Model risk — events of such magnitude may affect the probability of existence of Manifold, betting markets in general, and even the US dollar (in USSR-Russia tr

Model risk — events of such magnitude may affect the probability of existence of Manifold, betting markets in general, and even the US dollar (in USSR-Russia transition, roubles were made worthless three times in a row). Unless you are an actuarial expert with decades of experience in hedging geopolitical risks, you cannot meaningfully trade such events.