1y ago
  Worse idea than pipes full of explosive gas or water?
  - librasteve 1y ago
    explosive water? Tritium
  - BobaFloutist 1y ago
    We've been doing that a lot longer, and have established safety standards. It's true that gas is more primitive and probably ultimately harder to render fully safe than batteries, but that doesn't mean batteries are as of yet competitive (in terms of reliable safety).
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- conradev 1y ago
  It's a great idea if you use well-designed batteries! I imagine it is pretty hard to get a BYD Blade to ignite, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Blade_battery#Safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Blade_battery#Safety
  - Animats 1y ago
    That's the point. You really don't want large residential lithium-ion installations. Search "Powerwall fires".
    - 542354234235 1y ago
      Search "house gas line explosion". Also, every electric vehicle in every garage is already a “large residential lithium-ion installation”. At least a house battery, once installed, doesn’t move and is always in a controlled environment.
- yencabulator 1y ago
  LiFePO4 is technically still lithium-ion but a lot safer than what's in phones and laptops.
conradev 1y ago
They assemble them in the US, but they import the cells from China. Panasonic does make Lithium-ion cells in the Gigafactory, but only ones with Nickel chemistry. Tesla does not make its own cells, but they've collaborated closely with Panasonic to do things like create a new cell size (2170).
- p_d_r 1y ago
  They do make _some_ of their own cells (4680) in Texas. But those do go into cars, not stationary storage.
  - conradev 1y ago
    Did not know that! Old article, but: > However, in the nearly four years since the 4680 battery was unveiled in 2020 and began mass production at the end of 2023, companies like CATL and BYD have reduced battery costs to RMB 0.4/Wh. Even if Tesla meets its cost reduction target by the end of this year, according to multiple engineers and industry insiders, the cost of 4680 batteries may still range between RMB 0.8-1/Wh, which is twice that of CATL and BYD batteries. Moreover, the safety, cycle life, and charging speed of this battery are weaker than mainstream batteries. https://m.energytrend.com/news/20240628-47693.html https://m.energytrend.com/news/20240628-47693.html Sounds like intense competition!
    - AtlasBarfed 1y ago
      Battery day was a total failure. The future of EV transport is either ultra cheap sodium ion /lfp or ultra dense sulfur /solid state. Tesla's entire battery manufacturing/packaging advantage lead is gone and is probably a legacy disadvantage, or will be soon. If 200 wh/kg is reached by sodium ion, that is a 300ish mile car with no cobalt, nickel, or lithium that should be fundamentally cheaper than an ICE. It also should enable a dirt cheap 200ish city car or a cheap 40-60 mile Phev. Even if the CEO didn't destroy the brand with Nazi salutes, Teslas days as a high margin car maker were over. The stock price is unhinged from reality in an unprecedented manner.

Animats 1y ago

Oh, good. Big lithium ion batteries in wooden garages were never a good idea. How does pricing compare to BYD and CATL?

