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By various estimates half+ of truckers leave within their first year, so your thesis is what, that they are voluntarily switching for the worse? Given the mass

by ty6853 1y ago

By various estimates half+ of truckers leave within their first year, so your thesis is what, that they are voluntarily switching for the worse? Given the massive number of new drivers and that half+ of them are voluntarily switching to new jobs your whole thesis here is total bunk that they can only switch for the worse. Trucking is one of those industries where even worse than most others recruiters lie, cheat, and steal their way into getting people into the industry and as soon as they're in they mostly find there really are greener pastures elsewhere.

close04 1y ago
> half+ of them are voluntarily switching to new jobs Are they more complex task jobs? I rejected OP's theory because no evidence was put forward that drivers will just move to "higher complexity tasks". Are they? Are we creating a constant stream of higher complexity task jobs that truckers can routinely reach with moderate upskilling and which aren't at risk of being automated in a couple of years? We have millions of jobs which haven't changed in years skills wise and are somewhere on the bottom rungs of job quality. Yes trucking is bad, but even "just" 1.5 million people doing this for years means they have no realistically better career option. There are 50% more truckers now than 20 years ago. So we haven't really created all that many "higher complexity task jobs" so far, we just created more of the same. When the bottom falls out on this one, it falls all at once. The moment automation comes for one trucking job, it comes for all. There will be no bargaining power, there will be just "accept even worse conditions or take a hike". Automation doesn't fix their problem, it fixes yours: stuff's cheaper. Is your theory also that all those people will just magically get better jobs like stated here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44114878 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44114878 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44115072 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44115072 Is the theory bunk because you jumped straight in the middle of the thread? Or because it doesn't give you the good feelies? I'm not saying it's all doom and gloom. But let's not pretend it's all roses either. We'll get cheaper stuff, and maybe the next generation of people will have better than just trucking jobs, and all it will cost is that most of the current generation of truckers will get screwed worse.

by ty6853 1y ago

close04 1y ago

> half+ of them are voluntarily switching to new jobs Are they more complex task jobs? I rejected OP's theory because no evidence was put forward that drivers will just move to "higher complexity tasks". Are they? Are we creating a constant stream of higher complexity task jobs that truckers can routinely reach with moderate upskilling and which aren't at risk of being automated in a couple of years? We have millions of jobs which haven't changed in years skills wise and are somewhere on the bottom rungs of job quality. Yes trucking is bad, but even "just" 1.5 million people doing this for years means they have no realistically better career option. There are 50% more truckers now than 20 years ago. So we haven't really created all that many "higher complexity task jobs" so far, we just created more of the same. When the bottom falls out on this one, it falls all at once. The moment automation comes for one trucking job, it comes for all. There will be no bargaining power, there will be just "accept even worse conditions or take a hike". Automation doesn't fix their problem, it fixes yours: stuff's cheaper. Is your theory also that all those people will just magically get better jobs like stated here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44114878 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44114878 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44115072 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44115072 Is the theory bunk because you jumped straight in the middle of the thread? Or because it doesn't give you the good feelies? I'm not saying it's all doom and gloom. But let's not pretend it's all roses either. We'll get cheaper stuff, and maybe the next generation of people will have better than just trucking jobs, and all it will cost is that most of the current generation of truckers will get screwed worse.