4 ms·

The genie is out of the bottle, the die is cast, etc. We’re not going back to what was before. I’d only put 60/40 odds on the 2028 election not being temporari

The genie is out of the bottle, the die is cast, etc. We’re not going back to what was before. I’d only put 60/40 odds on the 2028 election not being temporarily suspended due to a state of emergency.

rogerrogerr 1y ago
60/40 feels very pessimistic to me (meaning I think the election is more than 60% likely to occur on Nov 7, 2028 and the results heeded more or less as usual). If you think 60/40 is the right odds, you have some opportunities available - to make fake dollars, at least: https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-donald-trump-attempt-to-suspen?r=cm9icGVyeQ https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-donald-trump-attempt-t... I bet you could find more than a few people here to take the other side of 60/40 odds in a $100 bet.
- rogerrogerr 1y ago
  In a different comment so people can vote on this idea independently: I am not a Trump supporter, but I have many Trump-supporting people I interact with on a level that I don’t think they’re lying to me. Without fail, every one of them has a _visceral_ negative reaction to a hypothetical Trump 2028 term. It’s stunning. This is not a “I wouldn’t vote for a felon/rapist/whatever” type of red line that falls apart when you question it - they are universally against it. I sincerely think screwing with the election terms or dates to prolong Trump’s term is likely to cause immediate and shocking support evaporation. Enough to embolden Congress to do stuff, and he won’t have enough control over any armed agency to do anything to Congress. I think that a Trump who is trying to avoid prosecution for $crimes is much more likely to throw his weight behind a GOP candidate in early 2028. Vance or whoever. That’s his best chance to stay out of jail (for prosecutions political or legitimate, doesn’t matter). After a few solid months of propping up another GOP candidate, Trump’s base will be even less rabid about him specifically. He’s going to be old news in late 2028. If Trump doesn’t support another candidate in 2028, then I’d start to worry. I just don’t see it happening - the game theory very obviously says he must support a not-him candidate by early 2028, and doing that will make it even harder to pull off shenanigans.
  - TimorousBestie 1y ago
    > Without fail, every one of them has a _visceral_ negative reaction to a hypothetical Trump 2028 term. I don’t want to argue against your lived experience, but somebody is buying all those hats and yard signs.
    - rogerrogerr 1y ago
      Yeah - I think there’s a very small core of people who genuinely think Trump will win a third term, and a slightly larger core of people who want him to. Then a much larger set of people who are engaging in some very unwise trolling. I just think it’s telling that all the rabid Trump supporters I know aren’t there. Zero of them want to see him on the ballot a fourth time or otherwise pull shenanigans.
      - TimorousBestie 1y ago
        Your account is reassuring to me, yes.
      - ndsipa_pomu 1y ago
        Surely if shenanigans around changing eligibility to vote and maybe a bit of tampering with vote machines (won't be detected if there's no-one around with the authority to validate voting), then it won't matter if Trump has many supporters or not. I would expect him and his handlers to look to other authoritarian regimes to see how to safely have democratic votes without any chance of losing power.
      - int_19h 1y ago
        At this point they don't even know who he'll be running against. But put a name there, and I guarantee you that they will immediately flip and claim that they have to support Trump, because the alternative is going to be literal communism or whatever.
  - ModernMech 1y ago
