4 ms·

curious how the ai experts are so wrong on truck drivers. apparent to anyone whos been on the road the US road system will be completely revamped before self dr

curious how the ai experts are so wrong on truck drivers. apparent to anyone whos been on the road the US road system will be completely revamped before self driving cargo trucks are viable

mjr00 1y ago
Self-driving vehicles are the perfect example of how something that seems so close can be so far away. April 29, 2014 - "Milken 2014: Driverless cars due in five years"[0] Nov 24, 2015 - "Ford is 5 years away from self-driving cars"[1] Oct 20, 2016 - "A Driverless Tesla Will Travel From L.A. to NYC by 2017"[2] Now general consensus is level 5 autonomous self-driving is decades away, at least. [0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/04/29/milken-self-driving-cars/8451889/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/04/29/milken-... [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-is-5-years-away-from-self-driving-cars-2015-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-is-5-years-away-from-se... [2] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will-travel-l-nyc-2017-says-musk-n670206 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will...
- romaaeterna 1y ago
  The general consensus may be whatever it is, but a Tesla can drive from L.A. to NYC today with no interventions other than at charging stops.
  - staunton 1y ago
    However, it might kill you and other people at any moment, so be ready for that intervention...
    - romaaeterna 1y ago
      And the same is true for a human driver. I imagine that you could differentiate on accidents per vehicle mile.
      - yusina 1y ago
        That's a false equivalence. Autonomous vehicles need to be significantly safer than human drivers to be allowed on the streets. If a human driver kills or injures somebody or damages property, they are responsible and will face consequences. An autonomous car won't. The typical tech person will reply to this with some variant of "that shouldn't matter". Well, it does.
        romaaeterna 1y ago
        You are responding to this thread as if we were arguing for these cars "being allowed on the streets". That is not the discussion here. Instead, we are talking about AI capacity.
        mjr00 1y ago
        Saying that a Tesla can drive autonomously from LA to NYC, except it can't in reality because other cars are on the road and it might kill someone, is an odd way to frame it. It's like saying Windows 95 doesn't have any security flaws, as long as you don't connect it to the internet.
        romaaeterna 1y ago
        You: Autonomous driving is years away Me: My Tesla takes me 20min to work every day without human intervention, and on long trips of hundreds of miles You: This is illegal because it might kill someone Call the police on Tesla, I guess?
        mjr00 1y ago
        You mean your "self-driving" Tesla where you're still sitting in the driver's seat with your hands on the wheel (they are on the wheel, unless you want to admit to a crime)?
        romaaeterna 1y ago
- babyent 1y ago
  Waymo works really well.
  - lm28469 1y ago
    For now Waymo is only used in a few grid cities in southern US where the weather is extremely nice. It's a prime example of the 80/20 problem and a prime example of what the comment your replying to mentions.
    - echelon 1y ago
