4 ms·
You'd still want to hedge.
by scarmig 1y ago
You'd still want to hedge.
- cvoss 1y agoRight? If you believe the odds of something are 51/49, you can say both 1) I believe the event is more likely than not, and 2) I absolutely will not bet the farm on the event.
- msgodel 1y agoI've tried to explain this to people before. Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions, some people just want to be long volatility for any number of reasons. The recent doge tax refund is a good example. If you want to be guaranteed payment you could bet on no even if you think it's a coinflip.
- zahlman 1y ago>Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions Polymarket propositions purportedly powerless as pure poles for popular predictions?