    > Without fail, every one of them has a _visceral_ negative reaction to a hypothetical Trump 2028 term. They said the same thing on Jan 6, 2021. Trump supporters had a very negative visceral reaction to that day. But on Jan 7, 2021 the propaganda machine started up again and minds began changing one by one. Today, the very people who were running for their lives on Jan 6 are in support of officially teaching in schools that the 2020 election was stolen by Democrats -- the very lie that cause the violence of the day, that caused so many to say "I do not support this". Four years later they voted for it again. So when I hear tales of a Trump voter who is against something Trump has done, I just remember that they voted for him again after he caused an insurrection against the United States in an attempt to illegally overthrow a free and fair election. If a voter can find their way to excusing that, they will find their way to excusing a third term. Here's how: "Yeah it's not ideal, but what am I supposed to do? Vote for a Democrat? They would be worse. We are choosing the lesser of two evils." Works every time.
- Spooky23 1y ago
  We already had a coup attempt in 2020. Do you think the current VP has the integrity of VP Pence?
  - UncleOxidant 1y ago
    *2021
    - Y-bar 1y ago
      I would say you are both correct. The coup began in 2020 with the widespread lies about the election and smaller attempts at using violence to affect the outcome. E.g. where armed men appeared outside voting booths. Or when the Biden-Harris bus was forcefully stopped in Texas: https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2024/a-trump-train-convoy-surrounded-a-biden-harris-bus-was-it-political-violence/ https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2024/a-trump-tr... Then the clear culmination happened on Jan 6, 2021, that is certainly correct as well.
  - whatshisface 1y ago
    It isn't going to be easy to transfer the cult of personality from Stalin to Beria. :-) If they consolidated the police state by then they could transfer that, not so much the cult of personality.
    - atemerev 1y ago
      The cult — maybe. But if you are bringing a comparison with the Soviet system — the autocracy itself remained for 40 more years, only to be promptly reinstated through Putin.
    - intended 1y ago
      You dont have a cult. You have an ecosystem that created an alternative reality. Its structural, not individual. This idea that its a strange aberration of faith - Trump isn't the problem, hes just evidence that the efforts to counter watergate are working. Its the Bannons, Stones and Murdochs of the world that create the media world for someone like Trump to exist.
- atemerev 1y ago
  Model risk — events of such magnitude may affect the probability of existence of Manifold, betting markets in general, and even the US dollar (in USSR-Russia transition, roubles were made worthless three times in a row). Unless you are an actuarial expert with decades of experience in hedging geopolitical risks, you cannot meaningfully trade such events.
- yatopifo 1y ago
  This approach seems overly mechanistic to me. You can have an election, and yet the results of said election can be completely predetermined like they have been in russia for the past 20 years or so. The US toyed with gerrymandering and disenfranchisement even before it officially embraced the current flavour of fascism. So the soil is fertile enough to take the next logic step towards a full dictatorship.
klntsky 1y ago
[flagged]
- intermerda 1y ago
  Can you elaborate? What do you mean?
  - eschaton 1y ago
    [flagged]
  - klntsky 1y ago
    The status quo of the US society was largely overwritten by a single man back then. This included extraordinary (for the US) measures like expropriating gold[0] and The New Deal (which concentrated a lot of power in the hands of the state). But then everything went back to normal (he's the reason why there is a maximum of 2 presidential terms now). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
- eschaton 1y ago
  [flagged]
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
gman83 1y ago
There will definitely be elections, even Putin has elections. The question is whether those elections will be fair.

