3 ms·

Trump's Middle East AI Deal: "Just Count the Server Racks"

FirmwareBurner 1y ago
The middle east knows oil money won't last forever so it's investing into industries of the future, giving the US insanely good deal to move their datacenters there so they become another Taiwan, a valuable investment the US will be forced to protect militarily and economically once their oil runs out. Brilliant move on their side. And not just datacenters. The middle east are investing in bring up a lot of other industries to ensure their long term post-oil prosperity: tourism, corporate tax heavens, sports & e-sports, expos & events, maybe aerospace and military manufacturing etc.
- oldpersonintx2 1y ago
  that ship sailed, the US went to war to protect the Kuwaiti regime in 1991
  - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
    Their oil won't last forever. Once that runs out what's there for the US to protect? US datacenters of course.
    - oldpersonintx2 1y ago
      data centers apparently
- jasonjayr 1y ago
  Doesn't this end up being a trap though? If most of the compute for AI is not within our borders, we can get shut out of it? Or be charged extortion rates? Will the "Organization for AI-Exporting Countries" be a thing on the horizon?
  - FirmwareBurner 1y ago
    >Doesn't this end up being a trap though? Yes, but did that stop the entire western private industries from collectively moving their manufacturing to China leaving the west exposed to the CCP? When do CEOs ever think long term about second order effects or national security interests? It's all about the shareholder returns and next quarter baby. And if your competitors are moving to UAE and have cheaper compute than you, that automatically puts you at a disadvantage so you'll have no choice but to move to the UAE yourself or go bust. It's the China playbook all over again.
    - tharmas 1y ago
      The gamble was that the Communists would be overthrown or collapse once "the people” got a taste of western capitalism etc etc.
  - Spooky23 1y ago
    Of course. It’s pretty reliable barometer that if the “All In” crew is pontificating about something, it’s either stupid, odious corruption, self-serving dreck, or all of the above. In this scenario, the Saudis have limitless wealth and own the valley tech money bros. When you hear them speak, you’re listening to a proxy for MBS. Everything that the supposed new American nationalists say about China and trade imbalance has already happened with the Gulf States. The lazy way to see when these arguments break down is to listen to Elon babble about Mars when he’s talking about it.
- exceptione 1y ago
  > The middle east is giving the US insanely good deal US => US elites Autocrats hate the rule of law, they just like it as an instrument. Also, they think in spheres of influence where the strong party can "eat". That is why the ideologues behind the current US insurrection of autocracy have such difficulties with the EU and are hell bent on destroying it. It might sound crazy, but their ideologues think in terms of power polars, with the US, Russia and China as the three world powers, with some reservoirs between them. In their view Europe is such a reservoir, as is the Middle East and Africa. The same way as the Kremlin views Ukraine. Our problem is that we have started to believe that history was over. That fascism = Hitler, and so cannot happen anymore. But the human struggle against autocracy will be forever. - On an optimistic note: autocrats are extremely vulnerable. It is a small group of people that needs to parasitize on the public. It is a matter of people waking up just in time. - On a pessimistic note: this time it is possible to lock up people in information silos and spy 24/7 on them. All ingredients what one would call a tech dystopia are ready. Also: Europe is being cut off from critical supplies needed for defense. This is how nazi Germany got suffocated. This is also why there is such a strong focus in the US on Greenland and Canada. Might makes right, they only need to normalize it to the US public. The war to shape the fascist mind has already begun, in all kinds of ways, step-by-step. In the mean time, the press will present things like if they are neutral. Yet, even if press people are starting to get nervous at this moment and want to correct course, they are likely to find they have forfeited their own space for doing their actual job. The repercussions are real. Case in point: The Gulf of America. A loyalty test needed for the Gleichschaltung. The focus on Trump and circus eats the bandwidth away that the public needs for introspection: how much do I normalize autocracy? That is the first war, the others will follow.
enceladus06 1y ago
Why is selling China AI a bad thing? Free market is better. I'd like to buy a BYD Electric Car, but apparently the US Government (Biden and Trump Admins) think that is a bad thing too.
- lordofgibbons 1y ago
  The U.S defense apparatus sees China as its primary adversary. Anything that can help china to develop a stronger economy or military is seen as a threat. Therefore, anything that can create a wide gap between U.S and China's A.I capabilities is seen as attractive.
  - tinbad 1y ago
    This comment is framed as if Chinas dictator regime is seeing US as any different. China (and Russia for that matter) had plenty of opportunities to collaborate with rest of world, instead they decided to pursue their own imperialist shenanigans.
- dijit 1y ago
  Tangent; A lot of people forget that the basis of the European Economic Area and European Union was to promote free trade with the sole intent purpose of making future wars unthinkable. As in, if Britain depends on France for power, and France depends on Britain for pharmaceuticals- going to war with each other becomes intentionally difficult to the point of near impossibility without extremely good reasons. If you want your opponent to know that you don't mind going to war, a good option is to ensure you don't "depend" on them for anything, and to cut them off from getting good things from you that might aid them.
  - throw0101d 1y ago
    > A lot of people forget that the basis of the European Economic Area and European Union was to promote free trade with the sole intent purpose of making future wars unthinkable. And that was one of the reason for letting China into the WTO: the thinking is they'd prosper and the citizens would see the advantages of capitalism and economic liberalization would lead to political liberalization. How's Chinese political liberalization coming along? (Remember that Europeans generally had political liberalization before WW2.)
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
bigcat12345678 1y ago
I am confused why people still claim diffusion rule or any form of tech embargos work at all. Isnt it clear that tech cannot be contained. If China cannot invent, they'll steal (actually, anyone will do that). The key is to build a system that everyone more or less consider themselves better off than any alternative.
bgwalter 1y ago
They are reliable allies in the sense that their significant US assets can be frozen, the US can favor a crown prince and that the Wahhabi people in Syria that are being used against Iran are currently the best friends of the West. Also, potentially selling latest gen chips to China is an overblown problem.
martythemaniak 1y ago
> It is possible, given sufficiently strong agreement details (which are not yet public and may not be finalized) and private unvoiced considerations, that this deal contains sufficient safeguards and justifications that, absent ability to fix other American policy failures, this decision is superior to the available alternatives. This is a great example of how incredibly stupid smart people can be. They take obvious bullshit at face value, then spend their lives arguing over insane made-up details of that bullshit. It'd be funny if they didn't end up enabling the bullshit grifters. Trump is very simple. Give him praise, give him money and he'll give you some public concession he controls. He operates like every other despot in the history of the world. Nothing new or interesting about it. You're an Emir and want some chips? Give him praise, give him money, and he'll change the rules so you can have your chips. If your thinking is more complicated than this, it's wrong.
maxglute 1y ago
Obvious propaganda lens is to fixate on PRC when MENA AI = don't need to follow US regulations. Too many content creators in the west whose going to cause trouble once AI becomes truly disruptive. Biden diffusion rule more about ccontrol with tiered partners, Trump about business and capture.

