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A hype is over promising and under delivering. AI is extremely new, impressive and is already changing things. How can that be in any way be similar to crypto

by Flemlo 1y ago

A hype is over promising and under delivering. AI is extremely new, impressive and is already changing things. How can that be in any way be similar to crypto and VR?

bigstrat2003 1y ago
> A hype is over promising and under delivering. Indeed, which is exactly what's happening with AI.
gavinward 1y ago
Agreed. I can't think of another area where AI could amplify the effect of my existing level of knowledge as it does with coding. It's far exceeding my expectations.
- cyanydeez 1y ago
  So, the internet was great until Facebook showed up. Facebook of AI is coming and it's going to be much, much worse. and it'll still contain as you describe.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
ModernMech 1y ago
Yes, it's new and impressive and changing things, but nevertheless it's still underdelivering because the over-promising is out of control. They are selling these things as Ph.D. level researchers that can ace the SAT, pass the MCAT, pass the Bar, yet it still has trouble counting the R's in "strawberry".
- RossBencina 1y ago
  If I could afford it I'd quite happily employ a Ph.D. level researcher with inability to count the R's in strawberry. The real problem is in accurately characterising where these models fail in relatively subtle task-relevant ways. Hopefully people work that out before they are universally deployed. The overpromising is definitely a problem.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- Flemlo 1y ago
  The strawberry thing is solved. Nonetheless it's different things. Just because they struggle with that makes all the other things wrong? Underwhelming? I don't think so.
  - ModernMech 1y ago
    It's not solved, I had tried it across the latest versions of several different AIs before I posted, because I anticipated a reply like yours. > Just because they struggle with that makes all the other things wrong? No, it makes their grandiose claims very tenuous. But for me, yes I'm very underwhelmed by what AI is capable of. I think it's a useful tool, like a search box, but that's it at this point. That they are branding it as a Ph.D. researcher is just blowing smoke.
    - Flemlo 1y ago
      I tried it too and I know this test for a while. Not only did Claude respond correctly, I also wrote it in German. And I often switch between English and German for single words just because ai is already that good. This wasn't even imaginable a few years back. We had 0 technology for that. I created single page html Javascript pages for small prototypes withhin 10 minutes with very little repromting. I can literally generate an image of whatever I want with just text or voice. I can have a discussion with my smartphone with voice. Jules detected my programming language, how to build and running it by me writing 'generaten GitHub action for my project and add a basic test to it's I don't get how people can't be amazed by these results. What are you normally do when you try it out?
      - ModernMech 1y ago
        > I tried it too and I know this test for a while. Not only did Claude respond correctly, I also wrote it in German. You're missing the point though. If it worked for you when you tried it, that's great, but we know these tools are stochastic, so that's not enough to call it "solved". That I tried it and it didn't work tells me it's not. And that's actually worse than it not working at all, because it leads to the false confidence you are expressing. The strawberry example highlights like all abstractions, AI is a leaky one. It's not the oracle they're selling it as, it's just another interface you have to know the internal details of to properly use it beyond the basics. Which means that ultimately the only people who are really going to be able to wield AI are those who understand what I mean when I say "leaky abstraction". And those people can already program anyway, so what are we even solving by going full natural language? > I created single page html Javascript pages for small prototypes withhin 10 minutes with very little repromting. You can achieve similar results with better language design and tooling. Really this is more of an indictment of Javascript as a language. Why couldn't you write the small prototype in 10 minutes in Javascript? > I can literally generate an image of whatever I want with just text or voice. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy doing this all the time. But AI images are kind of a different breed because art doesn't ever have to be "right". But still, just like generative text, AI images are impressive only to a point where details start to matter. Like hands. Or character consistency. Multiple characters in a scene. This is still a problem in latest models of AI not doing what you tell it to do. > I can have a discussion with my smartphone with voice. Yes, talking to your phone is a neat trick, but is it a discussion? Interacting with AI often feels more like an improv session, where it just makes things up and rolls with vibes. Every time (and yes I mean every) I ask it about topics I'm an expert about, it gets things wrong. Often subtly, but importantly still wrong. It feels like less of a discussion and more like I'm being slowly gaslight. This is not impressive, it's frustrating. I think you get my point. Yes, AI can be impressive at first, but when you start using it more and more you start to see all the cracks. And it would be fine if those cracks were being patched, or even if they just acknowledged them and the limitations of LLMs. But they won't do that; instead what they are doing is pretending they don't exist, pretending these LLMs are actually good, and pushing AI into literally everything and anything. They've been promising exponential improvements for years now, and still the same problems from day 1 persist.
malfist 1y ago
You can see that in this article referencing Jassy's 4,500 years of effort. Which is said "sounds crazy but it's true!" It isn't true. The tool he's bragging about most went about changing JDK8 to JDK17 in a build config file, and if you're lucky tweaking log4j versions. 4,500 years my ass. It was more regex and AI
- Flemlo 1y ago
  This was not even imaginable at all just a few years ago. It doesn't matter if it's not working perfect yet. It's only a few years got 3 came out. Having a reasonable chat with a computer was also not possible at all. AI right now already feels like another person. You bought gasoline for the first cars in a pharmacy.
  - malfist 1y ago
    Sed was released in 1973. Changing a number in a config file with regex has been easily possible for over fifty years
    - Flemlo 1y ago
      [flagged]

by Flemlo 1y ago

A hype is over promising and under delivering. AI is extremely new, impressive and is already changing things. How can that be in any way be similar to crypto and VR?