      Self-driving is solved and is scaling up. They're deploying Waymo in Atlanta now and they're already driving around sans-humans. Atlanta is not a grid. Atlanta has crazy and dangerous road design. Random roads built in random places. Potholes, lots of hills, sharp angles, lack of shoulders, no margin or protection from 45mph oncoming traffic (90mph delta with ZERO margin or division), weird infrastructure, five and six and even seven way intersections, pedestrians, jaywalkers, motorcycle gangs that ride in the wrong lanes. You name it, Atlanta's got it. Atlanta has lots of weather. Tremendous amounts of subtropical rain in the summer, fog, and other low visibility and dangerous conditions. Intermittent summer rain that pours so hard that it's a literal rain curtain white out. Seasonal tornadoes. Self-driving is here now. It'll be everywhere by the end of the decade. I can't wait to buy my own Waymo-equipped vehicle.
      - lm28469 1y ago
        It was supposed to be everywhere by 2020 and even earlier lol, I'll believe it when I'll see it, until then it's wishful thinking or investors talk
        echelon 1y ago
        > I'll believe it when I'll see it That time when people had blocky cell phones. Then they were in everybody's pocket. That's self-driving now. It's here, just uneven. You can ride in one today. Soon, it'll be taking over for trucking, delivering everything you can think of on-demand, and revolutionizing how we think about transit and travel. Instacart and Uber Eats and Amazon same-day are blocky cell phones. Soon we'll have instant logistics. A ten times faster Amazon. A world where almost everything can be delivered instantly and cheaply. Trains and subways and metros are rigid and inflexible transit corridors. Soon we'll have last-mile transit pods for everyone that connect everything and everywhere and make suburbs highly desirable and sought after again. Self-driving will be like the internet or smartphones all over again. And we're right at the precipice. The financial gradients of all of this ensure that it'll happen and that it'll happen fast and all at once once we get past the inflection point. But back to your point: you wouldn't call those blocky cell phone users non-cellphone users. The tech just wasn't evenly distributed. It got there in short time, because the tech was world-changing. So too shall it be with self-driving. The economic advantages are inevitable.
- dinfinity 1y ago
  > Self-driving vehicles are the perfect example of how something that seems so close can be so far away. Remember that this was before transformers, LLMs, and more recently VLM/VLAMs, though. I'm not sure to what extent these are already integrated in self-driving hardware, but I would not be surprised if we see a big improvement in self-driving due to related technologies soon, especially with the smaller models becoming far more (efficient and) potent.
  - radium3d 1y ago
    We have already seen the big improvement in Tesla FSD. Have you test driven it recently? The most impressive part for me was it driving us all the way into the parking lot and parking us in a spot at the destination.
horhay 1y ago
The thing about that recent rollout of self-driving trucks is they picked a stretch of road connecting Houston to another shipping point in a very straight line. And they bragged about 2000 "unassisted" miles on that stretch of road which is ~250 miles in length. So they're basically championing the idea that their trucks which have driven about less than 10 trips without an on-vehicle driver in that area is competent enough to be relied upon in a real work capacity. Whether this amount of success is proof that there won't be any issues with the tech in that area, remains to be seen. Hell, they're not even interested yet in talking about how this may pan out outside their Houston trial runs.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]