The middle east knows oil money won't last forever so it's investing into industries of the future, giving the US insanely good deal to move their datacenters there so they become another Taiwan, a valuable investment the US will be forced to protect militarily and economically once their oil runs out. Brilliant move on their side. And not just datacenters. The middle east are investing in bring up a lot of other industries to ensure their long term post-oil prosperity: tourism, corporate tax heavens, sports & e-sports, expos & events, maybe aerospace and military manufacturing etc.

oldpersonintx2 1y ago
that ship sailed, the US went to war to protect the Kuwaiti regime in 1991
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
  Their oil won't last forever. Once that runs out what's there for the US to protect? US datacenters of course.
  - oldpersonintx2 1y ago
    data centers apparently
jasonjayr 1y ago
Doesn't this end up being a trap though? If most of the compute for AI is not within our borders, we can get shut out of it? Or be charged extortion rates? Will the "Organization for AI-Exporting Countries" be a thing on the horizon?
- FirmwareBurner 1y ago
  >Doesn't this end up being a trap though? Yes, but did that stop the entire western private industries from collectively moving their manufacturing to China leaving the west exposed to the CCP? When do CEOs ever think long term about second order effects or national security interests? It's all about the shareholder returns and next quarter baby. And if your competitors are moving to UAE and have cheaper compute than you, that automatically puts you at a disadvantage so you'll have no choice but to move to the UAE yourself or go bust. It's the China playbook all over again.
  - tharmas 1y ago
    The gamble was that the Communists would be overthrown or collapse once "the people” got a taste of western capitalism etc etc.
- Spooky23 1y ago
  Of course. It’s pretty reliable barometer that if the “All In” crew is pontificating about something, it’s either stupid, odious corruption, self-serving dreck, or all of the above. In this scenario, the Saudis have limitless wealth and own the valley tech money bros. When you hear them speak, you’re listening to a proxy for MBS. Everything that the supposed new American nationalists say about China and trade imbalance has already happened with the Gulf States. The lazy way to see when these arguments break down is to listen to Elon babble about Mars when he’s talking about it.
exceptione 1y ago
> The middle east is giving the US insanely good deal US => US elites Autocrats hate the rule of law, they just like it as an instrument. Also, they think in spheres of influence where the strong party can "eat". That is why the ideologues behind the current US insurrection of autocracy have such difficulties with the EU and are hell bent on destroying it. It might sound crazy, but their ideologues think in terms of power polars, with the US, Russia and China as the three world powers, with some reservoirs between them. In their view Europe is such a reservoir, as is the Middle East and Africa. The same way as the Kremlin views Ukraine. Our problem is that we have started to believe that history was over. That fascism = Hitler, and so cannot happen anymore. But the human struggle against autocracy will be forever. - On an optimistic note: autocrats are extremely vulnerable. It is a small group of people that needs to parasitize on the public. It is a matter of people waking up just in time. - On a pessimistic note: this time it is possible to lock up people in information silos and spy 24/7 on them. All ingredients what one would call a tech dystopia are ready. Also: Europe is being cut off from critical supplies needed for defense. This is how nazi Germany got suffocated. This is also why there is such a strong focus in the US on Greenland and Canada. Might makes right, they only need to normalize it to the US public. The war to shape the fascist mind has already begun, in all kinds of ways, step-by-step. In the mean time, the press will present things like if they are neutral. Yet, even if press people are starting to get nervous at this moment and want to correct course, they are likely to find they have forfeited their own space for doing their actual job. The repercussions are real. Case in point: The Gulf of America. A loyalty test needed for the Gleichschaltung. The focus on Trump and circus eats the bandwidth away that the public needs for introspection: how much do I normalize autocracy? That is the first war, the others will follow.

