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Shipbuilding is strategic, but it's unglamorous and projects go wildly over budget. This is why the UK has so few ships in rotation now. In the US shipbuilding

by Hilift 1y ago

Shipbuilding is strategic, but it's unglamorous and projects go wildly over budget. This is why the UK has so few ships in rotation now. In the US shipbuilding is anemic, particularly submarines. The "AUKUS" project was really an attempt at life support. The work is really hot (or cold), dust and noise everywhere. Most people don't tolerate it for long. Recently a major contractor was caught for skipping required procedures for welds. The USS Columbia was authorized in 2016, I haven't seen it or the new steam turbine that it is supposed to have. Grumman was awarded the turbine contract in 2014, it was supposed to be delivered in 2021, and it still isn't ready. They had to prepare a huge report to Congress. Each Columbia boat is estimated to cost $15.2 billion. Trump keeps complaining about getting manufacturing back and we can't even build ships that are fully funded + incentive bonuses. https://news.usni.org/2024/10/31/hii-fewer-than-2-dozen-shipyard-workers-involved-in-suspect-welds-delay-in-17-sub-contract-creates-unpredictability https://news.usni.org/2024/10/31/hii-fewer-than-2-dozen-ship... https://news.usni.org/2024/04/10/late-turbines-have-major-impact-on-columbia-sub-delivery-schedule-says-secnav https://news.usni.org/2024/04/10/late-turbines-have-major-im... https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R41129 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R41129

alephnerd 1y ago
This! Until you've visited an actual shipyard, you won't realize how much it sucks as a workplace There's a reason the moment Japan became a developed country, shipbuilding left for South Korea, and then when SK became developed, it left for China. Now it's leaving for Philippines (Japan), Indonesia (SK), India (SK, UAE), and Vietnam (SK, UAE) after the Korean and Japanese players got pushed out of China.
- cgio 1y ago
  I am not sure whether it sucks as a workplace. My memories from Greece were that shipyard employees were complaining they don’t get to build ships anymore. What sucks is probably the cost management that comes with the unique combination of capital intensive alongside specialist skills.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    I'm not sure about the labor conditions in European shipbuilding hubs like Greece, but in SK labor and safety laws remain fairly laggard. When I visited the Ulsan port a decade ago it was fairly common to see migrant workers from China, Thailand, and Vietnam working in not great conditions (low pay, long hours, weak unionization, and a surprising lack of safety equipment like harnesses) It's something I noticed a lot in Korean manufacting to be honest - once you scrape behind the Hallyu Wave you can see standards remain laggard, as was seen with the battery factory explosion a couple months back.
- mmooss 1y ago
  > There's a reason the moment Japan became a developed country, shipbuilding left for South Korea, and then when SK became developed, it left for China. Now it's leaving for Philippines (Japan), Indonesia (SK), India (SK, UAE), and Vietnam (SK, UAE) after the Korean and Japanese players got pushed out of China. The list of top shipbuilding countries is mostly wealthy, including SK and Japan at #2 and #3. 1 China 2 South Korea 3 Japan 4 Philippines 5 Italy 6 France 7 Germany 8 Finland 9 Taiwan 10 Russia
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    The share that Japan has today is a fraction of what it was at 50 years ago, and South Korea's is a fraction of where it was 20 years ago. Both Japan and SK's shipbuilding capacity shifted to China by the 1990s and 2000s when their keiretsus and chaebols like Mitsui and Hyundai began investing in CN (and Singapore's Temasek and GIC co-invested in port management and logistics), but both began shifting rapidly away from China in the mid-2010s due to the Senkaku Diaoyu standoff and the THAAD standoff respectively. For example, Japanese shipbuilding conglomerates like Mitsui and Kawasaki began a large partnership with the Philippines to ToT much of their technology and invest in building an alternative capacity in Subic 15ish years ago [0] which helped increase PH's share. HD Hyundai and Hanwa began a similar expansion in Subic over the past 3-4 years as well. HD Hyundai and Hanwha began doing something similar in Vietnam in the past 5 years due to the FTA and VN's industrial incentives for shipbuilding [1] and India's recent PLI over the past year [2][3]. The UAE has been playing a major role on this front as well because DP World has been co-investing in shipbuilding and port capacity in Vietnam (Saigon), India (just about every container port), and SK (BJFEZ) - the largest ports in all 3 countries are either owned or managed by DP World. One of the best strategies I've used in my career is to follow where and what Abu Dhabi and Dubai affiliated SWFs and SOEs invest or partner in - they have become similar to what Temasek and GIC were 20-30 years ago. [0] - https://www.offshore-energy.biz/japanese-shipbuilders-encouraged-to-invest-in-philippine-shipbuilding-sector/ https://www.offshore-energy.biz/japanese-shipbuilders-encour... [1] - https://www.mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/l/newsdetails?dDocName=MOFUCM335241 https://www.mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/l/news... [2] - https://oceanpress.co.kr/news/article.html?no=26769 https://oceanpress.co.kr/news/article.html?no=26769 [3] - https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202412269312b https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202412269312b
jltsiren 1y ago
I think the biggest issue is that shipbuilding sucks as a business. Unless you are a large company with many shipyards, you are producing a small number of ships every year, and the ships take a long time to build. Any particular shipyard will likely have gaps between orders due to a number of essentially random factors. If you can't transfer the workers to other shipyards, you have to lay them off. And then you may have hard time getting new orders or hiring the people back once you have work for them. If you are from a country with some shipbuilding, you've probably seen the same news cycle repeat from decade to decade. A shipyard gets a big lucrative order. It delivers a fancy new ship. This repeats for a while. Then the shipyard is in financial trouble, as there are no new orders. People get laid off, but the shipyard goes bankrupt anyway. And then some foreign company buys it, and the cycle starts again.
DrNosferatu 1y ago
The parent comment was flagged??? Why on earth why? Please do explain.
- DrNosferatu 1y ago
  PS: Actually the parent of the parent (could only comment here)

