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It is only a matter of time before the bulk of truck transport is autonomous. Some can say it won't happen, or it won't happen anytime soon, but that is to be e

It is only a matter of time before the bulk of truck transport is autonomous. Some can say it won't happen, or it won't happen anytime soon, but that is to be extraordinarily short sighted into what is the goal of the shippers: to remove the human. Truck driving is not an industry I would recommend anyone getting into, but truck maintenance, yes.

ryanmcgarvey 1y ago
I don't think it will come all at once. By far the part no one wants to do and is also easiest for AI to tackle is long hauling. Humans will still be required for the last mile and delivery. I can envision a world in which we have "more" drivers because of AI not fewer.
- ty6853 1y ago
  This sounds right, but I'd be interested in hearing from a trucker. Most of them get paid $0.X per mile, I imagine the interstate miles are the easy money and the last mile through Manhattan is the hell money.
  - rascul 1y ago
    A lot of the last mile truck drivers are paid hourly or per stop instead of per mile. I don't have any numbers to say how many, though.
  - chneu 1y ago
    It depends on the company. A lot of truckers are paid per trip, not by mile. But really it just depends. https://youtu.be/yIZRffLA294 https://youtu.be/yIZRffLA294
- danaris 1y ago
  I don't really see how the first part of your post leads to the last part. Right now, we have drivers for all of the miles the trucks go. Even if we posit that there may be more trucks on the road with self-driving long-haul routes, it's hard to imagine that it's enough more to make up for all the long-haul truckers who will no longer be needed. And at least for most purposes, it seems highly likely that the number of last-mile deliveries is primarily driven by demand, not the availability of long-haul truck routes. Even if they could increase slightly, there are limits to how many trucks the highways can fit without congesting pretty badly. (Anecdotally, the NYS Thruway is already approaching that limit at some times and in some areas.) So how would we end up with more drivers total than now?
gwbas1c 1y ago
Then perhaps the question is: Where are human truck drivers needed?
- Molitor5901 1y ago
  Good question, I think human truck drivers are needed in the city where traffic is less uniform, than say a two lane highway going in just two directions.
kmacleod 1y ago
Not really. The rise in autonomous production is going to match a rise in autonomous repair and maintenance.

ryanmcgarvey 1y ago

I don't think it will come all at once. By far the part no one wants to do and is also easiest for AI to tackle is long hauling. Humans will still be required for the last mile and delivery. I can envision a world in which we have "more" drivers because of AI not fewer.

ty6853 1y ago
This sounds right, but I'd be interested in hearing from a trucker. Most of them get paid $0.X per mile, I imagine the interstate miles are the easy money and the last mile through Manhattan is the hell money.
- rascul 1y ago
  A lot of the last mile truck drivers are paid hourly or per stop instead of per mile. I don't have any numbers to say how many, though.
- chneu 1y ago
  It depends on the company. A lot of truckers are paid per trip, not by mile. But really it just depends. https://youtu.be/yIZRffLA294 https://youtu.be/yIZRffLA294
danaris 1y ago
I don't really see how the first part of your post leads to the last part. Right now, we have drivers for all of the miles the trucks go. Even if we posit that there may be more trucks on the road with self-driving long-haul routes, it's hard to imagine that it's enough more to make up for all the long-haul truckers who will no longer be needed. And at least for most purposes, it seems highly likely that the number of last-mile deliveries is primarily driven by demand, not the availability of long-haul truck routes. Even if they could increase slightly, there are limits to how many trucks the highways can fit without congesting pretty badly. (Anecdotally, the NYS Thruway is already approaching that limit at some times and in some areas.) So how would we end up with more drivers total than now?

gwbas1c 1y ago

Then perhaps the question is: Where are human truck drivers needed?

Molitor5901 1y ago
Good question, I think human truck drivers are needed in the city where traffic is less uniform, than say a two lane highway going in just two directions.

kmacleod 1y ago

Not really. The rise in autonomous production is going to match a rise in autonomous repair and maintenance.