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This is the real demographic death trap, and why Taiwan and South Korea are probably past the point of no return. If one generation has a fertility rate of 1 c

This is the real demographic death trap, and why Taiwan and South Korea are probably past the point of no return. If one generation has a fertility rate of 1 child per woman, the next must have 4 children per woman to undo the demographic change. The people in the “corrective” generation must support their own two elderly parents plus four of their own children. It becomes practically impossible.

lostlogin 1y ago
> The people in the “corrective” generation must support their own two elderly parents plus four of their own children. It becomes practically impossible. The country and the individual has the same problem. But it also goes a generation further. There was a link on HN recently which I can’t find. It discussed how we are in an unusual time, where kids can often meet their great grandparents. Previously people died younger, so couldn’t. Now people are having kids at an age where it will be unlikely for them to meet their great grandchildren.
- gambiting 1y ago
  >>Previously people died younger, so couldn’t I'm not sure that's true - people died younger, sure, but they also had kids much earlier. Even assuming 18 for first child(and it often was earlier than 18), you'd be a great grandparent at the age of 54 - and people have commonly lived that long even in antiquity.
  - lostlogin 1y ago
    Have a look at the graph here - ‘Life expectancy by world region, from 1770 to 2018’ The average lifespans was only 40-something until the 1850-1950 range. I’m sure plenty lived longer, but the average was terrible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy
    - messe 1y ago
      Those figures are heavily skewed by high infant mortality rates.
    - rightbyte 1y ago
      Read the "other measures" part of the article. "While the most common age of death in adulthood among modern hunter-gatherers (often taken as a guide to the likely most favourable Paleolithic demographic experience) is estimated to average 72 years,[169] the number dying at that age is dwarfed by those (over a fifth of all infants) dying in the first year of life, and only around a quarter usually survive to the higher age." Etc.
    - bethekidyouwant 1y ago
      Yeah, I don’t know why people actually believe everyone died at 40 clearly that that’s not true. You’ve met a 40-year-old, right? Here’s a popular one include all the abortions as deaths and you’ll see that the average age that we live now is also 40
      - gambiting 1y ago
        Why would you include abortions too? My wife had a miscarriage at 3 months in, should we include that in stats too?
dtech 1y ago
Getting to a fertility rate of 2.1 will at least mean the problem will end at some point and the population will be stable, altough it will take the better half of a century.
gambiting 1y ago
This is a nice explanation from Kurzgesagt showing precisely why South Korea is completely screwed long term, and why it's impossible to course correct through birth rate alone: https://youtu.be/Ufmu1WD2TSk?si=3mMFke_Rj6b3jWld https://youtu.be/Ufmu1WD2TSk?si=3mMFke_Rj6b3jWld

lostlogin 1y ago

> The people in the “corrective” generation must support their own two elderly parents plus four of their own children. It becomes practically impossible. The country and the individual has the same problem. But it also goes a generation further. There was a link on HN recently which I can’t find. It discussed how we are in an unusual time, where kids can often meet their great grandparents. Previously people died younger, so couldn’t. Now people are having kids at an age where it will be unlikely for them to meet their great grandchildren.

gambiting 1y ago
>>Previously people died younger, so couldn’t I'm not sure that's true - people died younger, sure, but they also had kids much earlier. Even assuming 18 for first child(and it often was earlier than 18), you'd be a great grandparent at the age of 54 - and people have commonly lived that long even in antiquity.
- lostlogin 1y ago
  Have a look at the graph here - ‘Life expectancy by world region, from 1770 to 2018’ The average lifespans was only 40-something until the 1850-1950 range. I’m sure plenty lived longer, but the average was terrible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy
  - messe 1y ago
    Those figures are heavily skewed by high infant mortality rates.
  - rightbyte 1y ago
    Read the "other measures" part of the article. "While the most common age of death in adulthood among modern hunter-gatherers (often taken as a guide to the likely most favourable Paleolithic demographic experience) is estimated to average 72 years,[169] the number dying at that age is dwarfed by those (over a fifth of all infants) dying in the first year of life, and only around a quarter usually survive to the higher age." Etc.
  - bethekidyouwant 1y ago
    Yeah, I don’t know why people actually believe everyone died at 40 clearly that that’s not true. You’ve met a 40-year-old, right? Here’s a popular one include all the abortions as deaths and you’ll see that the average age that we live now is also 40
    - gambiting 1y ago
      Why would you include abortions too? My wife had a miscarriage at 3 months in, should we include that in stats too?

dtech 1y ago

Getting to a fertility rate of 2.1 will at least mean the problem will end at some point and the population will be stable, altough it will take the better half of a century.

gambiting 1y ago

This is a nice explanation from Kurzgesagt showing precisely why South Korea is completely screwed long term, and why it's impossible to course correct through birth rate alone: https://youtu.be/Ufmu1WD2TSk?si=3mMFke_Rj6b3jWld https://youtu.be/Ufmu1WD2TSk?si=3mMFke_Rj6b3jWld