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It breaks down if you think about individual firms like Toyota. But the macro picture is that humans are consuming less goods and services and due to that consu
by triceratops 1y ago
It breaks down if you think about individual firms like Toyota. But the macro picture is that humans are consuming less goods and services and due to that consumer demand drops. And that means the non-working population's needs can still be fulfilled by the proportionately-smaller working population.
- missedthecue 1y agoYes but my comment was about asset prices
- triceratops 1y agoAsset prices are just numbers. A retirement fund that invests in broad-based stock and bond indices will have returns that track the productivity of the entire economy. If the economy is producing more it means people are consuming more. If it produces less, people are consuming less. It balances out.
- missedthecue 1y agoAn extremely productive economy with 1/5 the number of consumers (and dropping) will have a cheaper stock index, even with improved productivity. Asset prices over the long-term are driven by cashflows. Hollowing out revenue while improving productivity still results in a lower asset price because your cashflows are smaller. Productivity gains will also be swimming against the stream because scale advantage will deteriorate in all sectors.
- triceratops 1y ago> Hollowing out revenue while improving productivity still results in a lower asset price because your cashflows are smaller And that's fine because it means consumption is lower too.
- missedthecue 1y agoOk but good luck saving for retirement when your investments are basically guaranteed a 2% decline every year.