> This is a reminder of how prediction markets don't always accurately estimate probability of events happening. I'm well aware that people believe that these

> This is a reminder of how prediction markets don't always accurately estimate probability of events happening. I'm well aware that people believe that these markets are accurate estimators of probability of events, but I've (as a life long gambler) always viewed it as a measure of people's confidence in an event happening at a particular probability. People are wrong/delusional at scale all the time (think of the mandela effect), it can be the case that large groups of them converge on the right outcome via market forces, but it kind of makes the big assumption every participant is in good faith, rational, and informed.