anamexis 1y ago
I'd imagine by the time you have a lithium ion fire, it really doesn't matter what the structure is made of.
toomuchtodo 1y ago
CATL's sodium chemistry (Naxtra) is anticipated to be ~$50/kWh at scale. Faster charge/discharge capability, ~3x cell lifecycle longevity, reliable cold performance (@ ~-30C), sodium abundance vs lithium, lower risk of thermal runaway; weight and density are non issues in this application. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6401.html https://www.catl.com/en/news/6401.html https://electrek.co/2025/04/21/catl-unveils-ev-battery-charges-as-fast-as-pumping-gas/ https://electrek.co/2025/04/21/catl-unveils-ev-battery-charg... https://www.ess-news.com/2024/11/28/new-sodium-ion-developments-from-catl-byd-huawei/ https://www.ess-news.com/2024/11/28/new-sodium-ion-developme...
- ortusdux 1y ago
  I'd pour a slab and have a shed sized battery delivered if the $/kwh and cell longevity was favorable enough.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    Keep your wallet close, that time is rapidly approaching. Global demand for energy storage at this price and scale is voracious, and supply is spinning up to meet it. https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batt... https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-battery-industry-has-entered-a-new-phase https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-battery-industry-has-en... https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-soared-53-in-2024/ https://www.energy-storage.news/global-bess-deployments-soar... https://rhomotion.com/news/global-bess-deployments-surpass-expectations-in-2024/ https://rhomotion.com/news/global-bess-deployments-surpass-e...
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      How electric scooters are driving China's salt battery push - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44161921 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44161921 - June 2025
  - conradev 1y ago
    The world is going to be a very different place because this is going to be possible soon. There’s a startup doing this at substations. They can network these batteries and then use the utilities’ extra wire capacity to redistribute energy throughout the grid. The other flipping points are when these outcompete the all-in cost of making a new gas peaker plant and then the cost of bothering to turn existing plants on.
    - ortusdux 1y ago
      I guess my point is that cars and phones drove battery research towards energy density, but I still have three cord of firewood in an 8*12ft shed at the end of my driveway. Energy density is my last concern.
      - unwind 1y ago
        For those of us outside the US and used to other units, a cord [1] is of course 128 cubic feet or roughly 3.62 cubic meters. The wood is supposed to be well stacked (aligned, parallel, touching and compact) and if so, one cord is a pile measuring e.g. 4x8x4 feet. Wow, three cord is "a lot", in other words. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cord_(unit) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cord_(unit)
        ortusdux 1y ago
        Cords of wood are usually around 18 million BTU of potential energy, which is 5000+ kWh. Wood stove efficiencies are all over the place, but modern ones are in the 70% range. https://www.kumastoves.com/content/page/EPA https://www.kumastoves.com/content/page/EPA
      - conradev 1y ago
        Yeah, that makes sense! The drive has been not only for higher density, but also lower cost. Sodium batteries were investigated for cost reasons (to avoid the Lithium) and it turns out that density isn’t as good (for now), but that’s okay for some cars and great for stationary storage. Enough demand to drive innovation. A cord of wood is hard to beat on cost! My understanding on sodium is that it’s still early days. Most “sodium” batteries shipping today are hybrids with lithium (two sections, one bms) with poor cycle lifetimes, so there is a lot to figure out still. I haven’t personally seen or heard about CATL’s sodium batteries in the real world yet.
brianwawok 1y ago
Worse idea than pipes full of explosive gas or water?
- librasteve 1y ago
  explosive water? Tritium
- BobaFloutist 1y ago
  We've been doing that a lot longer, and have established safety standards. It's true that gas is more primitive and probably ultimately harder to render fully safe than batteries, but that doesn't mean batteries are as of yet competitive (in terms of reliable safety).
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
conradev 1y ago
It's a great idea if you use well-designed batteries! I imagine it is pretty hard to get a BYD Blade to ignite, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Blade_battery#Safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Blade_battery#Safety
- Animats 1y ago
  That's the point. You really don't want large residential lithium-ion installations. Search "Powerwall fires".
  - 542354234235 1y ago
    Search "house gas line explosion". Also, every electric vehicle in every garage is already a “large residential lithium-ion installation”. At least a house battery, once installed, doesn’t move and is always in a controlled environment.
yencabulator 1y ago
LiFePO4 is technically still lithium-ion but a lot safer than what's in phones and laptops.

conradev 1y ago

They assemble them in the US, but they import the cells from China. Panasonic does make Lithium-ion cells in the Gigafactory, but only ones with Nickel chemistry. Tesla does not make its own cells, but they've collaborated closely with Panasonic to do things like create a new cell size (2170).

p_d_r 1y ago
They do make _some_ of their own cells (4680) in Texas. But those do go into cars, not stationary storage.
- conradev 1y ago
  Did not know that! Old article, but: > However, in the nearly four years since the 4680 battery was unveiled in 2020 and began mass production at the end of 2023, companies like CATL and BYD have reduced battery costs to RMB 0.4/Wh. Even if Tesla meets its cost reduction target by the end of this year, according to multiple engineers and industry insiders, the cost of 4680 batteries may still range between RMB 0.8-1/Wh, which is twice that of CATL and BYD batteries. Moreover, the safety, cycle life, and charging speed of this battery are weaker than mainstream batteries. https://m.energytrend.com/news/20240628-47693.html https://m.energytrend.com/news/20240628-47693.html Sounds like intense competition!
  - AtlasBarfed 1y ago
    Battery day was a total failure. The future of EV transport is either ultra cheap sodium ion /lfp or ultra dense sulfur /solid state. Tesla's entire battery manufacturing/packaging advantage lead is gone and is probably a legacy disadvantage, or will be soon. If 200 wh/kg is reached by sodium ion, that is a 300ish mile car with no cobalt, nickel, or lithium that should be fundamentally cheaper than an ICE. It also should enable a dirt cheap 200ish city car or a cheap 40-60 mile Phev. Even if the CEO didn't destroy the brand with Nazi salutes, Teslas days as a high margin car maker were over. The stock price is unhinged from reality in an unprecedented manner.