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I am utterly confused. If AGI is around the corner, this means that the economy is going to be destroyed and money are going to lose their meaning. Who is going

I am utterly confused. If AGI is around the corner, this means that the economy is going to be destroyed and money are going to lose their meaning. Who is going to buy your AI gadget? Why spend money on that and Windsurf?

lm28469 1y ago
If AGI is around the corner why are people leaving openai ? Why is openai diversifying ? &c.
robertlagrant 1y ago
The economy isn't going to be destroyed even if AGI were round the corner.
- Snuggly73 1y ago
  Interesting - how do you reconcile mass unemployment with working economy? (And this is honest question from one that is invested and hopeful that their life savings won’t evaporate overnight)
  - robertlagrant 1y ago
    I don't think there's any reason to believe there'll be mass unemployment. Any job where human is cheaper than automation will stay human, or where people want a human and are willing to pay for it. Those jobs are probably most of the jobs, although I don't have data to back that claim up. Also it's worth noting that if automation in the right areas has its intended effects, costs of living should come down, making the cost of a human less, not more[0], and moving the bar for what is worth automating higher and higher [0] modulo policy decisions that raise the cost of living back up
  - palmotea 1y ago
    >> The economy isn't going to be destroyed even if AGI were round the corner. > Interesting - how do you reconcile mass unemployment with working economy? (And this is honest question from one that is invested and hopeful that their life savings won’t evaporate overnight) Define "working economy." Ultimately, "the economy" is the market and the market is about satisfying the desires of the people with the money to participate. The economy will keep working if there's mass unemployment. You reconcile that by realizing the economy isn't a system for taking care of everyone, or optimizing for mass human flourishing. Unemployment just means the money-havers have no use for you anymore, and you can go FOAD.
ludicity 1y ago
I've made this point many times and the only possible answers are: 1. The people promising AGI are lying 2. The people promising AGI don't know what they're saying 3. The people promising AGI are hedging against AGI not eventuating but some intermediate value emerging. This is the most charitable read, but also totally at odds with getting people to invest, since the investment is predicated on AGI achievement The correct answer is almost certainly "some people are silly, some people are grifting, some people think AGI is coming, but all the investment certainly benefits from people conflating AGI with a very good product instead of a world-changing achievement". Eric Schmidt imagining AGI and then speculating that people will like, still be churning out apps, as if humans will need to do that sort of menial labour, just blew my mind and made me question many of the stories I had heard about his intelligence.
- Snuggly73 1y ago
  And Honest Zuck talking how his AGI is going to specialize in ads and entertainment. To whom are you going to sell ads… I dunno - I am rather thinking that they are hedging.
aqme28 1y ago
That's not really what AGI means. The economy will tremendously grow from AGI, it just won't necessarily involve people anymore.
- Snuggly73 1y ago
  The means of production - yes. But to have a working economy I suspect you have to have a matching consumption. Not sure how this works without involving people.
chairmansteve 1y ago
And who needs Jony Ive? The AGI can design the devices. It surely will know best?

lm28469 1y ago

If AGI is around the corner why are people leaving openai ? Why is openai diversifying ? &c.

robertlagrant 1y ago

The economy isn't going to be destroyed even if AGI were round the corner.

Snuggly73 1y ago
Interesting - how do you reconcile mass unemployment with working economy? (And this is honest question from one that is invested and hopeful that their life savings won’t evaporate overnight)
- robertlagrant 1y ago
  I don't think there's any reason to believe there'll be mass unemployment. Any job where human is cheaper than automation will stay human, or where people want a human and are willing to pay for it. Those jobs are probably most of the jobs, although I don't have data to back that claim up. Also it's worth noting that if automation in the right areas has its intended effects, costs of living should come down, making the cost of a human less, not more[0], and moving the bar for what is worth automating higher and higher [0] modulo policy decisions that raise the cost of living back up
- palmotea 1y ago
  >> The economy isn't going to be destroyed even if AGI were round the corner. > Interesting - how do you reconcile mass unemployment with working economy? (And this is honest question from one that is invested and hopeful that their life savings won’t evaporate overnight) Define "working economy." Ultimately, "the economy" is the market and the market is about satisfying the desires of the people with the money to participate. The economy will keep working if there's mass unemployment. You reconcile that by realizing the economy isn't a system for taking care of everyone, or optimizing for mass human flourishing. Unemployment just means the money-havers have no use for you anymore, and you can go FOAD.

ludicity 1y ago

I've made this point many times and the only possible answers are: 1. The people promising AGI are lying 2. The people promising AGI don't know what they're saying 3. The people promising AGI are hedging against AGI not eventuating but some intermediate value emerging. This is the most charitable read, but also totally at odds with getting people to invest, since the investment is predicated on AGI achievement The correct answer is almost certainly "some people are silly, some people are grifting, some people think AGI is coming, but all the investment certainly benefits from people conflating AGI with a very good product instead of a world-changing achievement". Eric Schmidt imagining AGI and then speculating that people will like, still be churning out apps, as if humans will need to do that sort of menial labour, just blew my mind and made me question many of the stories I had heard about his intelligence.

Snuggly73 1y ago
And Honest Zuck talking how his AGI is going to specialize in ads and entertainment. To whom are you going to sell ads… I dunno - I am rather thinking that they are hedging.

aqme28 1y ago

That's not really what AGI means. The economy will tremendously grow from AGI, it just won't necessarily involve people anymore.

Snuggly73 1y ago
The means of production - yes. But to have a working economy I suspect you have to have a matching consumption. Not sure how this works without involving people.

chairmansteve 1y ago

And who needs Jony Ive? The AGI can design the devices. It surely will know best?