I feel like all these articles have this issues. The hard part is in knowing which is which and I don't think anyone real has a tried and true solution for it.

I feel like all these articles have this issues. The hard part is in knowing which is which and I don't think anyone real has a tried and true solution for it. I think because its really about correctly predicting the future in a n continually evolving environment. Those "simple" solutions can be piled on top of each other turn into an absolute monstrosity over time. And then engineered solution can be overengineered and overly complex when it turns out the problems it solves never ended up happening. On top of that people don't even think of simplicity in the same way. One person's simple is another's overly complex. What seems to work for me is try give yourself outs/alternative paths. Hedge your bets by overengineering slightly on where you think there is more risk. And keep it simple where there is less risk. Then reevaluate.