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If you can’t follow the trendline then you can’t reason yourself. Not even joking here. If that’s the bar for “reasoning” AI has already beat it.

osigurdson 1y ago
In terms of capability, the trendline from 2020 to 2023 it is impossibly steep. From 2023 to now is much shallower based on my usage / experience with AI.
- ninetyninenine 1y ago
  That's just about a yearish or more. The trendline I'm talking about is the past 15 years. But that being said, I would say the trendline is the same. LLMs were just an exponential and existential jump in progress that dwarfed anything in the last 15 years. The inevitable slow down after the blip just makes you feel as if it's become much shallower. But in reality, it's the same, and we'll have more and more break throughs.
  - osigurdson 1y ago
    In terms of personal impact, it looks more like a step function that starts in 2022 with incremental improvement after that. Of course, progress was being made prior to that (AlexNet, AlphaGo, Transformers, etc.) but these things didn't have much impact until ChatGPT came along. Once that landed however, things haven't perceptibly changed that much.
necovek 1y ago
If you believe trendlines are guaranteed to remain pointing one way, can you reason?
- ninetyninenine 1y ago
  Maybe if you could "reason" you'll see I never said "guaranteed." Obviously the trendline points to the most probable outcome. If you HAVE to bet, bet on probability. It's the most reasonable answer.
  - necovek 1y ago
    Trendlines are a way to represent some statistical data. Probability can help predict things with enough instances of an event — statistics are only a small part of how we establish a probability of a future event, and a core ingredient of even that small part is having a sufficiently representative sample (which "trendlines" usually don't). Eg. you can get statistics for all the winning lottery tickets from the last 5 years — that won't help you predict the next one. Stop confusing the two.
    - ninetyninenine 1y ago
      It’s probability. If a trending or pattern exists there’s a higher probability that the pattern continues into the future. No such pattern exists for the lottery. Stop being stupid.

osigurdson 1y ago

In terms of capability, the trendline from 2020 to 2023 it is impossibly steep. From 2023 to now is much shallower based on my usage / experience with AI.

ninetyninenine 1y ago
That's just about a yearish or more. The trendline I'm talking about is the past 15 years. But that being said, I would say the trendline is the same. LLMs were just an exponential and existential jump in progress that dwarfed anything in the last 15 years. The inevitable slow down after the blip just makes you feel as if it's become much shallower. But in reality, it's the same, and we'll have more and more break throughs.
- osigurdson 1y ago
  In terms of personal impact, it looks more like a step function that starts in 2022 with incremental improvement after that. Of course, progress was being made prior to that (AlexNet, AlphaGo, Transformers, etc.) but these things didn't have much impact until ChatGPT came along. Once that landed however, things haven't perceptibly changed that much.

necovek 1y ago

If you believe trendlines are guaranteed to remain pointing one way, can you reason?

ninetyninenine 1y ago
Maybe if you could "reason" you'll see I never said "guaranteed." Obviously the trendline points to the most probable outcome. If you HAVE to bet, bet on probability. It's the most reasonable answer.
- necovek 1y ago
  Trendlines are a way to represent some statistical data. Probability can help predict things with enough instances of an event — statistics are only a small part of how we establish a probability of a future event, and a core ingredient of even that small part is having a sufficiently representative sample (which "trendlines" usually don't). Eg. you can get statistics for all the winning lottery tickets from the last 5 years — that won't help you predict the next one. Stop confusing the two.
  - ninetyninenine 1y ago
    It’s probability. If a trending or pattern exists there’s a higher probability that the pattern continues into the future. No such pattern exists for the lottery. Stop being stupid.