enceladus06 1y ago

Why is selling China AI a bad thing? Free market is better. I'd like to buy a BYD Electric Car, but apparently the US Government (Biden and Trump Admins) think that is a bad thing too.

lordofgibbons 1y ago
The U.S defense apparatus sees China as its primary adversary. Anything that can help china to develop a stronger economy or military is seen as a threat. Therefore, anything that can create a wide gap between U.S and China's A.I capabilities is seen as attractive.
- tinbad 1y ago
  This comment is framed as if Chinas dictator regime is seeing US as any different. China (and Russia for that matter) had plenty of opportunities to collaborate with rest of world, instead they decided to pursue their own imperialist shenanigans.
dijit 1y ago
Tangent; A lot of people forget that the basis of the European Economic Area and European Union was to promote free trade with the sole intent purpose of making future wars unthinkable. As in, if Britain depends on France for power, and France depends on Britain for pharmaceuticals- going to war with each other becomes intentionally difficult to the point of near impossibility without extremely good reasons. If you want your opponent to know that you don't mind going to war, a good option is to ensure you don't "depend" on them for anything, and to cut them off from getting good things from you that might aid them.
- throw0101d 1y ago
  > A lot of people forget that the basis of the European Economic Area and European Union was to promote free trade with the sole intent purpose of making future wars unthinkable. And that was one of the reason for letting China into the WTO: the thinking is they'd prosper and the citizens would see the advantages of capitalism and economic liberalization would lead to political liberalization. How's Chinese political liberalization coming along? (Remember that Europeans generally had political liberalization before WW2.)

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

bigcat12345678 1y ago

I am confused why people still claim diffusion rule or any form of tech embargos work at all. Isnt it clear that tech cannot be contained. If China cannot invent, they'll steal (actually, anyone will do that). The key is to build a system that everyone more or less consider themselves better off than any alternative.

bgwalter 1y ago

They are reliable allies in the sense that their significant US assets can be frozen, the US can favor a crown prince and that the Wahhabi people in Syria that are being used against Iran are currently the best friends of the West. Also, potentially selling latest gen chips to China is an overblown problem.

martythemaniak 1y ago

> It is possible, given sufficiently strong agreement details (which are not yet public and may not be finalized) and private unvoiced considerations, that this deal contains sufficient safeguards and justifications that, absent ability to fix other American policy failures, this decision is superior to the available alternatives. This is a great example of how incredibly stupid smart people can be. They take obvious bullshit at face value, then spend their lives arguing over insane made-up details of that bullshit. It'd be funny if they didn't end up enabling the bullshit grifters. Trump is very simple. Give him praise, give him money and he'll give you some public concession he controls. He operates like every other despot in the history of the world. Nothing new or interesting about it. You're an Emir and want some chips? Give him praise, give him money, and he'll change the rules so you can have your chips. If your thinking is more complicated than this, it's wrong.

maxglute 1y ago

Obvious propaganda lens is to fixate on PRC when MENA AI = don't need to follow US regulations. Too many content creators in the west whose going to cause trouble once AI becomes truly disruptive. Biden diffusion rule more about ccontrol with tiered partners, Trump about business and capture.