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> There's a reason the moment Japan became a developed country, shipbuilding left for South Korea, and then when SK became developed, it left for China. Now it'

by mmooss 1y ago

> There's a reason the moment Japan became a developed country, shipbuilding left for South Korea, and then when SK became developed, it left for China. Now it's leaving for Philippines (Japan), Indonesia (SK), India (SK, UAE), and Vietnam (SK, UAE) after the Korean and Japanese players got pushed out of China. The list of top shipbuilding countries is mostly wealthy, including SK and Japan at #2 and #3. 1 China 2 South Korea 3 Japan 4 Philippines 5 Italy 6 France 7 Germany 8 Finland 9 Taiwan 10 Russia

alephnerd 1y ago
The share that Japan has today is a fraction of what it was at 50 years ago, and South Korea's is a fraction of where it was 20 years ago. Both Japan and SK's shipbuilding capacity shifted to China by the 1990s and 2000s when their keiretsus and chaebols like Mitsui and Hyundai began investing in CN (and Singapore's Temasek and GIC co-invested in port management and logistics), but both began shifting rapidly away from China in the mid-2010s due to the Senkaku Diaoyu standoff and the THAAD standoff respectively. For example, Japanese shipbuilding conglomerates like Mitsui and Kawasaki began a large partnership with the Philippines to ToT much of their technology and invest in building an alternative capacity in Subic 15ish years ago [0] which helped increase PH's share. HD Hyundai and Hanwa began a similar expansion in Subic over the past 3-4 years as well. HD Hyundai and Hanwha began doing something similar in Vietnam in the past 5 years due to the FTA and VN's industrial incentives for shipbuilding [1] and India's recent PLI over the past year [2][3]. The UAE has been playing a major role on this front as well because DP World has been co-investing in shipbuilding and port capacity in Vietnam (Saigon), India (just about every container port), and SK (BJFEZ) - the largest ports in all 3 countries are either owned or managed by DP World. One of the best strategies I've used in my career is to follow where and what Abu Dhabi and Dubai affiliated SWFs and SOEs invest or partner in - they have become similar to what Temasek and GIC were 20-30 years ago. [0] - https://www.offshore-energy.biz/japanese-shipbuilders-encouraged-to-invest-in-philippine-shipbuilding-sector/ https://www.offshore-energy.biz/japanese-shipbuilders-encour... [1] - https://www.mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/l/newsdetails?dDocName=MOFUCM335241 https://www.mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/l/news... [2] - https://oceanpress.co.kr/news/article.html?no=26769 https://oceanpress.co.kr/news/article.html?no=26769 [3] - https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202412269312b https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202412269312b

by mmooss 1y ago

alephnerd 1y ago

The share that Japan has today is a fraction of what it was at 50 years ago, and South Korea's is a fraction of where it was 20 years ago. Both Japan and SK's shipbuilding capacity shifted to China by the 1990s and 2000s when their keiretsus and chaebols like Mitsui and Hyundai began investing in CN (and Singapore's Temasek and GIC co-invested in port management and logistics), but both began shifting rapidly away from China in the mid-2010s due to the Senkaku Diaoyu standoff and the THAAD standoff respectively. For example, Japanese shipbuilding conglomerates like Mitsui and Kawasaki began a large partnership with the Philippines to ToT much of their technology and invest in building an alternative capacity in Subic 15ish years ago [0] which helped increase PH's share. HD Hyundai and Hanwa began a similar expansion in Subic over the past 3-4 years as well. HD Hyundai and Hanwha began doing something similar in Vietnam in the past 5 years due to the FTA and VN's industrial incentives for shipbuilding [1] and India's recent PLI over the past year [2][3]. The UAE has been playing a major role on this front as well because DP World has been co-investing in shipbuilding and port capacity in Vietnam (Saigon), India (just about every container port), and SK (BJFEZ) - the largest ports in all 3 countries are either owned or managed by DP World. One of the best strategies I've used in my career is to follow where and what Abu Dhabi and Dubai affiliated SWFs and SOEs invest or partner in - they have become similar to what Temasek and GIC were 20-30 years ago. [0] - https://www.offshore-energy.biz/japanese-shipbuilders-encouraged-to-invest-in-philippine-shipbuilding-sector/ https://www.offshore-energy.biz/japanese-shipbuilders-encour... [1] - https://www.mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/l/newsdetails?dDocName=MOFUCM335241 https://www.mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/l/news... [2] - https://oceanpress.co.kr/news/article.html?no=26769 https://oceanpress.co.kr/news/article.html?no=26769 [3] - https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202412269312b https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202412269312b