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Jokes aside, it would be interesting to see if the people betting "yes" are also placing predictions on events after 2025 since truly believing in Christ's retu

by wslh 1y ago

Jokes aside, it would be interesting to see if the people betting "yes" are also placing predictions on events after 2025 since truly believing in Christ's return that year should make many irrelevant.

scarmig 1y ago
You'd still want to hedge.
- cvoss 1y ago
  Right? If you believe the odds of something are 51/49, you can say both 1) I believe the event is more likely than not, and 2) I absolutely will not bet the farm on the event.
- msgodel 1y ago
  I've tried to explain this to people before. Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions, some people just want to be long volatility for any number of reasons. The recent doge tax refund is a good example. If you want to be guaranteed payment you could bet on no even if you think it's a coinflip.
  - zahlman 1y ago
    >Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions Polymarket propositions purportedly powerless as pure poles for popular predictions?
NoMoreNicksLeft 1y ago
This would be less revealing than you'd hope. If NASA did a press conference this afternoon telling you that there was an inbound planet-killer that would annihilate us in six weeks, you'd still brush your teeth tonight. It wouldn't be that you'd didn't believe them either, it's that your mind isn't rational in the way that we like to flatter ourselves. Your mind's this big burlap sack of agents, and they aren't in perfect sync. The one that tells you what will happen in 24 months isn't the same one that plans out your routines... the latter can still have you behaving in ways that make no sense considering the strongly-confident predictions of the former. There is evidence of this everywhere, in nearly every person you meet. Including yourself. If even skeptical atheists act that way, why would the bible-thumpers be different? If they weren't different, how would that be an indictment of their belief?
- LPisGood 1y ago
  I would brush my teeth so my mouth tastes better in the morning

by wslh 1y ago

scarmig 1y ago

You'd still want to hedge.

cvoss 1y ago
Right? If you believe the odds of something are 51/49, you can say both 1) I believe the event is more likely than not, and 2) I absolutely will not bet the farm on the event.
msgodel 1y ago
I've tried to explain this to people before. Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions, some people just want to be long volatility for any number of reasons. The recent doge tax refund is a good example. If you want to be guaranteed payment you could bet on no even if you think it's a coinflip.
- zahlman 1y ago
  >Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions Polymarket propositions purportedly powerless as pure poles for popular predictions?

NoMoreNicksLeft 1y ago

This would be less revealing than you'd hope. If NASA did a press conference this afternoon telling you that there was an inbound planet-killer that would annihilate us in six weeks, you'd still brush your teeth tonight. It wouldn't be that you'd didn't believe them either, it's that your mind isn't rational in the way that we like to flatter ourselves. Your mind's this big burlap sack of agents, and they aren't in perfect sync. The one that tells you what will happen in 24 months isn't the same one that plans out your routines... the latter can still have you behaving in ways that make no sense considering the strongly-confident predictions of the former. There is evidence of this everywhere, in nearly every person you meet. Including yourself. If even skeptical atheists act that way, why would the bible-thumpers be different? If they weren't different, how would that be an indictment of their belief?

LPisGood 1y ago
I would brush my teeth so my mouth tastes better in the morning