by Hilift 1y ago

alephnerd 1y ago

This! Until you've visited an actual shipyard, you won't realize how much it sucks as a workplace There's a reason the moment Japan became a developed country, shipbuilding left for South Korea, and then when SK became developed, it left for China. Now it's leaving for Philippines (Japan), Indonesia (SK), India (SK, UAE), and Vietnam (SK, UAE) after the Korean and Japanese players got pushed out of China.

cgio 1y ago
I am not sure whether it sucks as a workplace. My memories from Greece were that shipyard employees were complaining they don’t get to build ships anymore. What sucks is probably the cost management that comes with the unique combination of capital intensive alongside specialist skills.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  I'm not sure about the labor conditions in European shipbuilding hubs like Greece, but in SK labor and safety laws remain fairly laggard. When I visited the Ulsan port a decade ago it was fairly common to see migrant workers from China, Thailand, and Vietnam working in not great conditions (low pay, long hours, weak unionization, and a surprising lack of safety equipment like harnesses) It's something I noticed a lot in Korean manufacting to be honest - once you scrape behind the Hallyu Wave you can see standards remain laggard, as was seen with the battery factory explosion a couple months back.
mmooss 1y ago
> There's a reason the moment Japan became a developed country, shipbuilding left for South Korea, and then when SK became developed, it left for China. Now it's leaving for Philippines (Japan), Indonesia (SK), India (SK, UAE), and Vietnam (SK, UAE) after the Korean and Japanese players got pushed out of China. The list of top shipbuilding countries is mostly wealthy, including SK and Japan at #2 and #3. 1 China 2 South Korea 3 Japan 4 Philippines 5 Italy 6 France 7 Germany 8 Finland 9 Taiwan 10 Russia
- alephnerd 1y ago
  The share that Japan has today is a fraction of what it was at 50 years ago, and South Korea's is a fraction of where it was 20 years ago. Both Japan and SK's shipbuilding capacity shifted to China by the 1990s and 2000s when their keiretsus and chaebols like Mitsui and Hyundai began investing in CN (and Singapore's Temasek and GIC co-invested in port management and logistics), but both began shifting rapidly away from China in the mid-2010s due to the Senkaku Diaoyu standoff and the THAAD standoff respectively. For example, Japanese shipbuilding conglomerates like Mitsui and Kawasaki began a large partnership with the Philippines to ToT much of their technology and invest in building an alternative capacity in Subic 15ish years ago [0] which helped increase PH's share. HD Hyundai and Hanwa began a similar expansion in Subic over the past 3-4 years as well. HD Hyundai and Hanwha began doing something similar in Vietnam in the past 5 years due to the FTA and VN's industrial incentives for shipbuilding [1] and India's recent PLI over the past year [2][3]. The UAE has been playing a major role on this front as well because DP World has been co-investing in shipbuilding and port capacity in Vietnam (Saigon), India (just about every container port), and SK (BJFEZ) - the largest ports in all 3 countries are either owned or managed by DP World. One of the best strategies I've used in my career is to follow where and what Abu Dhabi and Dubai affiliated SWFs and SOEs invest or partner in - they have become similar to what Temasek and GIC were 20-30 years ago. [0] - https://www.offshore-energy.biz/japanese-shipbuilders-encouraged-to-invest-in-philippine-shipbuilding-sector/ https://www.offshore-energy.biz/japanese-shipbuilders-encour... [1] - https://www.mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/l/newsdetails?dDocName=MOFUCM335241 https://www.mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/l/news... [2] - https://oceanpress.co.kr/news/article.html?no=26769 https://oceanpress.co.kr/news/article.html?no=26769 [3] - https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202412269312b https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202412269312b

jltsiren 1y ago

I think the biggest issue is that shipbuilding sucks as a business. Unless you are a large company with many shipyards, you are producing a small number of ships every year, and the ships take a long time to build. Any particular shipyard will likely have gaps between orders due to a number of essentially random factors. If you can't transfer the workers to other shipyards, you have to lay them off. And then you may have hard time getting new orders or hiring the people back once you have work for them. If you are from a country with some shipbuilding, you've probably seen the same news cycle repeat from decade to decade. A shipyard gets a big lucrative order. It delivers a fancy new ship. This repeats for a while. Then the shipyard is in financial trouble, as there are no new orders. People get laid off, but the shipyard goes bankrupt anyway. And then some foreign company buys it, and the cycle starts again.

DrNosferatu 1y ago

The parent comment was flagged??? Why on earth why? Please do explain.

DrNosferatu 1y ago
PS: Actually the parent of the parent (could only comment here)