3 ms·

> In every time and place where people "lost everything," they woke up in the morning again, still, and had to figure out what they would do that day. In Europe

> In every time and place where people "lost everything," they woke up in the morning again, still, and had to figure out what they would do that day. In Europe during the WWII bombings, when someone's house and all possessions were reduced to rubble after a night in the shelter, or maybe even worse, when their whole family was killed. I think the difference is that Europe still had an industrial base that could be used to rebuild entire countries and economic bases. Not to mention the Marshall Plan, which had a significant and non-trivial hand at rebuilding Europe. Today things are very different. Take any object in your home and go through the exercise of understanding what it will take to manufacture that locally or semi-locally (parts and services sourced from regional partners). In most cases you will discover it is impossible. And, if you can make that product, it might be at an extremely high cost. In other words, the software engineer or graphic artist who might lose their job to AI in the future, will not have an industrial base to consider shifting into as an opportunity to pivot and move on. That barely exists today, and it will get worse over time if we don't address the problem in a sensible manner. I don't necessarily like tariffs as a tool for rebalancing trade. At the same time, there's something I dislike even more: Developing technology, only to watch it being stolen and used to kill the very business that developed it in the first place...without any legal recourse whatsoever. These problems are very real. Most people who are not exposed to the realities of the industrial sectors don't have visibility into what has been going on for decades. Frankly, I am not sure if we can fix it. It might be too late.

badpun 1y ago
US manufacturing is more than half of China's. So, per capita, US actually manufactures more than China, at least when measured in dollars.
- taylodl 1y ago
  US manufacturing per capita dominates China, when measured in dollars. It's laughable to even bother comparing their industrial output. In other words, being an advanced economy, the US manufactures more complex, i.e. expensive, goods. The US doesn't waste time making low-cost items. There's no money to be made. Even China is getting out of that game. The US only has so many people and resources. Do you want to spend those resources making stuff destined for Dollar General? No.
  - robomartin 1y ago
    I think you guys are reading something into these comments that is not being said at all. We are not talking about making kitchen utensils. When you actually engage in designing and manufacturing products the reality of the situation becomes very evident. Except for a certain class of products, you have to manufacture them where the supply chain exists. You cannot manufacture microwave ovens, blenders, refrigerators and stoves in the US and Europe because nearly the entire supply chain for these products exists in China. Attempting to do so would result in a massive COGS differential, even before you consider labor and regulatory costs. So, it isn't about shifting the entire industrial base back to Europe or the US. That's between ridiculous and impossible. It's about protecting and shifting enough to not destroy whatever is left. Here's one example: Displays. There are no manufacturers of LCD or OLED display panels in the US and Europe. Yet, almost every product we touch, including myriad critical infrastructure and military products need displays. We have a 100% dependency on China and Korea for this product class. These are massive, highly automated factories. Yet, without some degree of protectionist policies it will never make sense to build a single plant in the west. I was just at one of the main display technology conferences up in San Jose. I would say that nearly 100% of the companies and paper presentations were from companies in China and Korea. Which also means that the technology, manufacturing, knowledge and research in this field has shifted away from the west and is at risk of never returning. Take that scenario and multiply it by one hundred or a thousand different industries and domains to get the picture. Again, we are not talking about making plastic forks and knives here.
    - badpun 1y ago
      > You cannot manufacture microwave ovens, blenders, refrigerators and stoves in the US and Europe because nearly the entire supply chain for these products exists in China. Things are not quite as bad as that. There are multiple factories of such products in Poland alone. E.g. Electrolux has 5 factories in Poland, which make blow dryers, dishwashers, washers, stove owens and kitchen hoods. Other manufacturers are also present.
      - robomartin 1y ago

badpun 1y ago

US manufacturing is more than half of China's. So, per capita, US actually manufactures more than China, at least when measured in dollars.

taylodl 1y ago
US manufacturing per capita dominates China, when measured in dollars. It's laughable to even bother comparing their industrial output. In other words, being an advanced economy, the US manufactures more complex, i.e. expensive, goods. The US doesn't waste time making low-cost items. There's no money to be made. Even China is getting out of that game. The US only has so many people and resources. Do you want to spend those resources making stuff destined for Dollar General? No.
- robomartin 1y ago
  I think you guys are reading something into these comments that is not being said at all. We are not talking about making kitchen utensils. When you actually engage in designing and manufacturing products the reality of the situation becomes very evident. Except for a certain class of products, you have to manufacture them where the supply chain exists. You cannot manufacture microwave ovens, blenders, refrigerators and stoves in the US and Europe because nearly the entire supply chain for these products exists in China. Attempting to do so would result in a massive COGS differential, even before you consider labor and regulatory costs. So, it isn't about shifting the entire industrial base back to Europe or the US. That's between ridiculous and impossible. It's about protecting and shifting enough to not destroy whatever is left. Here's one example: Displays. There are no manufacturers of LCD or OLED display panels in the US and Europe. Yet, almost every product we touch, including myriad critical infrastructure and military products need displays. We have a 100% dependency on China and Korea for this product class. These are massive, highly automated factories. Yet, without some degree of protectionist policies it will never make sense to build a single plant in the west. I was just at one of the main display technology conferences up in San Jose. I would say that nearly 100% of the companies and paper presentations were from companies in China and Korea. Which also means that the technology, manufacturing, knowledge and research in this field has shifted away from the west and is at risk of never returning. Take that scenario and multiply it by one hundred or a thousand different industries and domains to get the picture. Again, we are not talking about making plastic forks and knives here.
  - badpun 1y ago
    > You cannot manufacture microwave ovens, blenders, refrigerators and stoves in the US and Europe because nearly the entire supply chain for these products exists in China. Things are not quite as bad as that. There are multiple factories of such products in Poland alone. E.g. Electrolux has 5 factories in Poland, which make blow dryers, dishwashers, washers, stove owens and kitchen hoods. Other manufacturers are also present.
    - robomartin 1y ago