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Fortunately, Moderna is well capitalized and will likely find ways to continue development of said vaccine if the risks (financial, health-wise, etc.) are outwe

by leoh 1y ago

Fortunately, Moderna is well capitalized and will likely find ways to continue development of said vaccine if the risks (financial, health-wise, etc.) are outweighed by anticipated benefits; this is one of the advantages of capitalistic systems. That said, certainly, yes, cancelling a contract like this is not ideal.

drannex 1y ago
context: worked in network security and automation for intra-government health departments throughout COVID, so I heard everything and felt everything. -- The other problem with the cancellation: Budgets are likely already set, personnel hired, and roadmaps planned based on the expectation of secured funding and secured funding _sources_. Funding doesn't just mean cash being deposited, it usually on this level is additionally knowledge funding and sharing between organizations. Cancelling funding, like this, also reduces input from the funder, the knowledge share, and expectations. Now, you will have legions of [1]technicians, scientists, researchers, testers, legal, business, marketing, safety, regulation experts, engineers, hiring, and even HR,[/1] that are going to have to rework likely _months_ of planning and expectations. One side is that now everything is in chaos and there are a lot of people that were part of this without a roadmap forward. Second side is that now you have a authority or expectations vacuum based on uncertainty and now there will be an internal 'war' between ideological camps and ideas on how to move forward, meaning loss of internal communication. The third part? Now, you have legions of *[^1] who are exhausted and feel like their time has been wasted and now are just frustrated. This isn't even discussing that multi-year budgets and quotas have been set, and now to supplement the funding and knowledge drop, they will have to pull from other areas, causing a cascading effect.
mike_hearn 1y ago
Nope. Moderna's share price and general outlook has flatlined at its pre-2020 levels a long time ago. They have no products, they aren't well capitalized and they might liquidate at some point. This vaccine was a no-hoper like all other Moderna's products. That's why the article says: "Shares of Moderna were flat in after-market trading." The smart money wasn't surprised because this was never going to make it to market. Although this will be interpreted on the left as a partisan move (with the administration lying under duress or something), it's likely that they're telling the truth about why it was cancelled. Trump after all was a big supporter of the Moderna vaccines. But mRNA tech just doesn't work when normal safety standards are re-imposed. I wrote about the problem here a couple of weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44003338 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44003338 It's easy to forget that the COVID vaccines were an emergency measure. The way they were judged wasn't how pharma products are normally judged.
- Izkata 1y ago
  On the lipid nanoparticle toxicity, I remember an article from either 2020 or 2021 that claimed they had some sort of breakthrough in 2019 that reduced the toxicity, though didn't solve it completely. Unfortunately I don't remember the details and hadn't been able to find it again when I tried a year or two afterwards.
  - mike_hearn 1y ago
    I looked for such a breakthrough at the time and could find no evidence of such a thing. They also claimed in 2020 that mRNA was some sort of easily programmable bio-software that would let them launch new vaccines within weeks, but that didn't happen either.
- leoh 1y ago
  They currently have a market cap of $10B.
  - Aloisius 1y ago
    What does that have to do with well capitalized a company is? It looks like Moderna have enough capital available to meet their obligations for a while, but they do appear to be burning through it.
  - mike_hearn 1y ago
    They have a hangover of funds from the COVID times but not much income or investor interest compared to their burn rate.

by leoh 1y ago

drannex 1y ago

context: worked in network security and automation for intra-government health departments throughout COVID, so I heard everything and felt everything. -- The other problem with the cancellation: Budgets are likely already set, personnel hired, and roadmaps planned based on the expectation of secured funding and secured funding _sources_. Funding doesn't just mean cash being deposited, it usually on this level is additionally knowledge funding and sharing between organizations. Cancelling funding, like this, also reduces input from the funder, the knowledge share, and expectations. Now, you will have legions of [1]technicians, scientists, researchers, testers, legal, business, marketing, safety, regulation experts, engineers, hiring, and even HR,[/1] that are going to have to rework likely _months_ of planning and expectations. One side is that now everything is in chaos and there are a lot of people that were part of this without a roadmap forward. Second side is that now you have a authority or expectations vacuum based on uncertainty and now there will be an internal 'war' between ideological camps and ideas on how to move forward, meaning loss of internal communication. The third part? Now, you have legions of *[^1] who are exhausted and feel like their time has been wasted and now are just frustrated. This isn't even discussing that multi-year budgets and quotas have been set, and now to supplement the funding and knowledge drop, they will have to pull from other areas, causing a cascading effect.

mike_hearn 1y ago

Nope. Moderna's share price and general outlook has flatlined at its pre-2020 levels a long time ago. They have no products, they aren't well capitalized and they might liquidate at some point. This vaccine was a no-hoper like all other Moderna's products. That's why the article says: "Shares of Moderna were flat in after-market trading." The smart money wasn't surprised because this was never going to make it to market. Although this will be interpreted on the left as a partisan move (with the administration lying under duress or something), it's likely that they're telling the truth about why it was cancelled. Trump after all was a big supporter of the Moderna vaccines. But mRNA tech just doesn't work when normal safety standards are re-imposed. I wrote about the problem here a couple of weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44003338 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44003338 It's easy to forget that the COVID vaccines were an emergency measure. The way they were judged wasn't how pharma products are normally judged.

Izkata 1y ago
On the lipid nanoparticle toxicity, I remember an article from either 2020 or 2021 that claimed they had some sort of breakthrough in 2019 that reduced the toxicity, though didn't solve it completely. Unfortunately I don't remember the details and hadn't been able to find it again when I tried a year or two afterwards.
- mike_hearn 1y ago
  I looked for such a breakthrough at the time and could find no evidence of such a thing. They also claimed in 2020 that mRNA was some sort of easily programmable bio-software that would let them launch new vaccines within weeks, but that didn't happen either.
leoh 1y ago
They currently have a market cap of $10B.
- Aloisius 1y ago
  What does that have to do with well capitalized a company is? It looks like Moderna have enough capital available to meet their obligations for a while, but they do appear to be burning through it.
- mike_hearn 1y ago
  They have a hangover of funds from the COVID times but not much income or investor interest compared to their burn rate.