>This assumes constant progress It assumes the trendline, as it's constant. Any other assumption is lower probability. >. I remember during the early days of

>This assumes constant progress It assumes the trendline, as it's constant. Any other assumption is lower probability. >. I remember during the early days of self driving cars we were told the same: look how far we’ve come already! We’ll all be in self driving cars within 5 years. And yet, here we are. 5 years is a little speculative. 10 is not. At least for me, whenever I call a taxi, it's always an AI taxi. I no longer have human drivers drive me anywhere. So... that's another trendline for you to follow.