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2016 blocks is a lot though. that's nearly $700 million in mining fees. if someone had a monopoly on chips like these, they could dominate the network and free

2016 blocks is a lot though. that's nearly $700 million in mining fees. if someone had a monopoly on chips like these, they could dominate the network and freeze out other miners. which would likely tank the network and make those BTC worthless

Someone 1y ago
That is a risk but not a new risk. It existed with the transition to ASIC miners, too, and didn’t happen. I guess that didn’t happen because making ASICs is relatively easy, but even if it isn’t, what would be in it for a potential monopolist to tank the value of bitcoin in that way? They better take a large but not overly large part of the market and keep mining money for a long time, only speeding up when a competitor steps in.
- jorvi 1y ago
  > what would be in it for a potential monopolist to tank the value of bitcoin in that way? Shorting BTC. But you'd have to gather a humongous mining farm / pool in secret, wait until right after the recalibration and then turn on everything at once, mining those 2016 faster. People would panic, enabling you to close your short positions. After those 2016 blocks you can just keep mining for a regular return, although I'd just sell the farm to an organisation interested in doing so. It's a fun theoretical attack, if capital intensive. And aside from the short positions (which you can cover instead of going naked), your capital isn't at risk because the worst result is that you'll own a crypto mining farm.
  - sigwinch 1y ago
    Presenting a quantum breakthrough could be cheaper than cornering noticeable capacity.
  - Someone 1y ago
    > because the worst result is that you'll own a crypto mining farm. Bitcoin is fairly popular among criminals, so you might also get some people visit you to argue that is best for both of you to give them back the money they lost, using strong arguments such as threats of bodily harm.
    - TheOtherHobbes 1y ago
      With enough money you can buy security to keep yourself safe from low/mid criminals. Angry rogue nation states might be harder to deal with.
      - iwontberude 1y ago
        They've had more time to prepare than you which is their edge in the game.

Someone 1y ago

That is a risk but not a new risk. It existed with the transition to ASIC miners, too, and didn’t happen. I guess that didn’t happen because making ASICs is relatively easy, but even if it isn’t, what would be in it for a potential monopolist to tank the value of bitcoin in that way? They better take a large but not overly large part of the market and keep mining money for a long time, only speeding up when a competitor steps in.

jorvi 1y ago
> what would be in it for a potential monopolist to tank the value of bitcoin in that way? Shorting BTC. But you'd have to gather a humongous mining farm / pool in secret, wait until right after the recalibration and then turn on everything at once, mining those 2016 faster. People would panic, enabling you to close your short positions. After those 2016 blocks you can just keep mining for a regular return, although I'd just sell the farm to an organisation interested in doing so. It's a fun theoretical attack, if capital intensive. And aside from the short positions (which you can cover instead of going naked), your capital isn't at risk because the worst result is that you'll own a crypto mining farm.
- sigwinch 1y ago
  Presenting a quantum breakthrough could be cheaper than cornering noticeable capacity.
- Someone 1y ago
  > because the worst result is that you'll own a crypto mining farm. Bitcoin is fairly popular among criminals, so you might also get some people visit you to argue that is best for both of you to give them back the money they lost, using strong arguments such as threats of bodily harm.
  - TheOtherHobbes 1y ago
    With enough money you can buy security to keep yourself safe from low/mid criminals. Angry rogue nation states might be harder to deal with.
    - iwontberude 1y ago
      They've had more time to prepare than you which is their edge in the game.