rogerrogerr 1y ago

60/40 feels very pessimistic to me (meaning I think the election is more than 60% likely to occur on Nov 7, 2028 and the results heeded more or less as usual). If you think 60/40 is the right odds, you have some opportunities available - to make fake dollars, at least: https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-donald-trump-attempt-to-suspen?r=cm9icGVyeQ https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-donald-trump-attempt-t... I bet you could find more than a few people here to take the other side of 60/40 odds in a $100 bet.

rogerrogerr 1y ago
In a different comment so people can vote on this idea independently: I am not a Trump supporter, but I have many Trump-supporting people I interact with on a level that I don’t think they’re lying to me. Without fail, every one of them has a _visceral_ negative reaction to a hypothetical Trump 2028 term. It’s stunning. This is not a “I wouldn’t vote for a felon/rapist/whatever” type of red line that falls apart when you question it - they are universally against it. I sincerely think screwing with the election terms or dates to prolong Trump’s term is likely to cause immediate and shocking support evaporation. Enough to embolden Congress to do stuff, and he won’t have enough control over any armed agency to do anything to Congress. I think that a Trump who is trying to avoid prosecution for $crimes is much more likely to throw his weight behind a GOP candidate in early 2028. Vance or whoever. That’s his best chance to stay out of jail (for prosecutions political or legitimate, doesn’t matter). After a few solid months of propping up another GOP candidate, Trump’s base will be even less rabid about him specifically. He’s going to be old news in late 2028. If Trump doesn’t support another candidate in 2028, then I’d start to worry. I just don’t see it happening - the game theory very obviously says he must support a not-him candidate by early 2028, and doing that will make it even harder to pull off shenanigans.
- TimorousBestie 1y ago
  > Without fail, every one of them has a _visceral_ negative reaction to a hypothetical Trump 2028 term. I don’t want to argue against your lived experience, but somebody is buying all those hats and yard signs.
  - rogerrogerr 1y ago
    Yeah - I think there’s a very small core of people who genuinely think Trump will win a third term, and a slightly larger core of people who want him to. Then a much larger set of people who are engaging in some very unwise trolling. I just think it’s telling that all the rabid Trump supporters I know aren’t there. Zero of them want to see him on the ballot a fourth time or otherwise pull shenanigans.
    - TimorousBestie 1y ago
      Your account is reassuring to me, yes.
    - ndsipa_pomu 1y ago
      Surely if shenanigans around changing eligibility to vote and maybe a bit of tampering with vote machines (won't be detected if there's no-one around with the authority to validate voting), then it won't matter if Trump has many supporters or not. I would expect him and his handlers to look to other authoritarian regimes to see how to safely have democratic votes without any chance of losing power.
    - int_19h 1y ago
      At this point they don't even know who he'll be running against. But put a name there, and I guarantee you that they will immediately flip and claim that they have to support Trump, because the alternative is going to be literal communism or whatever.
- ModernMech 1y ago
  > Without fail, every one of them has a _visceral_ negative reaction to a hypothetical Trump 2028 term. They said the same thing on Jan 6, 2021. Trump supporters had a very negative visceral reaction to that day. But on Jan 7, 2021 the propaganda machine started up again and minds began changing one by one. Today, the very people who were running for their lives on Jan 6 are in support of officially teaching in schools that the 2020 election was stolen by Democrats -- the very lie that cause the violence of the day, that caused so many to say "I do not support this". Four years later they voted for it again. So when I hear tales of a Trump voter who is against something Trump has done, I just remember that they voted for him again after he caused an insurrection against the United States in an attempt to illegally overthrow a free and fair election. If a voter can find their way to excusing that, they will find their way to excusing a third term. Here's how: "Yeah it's not ideal, but what am I supposed to do? Vote for a Democrat? They would be worse. We are choosing the lesser of two evils." Works every time.
Spooky23 1y ago
We already had a coup attempt in 2020. Do you think the current VP has the integrity of VP Pence?
- UncleOxidant 1y ago
  *2021
  - Y-bar 1y ago
    I would say you are both correct. The coup began in 2020 with the widespread lies about the election and smaller attempts at using violence to affect the outcome. E.g. where armed men appeared outside voting booths. Or when the Biden-Harris bus was forcefully stopped in Texas: https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2024/a-trump-train-convoy-surrounded-a-biden-harris-bus-was-it-political-violence/ https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2024/a-trump-tr... Then the clear culmination happened on Jan 6, 2021, that is certainly correct as well.
- whatshisface 1y ago
  It isn't going to be easy to transfer the cult of personality from Stalin to Beria. :-) If they consolidated the police state by then they could transfer that, not so much the cult of personality.
  - atemerev 1y ago
    The cult — maybe. But if you are bringing a comparison with the Soviet system — the autocracy itself remained for 40 more years, only to be promptly reinstated through Putin.
  - intended 1y ago
    You dont have a cult. You have an ecosystem that created an alternative reality. Its structural, not individual. This idea that its a strange aberration of faith - Trump isn't the problem, hes just evidence that the efforts to counter watergate are working. Its the Bannons, Stones and Murdochs of the world that create the media world for someone like Trump to exist.
atemerev 1y ago
Model risk — events of such magnitude may affect the probability of existence of Manifold, betting markets in general, and even the US dollar (in USSR-Russia transition, roubles were made worthless three times in a row). Unless you are an actuarial expert with decades of experience in hedging geopolitical risks, you cannot meaningfully trade such events.
yatopifo 1y ago
This approach seems overly mechanistic to me. You can have an election, and yet the results of said election can be completely predetermined like they have been in russia for the past 20 years or so. The US toyed with gerrymandering and disenfranchisement even before it officially embraced the current flavour of fascism. So the soil is fertile enough to take the next logic step towards a full dictatorship.

klntsky 1y ago

[flagged]

intermerda 1y ago
Can you elaborate? What do you mean?
- eschaton 1y ago
  [flagged]
- klntsky 1y ago
  The status quo of the US society was largely overwritten by a single man back then. This included extraordinary (for the US) measures like expropriating gold[0] and The New Deal (which concentrated a lot of power in the hands of the state). But then everything went back to normal (he's the reason why there is a maximum of 2 presidential terms now). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
eschaton 1y ago
[flagged]

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

gman83 1y ago

There will definitely be elections, even Putin has elections. The question is whether those elections will be fair.