bigstrat2003 1y ago

> A hype is over promising and under delivering. Indeed, which is exactly what's happening with AI.

gavinward 1y ago

Agreed. I can't think of another area where AI could amplify the effect of my existing level of knowledge as it does with coding. It's far exceeding my expectations.

cyanydeez 1y ago
So, the internet was great until Facebook showed up. Facebook of AI is coming and it's going to be much, much worse. and it'll still contain as you describe.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]

ModernMech 1y ago

Yes, it's new and impressive and changing things, but nevertheless it's still underdelivering because the over-promising is out of control. They are selling these things as Ph.D. level researchers that can ace the SAT, pass the MCAT, pass the Bar, yet it still has trouble counting the R's in "strawberry".

RossBencina 1y ago
If I could afford it I'd quite happily employ a Ph.D. level researcher with inability to count the R's in strawberry. The real problem is in accurately characterising where these models fail in relatively subtle task-relevant ways. Hopefully people work that out before they are universally deployed. The overpromising is definitely a problem.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
Flemlo 1y ago
The strawberry thing is solved. Nonetheless it's different things. Just because they struggle with that makes all the other things wrong? Underwhelming? I don't think so.
- ModernMech 1y ago
  It's not solved, I had tried it across the latest versions of several different AIs before I posted, because I anticipated a reply like yours. > Just because they struggle with that makes all the other things wrong? No, it makes their grandiose claims very tenuous. But for me, yes I'm very underwhelmed by what AI is capable of. I think it's a useful tool, like a search box, but that's it at this point. That they are branding it as a Ph.D. researcher is just blowing smoke.
  - Flemlo 1y ago
    I tried it too and I know this test for a while. Not only did Claude respond correctly, I also wrote it in German. And I often switch between English and German for single words just because ai is already that good. This wasn't even imaginable a few years back. We had 0 technology for that. I created single page html Javascript pages for small prototypes withhin 10 minutes with very little repromting. I can literally generate an image of whatever I want with just text or voice. I can have a discussion with my smartphone with voice. Jules detected my programming language, how to build and running it by me writing 'generaten GitHub action for my project and add a basic test to it's I don't get how people can't be amazed by these results. What are you normally do when you try it out?
    - ModernMech 1y ago
      > I tried it too and I know this test for a while. Not only did Claude respond correctly, I also wrote it in German. You're missing the point though. If it worked for you when you tried it, that's great, but we know these tools are stochastic, so that's not enough to call it "solved". That I tried it and it didn't work tells me it's not. And that's actually worse than it not working at all, because it leads to the false confidence you are expressing. The strawberry example highlights like all abstractions, AI is a leaky one. It's not the oracle they're selling it as, it's just another interface you have to know the internal details of to properly use it beyond the basics. Which means that ultimately the only people who are really going to be able to wield AI are those who understand what I mean when I say "leaky abstraction". And those people can already program anyway, so what are we even solving by going full natural language? > I created single page html Javascript pages for small prototypes withhin 10 minutes with very little repromting. You can achieve similar results with better language design and tooling. Really this is more of an indictment of Javascript as a language. Why couldn't you write the small prototype in 10 minutes in Javascript? > I can literally generate an image of whatever I want with just text or voice. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy doing this all the time. But AI images are kind of a different breed because art doesn't ever have to be "right". But still, just like generative text, AI images are impressive only to a point where details start to matter. Like hands. Or character consistency. Multiple characters in a scene. This is still a problem in latest models of AI not doing what you tell it to do. > I can have a discussion with my smartphone with voice. Yes, talking to your phone is a neat trick, but is it a discussion? Interacting with AI often feels more like an improv session, where it just makes things up and rolls with vibes. Every time (and yes I mean every) I ask it about topics I'm an expert about, it gets things wrong. Often subtly, but importantly still wrong. It feels like less of a discussion and more like I'm being slowly gaslight. This is not impressive, it's frustrating. I think you get my point. Yes, AI can be impressive at first, but when you start using it more and more you start to see all the cracks. And it would be fine if those cracks were being patched, or even if they just acknowledged them and the limitations of LLMs. But they won't do that; instead what they are doing is pretending they don't exist, pretending these LLMs are actually good, and pushing AI into literally everything and anything. They've been promising exponential improvements for years now, and still the same problems from day 1 persist.

malfist 1y ago

You can see that in this article referencing Jassy's 4,500 years of effort. Which is said "sounds crazy but it's true!" It isn't true. The tool he's bragging about most went about changing JDK8 to JDK17 in a build config file, and if you're lucky tweaking log4j versions. 4,500 years my ass. It was more regex and AI

Flemlo 1y ago
This was not even imaginable at all just a few years ago. It doesn't matter if it's not working perfect yet. It's only a few years got 3 came out. Having a reasonable chat with a computer was also not possible at all. AI right now already feels like another person. You bought gasoline for the first cars in a pharmacy.
- malfist 1y ago
  Sed was released in 1973. Changing a number in a config file with regex has been easily possible for over fifty years
  - Flemlo 1y ago
    [flagged]