curious how the ai experts are so wrong on truck drivers. apparent to anyone whos been on the road the US road system will be completely revamped before self driving cargo trucks are viable

mjr00 1y ago

Self-driving vehicles are the perfect example of how something that seems so close can be so far away. April 29, 2014 - "Milken 2014: Driverless cars due in five years"[0] Nov 24, 2015 - "Ford is 5 years away from self-driving cars"[1] Oct 20, 2016 - "A Driverless Tesla Will Travel From L.A. to NYC by 2017"[2] Now general consensus is level 5 autonomous self-driving is decades away, at least. [0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/04/29/milken-self-driving-cars/8451889/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/04/29/milken-... [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-is-5-years-away-from-self-driving-cars-2015-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-is-5-years-away-from-se... [2] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will-travel-l-nyc-2017-says-musk-n670206 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will...

romaaeterna 1y ago
The general consensus may be whatever it is, but a Tesla can drive from L.A. to NYC today with no interventions other than at charging stops.
- staunton 1y ago
  However, it might kill you and other people at any moment, so be ready for that intervention...
  - romaaeterna 1y ago
    And the same is true for a human driver. I imagine that you could differentiate on accidents per vehicle mile.
    - yusina 1y ago
      That's a false equivalence. Autonomous vehicles need to be significantly safer than human drivers to be allowed on the streets. If a human driver kills or injures somebody or damages property, they are responsible and will face consequences. An autonomous car won't. The typical tech person will reply to this with some variant of "that shouldn't matter". Well, it does.
      - romaaeterna 1y ago
        You are responding to this thread as if we were arguing for these cars "being allowed on the streets". That is not the discussion here. Instead, we are talking about AI capacity.
        mjr00 1y ago
        Saying that a Tesla can drive autonomously from LA to NYC, except it can't in reality because other cars are on the road and it might kill someone, is an odd way to frame it. It's like saying Windows 95 doesn't have any security flaws, as long as you don't connect it to the internet.
        romaaeterna 1y ago
        You: Autonomous driving is years away Me: My Tesla takes me 20min to work every day without human intervention, and on long trips of hundreds of miles You: This is illegal because it might kill someone Call the police on Tesla, I guess?
        mjr00 1y ago
        You mean your "self-driving" Tesla where you're still sitting in the driver's seat with your hands on the wheel (they are on the wheel, unless you want to admit to a crime)?
        romaaeterna 1y ago
babyent 1y ago
Waymo works really well.
- lm28469 1y ago
  For now Waymo is only used in a few grid cities in southern US where the weather is extremely nice. It's a prime example of the 80/20 problem and a prime example of what the comment your replying to mentions.
  - echelon 1y ago
    Self-driving is solved and is scaling up. They're deploying Waymo in Atlanta now and they're already driving around sans-humans. Atlanta is not a grid. Atlanta has crazy and dangerous road design. Random roads built in random places. Potholes, lots of hills, sharp angles, lack of shoulders, no margin or protection from 45mph oncoming traffic (90mph delta with ZERO margin or division), weird infrastructure, five and six and even seven way intersections, pedestrians, jaywalkers, motorcycle gangs that ride in the wrong lanes. You name it, Atlanta's got it. Atlanta has lots of weather. Tremendous amounts of subtropical rain in the summer, fog, and other low visibility and dangerous conditions. Intermittent summer rain that pours so hard that it's a literal rain curtain white out. Seasonal tornadoes. Self-driving is here now. It'll be everywhere by the end of the decade. I can't wait to buy my own Waymo-equipped vehicle.
    - lm28469 1y ago
      It was supposed to be everywhere by 2020 and even earlier lol, I'll believe it when I'll see it, until then it's wishful thinking or investors talk
      - echelon 1y ago
        > I'll believe it when I'll see it That time when people had blocky cell phones. Then they were in everybody's pocket. That's self-driving now. It's here, just uneven. You can ride in one today. Soon, it'll be taking over for trucking, delivering everything you can think of on-demand, and revolutionizing how we think about transit and travel. Instacart and Uber Eats and Amazon same-day are blocky cell phones. Soon we'll have instant logistics. A ten times faster Amazon. A world where almost everything can be delivered instantly and cheaply. Trains and subways and metros are rigid and inflexible transit corridors. Soon we'll have last-mile transit pods for everyone that connect everything and everywhere and make suburbs highly desirable and sought after again. Self-driving will be like the internet or smartphones all over again. And we're right at the precipice. The financial gradients of all of this ensure that it'll happen and that it'll happen fast and all at once once we get past the inflection point. But back to your point: you wouldn't call those blocky cell phone users non-cellphone users. The tech just wasn't evenly distributed. It got there in short time, because the tech was world-changing. So too shall it be with self-driving. The economic advantages are inevitable.
dinfinity 1y ago
> Self-driving vehicles are the perfect example of how something that seems so close can be so far away. Remember that this was before transformers, LLMs, and more recently VLM/VLAMs, though. I'm not sure to what extent these are already integrated in self-driving hardware, but I would not be surprised if we see a big improvement in self-driving due to related technologies soon, especially with the smaller models becoming far more (efficient and) potent.
- radium3d 1y ago
  We have already seen the big improvement in Tesla FSD. Have you test driven it recently? The most impressive part for me was it driving us all the way into the parking lot and parking us in a spot at the destination.

horhay 1y ago

The thing about that recent rollout of self-driving trucks is they picked a stretch of road connecting Houston to another shipping point in a very straight line. And they bragged about 2000 "unassisted" miles on that stretch of road which is ~250 miles in length. So they're basically championing the idea that their trucks which have driven about less than 10 trips without an on-vehicle driver in that area is competent enough to be relied upon in a real work capacity. Whether this amount of success is proof that there won't be any issues with the tech in that area, remains to be seen. Hell, they're not even interested yet in talking about how this may pan out outside their Houston trial runs.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]