6 ms·
These product-focused moves feel like a tacit admission that AGI is further away than they’ve been preaching. If it was close at hand, spending precious resour
by whynotminot 1y ago
These product-focused moves feel like a tacit admission that AGI is further away than they’ve been preaching.
If it was close at hand, spending precious resources on anything other than pursuing AGI wouldn’t make sense.
- justanotheratom 1y agoRE: product-focused moves These are tentacles that AGI will need.
- yahoozoo 1y agoYeah, AGI needs a VS Code fork.
- mountainriver 1y agoOr just a realization that they are mainly up against google with a massive money factory. They need their own money factories or they won’t survive long term
- lolinder 1y agoAGI is the ultimate money factory if they could deliver it on the timelines that they were projecting until recently.
- mountainriver 1y agoIts impossible to know, they are in a longer fight with googs
- alabastervlog 1y agoI remain unconvinced they're (the whole LLM/"Attention Is All You Need" industry) even barking up the right tree to build anything usefully-close to "AGI".
- wilg 1y agoits certainly currently useful and also generally intelligent, right?
- alabastervlog 1y agoYes, and "that question is in not-even-wrong territory", respectively.
- wilg 1y agoa question, especially this one, can't really be "not even wrong"
- floydnoel 1y agouseful, sure. like a calculator for text. intelligent? no, and neither is a calculator
- dgs_sgd 1y agoIt's definitely useful. It can answer specialized PhD level questions correctly, yet cannot perform tasks that an average 10 year old could. I don't consider that generally intelligent.
- wilg 1y agobut it can perform all kinds of tasks. generally intelligent isn't universally intelligent, is it?
- btown 1y agoThe idea that any situation or sensory input can be broken down into a sequence of tokens, and that action choice can be characterized by predicting a subsequent sequence of tokens in the same space, may well bear fruit. But I think that a lot of people also buy into the idea that "text and image data from the web, and from historical chats, is the right/only way to generate the data set required," and it's a dangerous trap to fall into.
- 1y ago
- qgin 1y agoIf we’re talking about the singularity robot takeover fast takeoff, maybe that’s true. But Sam and others have said they see AGI is an uneven process that may not have a clear finish line. The intelligence is spiky and some parts will be superhuman while other parts lag.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- ch4s3 1y agoThat sounds exactly what you would say if you had staked hundreds of millions of dollars and your personal reputation on something you increasingly know isn't possible.
- mrfox321 1y agoSounds like excuses
- lolinder 1y agoNote that they started saying that recently after their earlier projections didn't pan out. The "uneven process without a clear finish line" angle was Altman recently trying to reset expectations, which means it doesn't contradict OP's thesis that this move towards product is further admission that AGI is going to be much messier than they initially predicted.
- alabastervlog 1y agoDude just says whatever he thinks will make Line Go Up on his accounts. It's basically the only thing he does.
- hadlock 1y ago"Make Line Go Up, but without humans" might be the best definition of AGI i've seen so far
- slg 1y agoDoesn't this contradict the whole idea of AGI? How is it still "general" if it is "spiky" with numerous gaps in its "intelligence"? It sounds like a CEO moving the goalposts when asked to accomplish something they don't think they can deliver.
- thinkingtoilet 1y agoDoes anyone seriously think we're anywhere close to AGI with LLMs? I know CEOs like to say things to blow smoke up investors asses, but does anyone with actual credibility think that?
- wilg 1y agoto answer that you have to define AGI first
- swiftcoder 1y agoThat's not a prerequisite to refute a position, no. The ball is in the other court - if one is working on AGI, it behooves one to know what one is aiming at (and I'd stake a fair wager that OpenAI et al have at this moment very little better picture of what AGI looks like than you or I)
- wilg 1y agodefining what you mean is absolutely a prerequisite to someone else being able to figure out if you are right
- swiftcoder 1y agoTo some extent, yes, but the onus here is on the party making wildly unverifiable claims, not the party refuting them
- taylorlapeyre 1y agoPeople really avoid considering what the word "general" implies. Yesterday I tried sending o3 a screenshot of some sheet music, asking for a midi file of how it sounds. Complete failure x3. Could not even get the value of the first note right. This is not "general" intelligence.
- 7734128 1y agoI'm general intelligence, and could not in a million years do that.
- digianarchist 1y agoThere's no post-LLM story. This consolidation is both building product and user-capture before that becomes wildly admitted. I think LLMs will become more useful and more efficient over time as models refine but these aren't the (AI) droids you're looking for.
- sidewndr46 1y agowhat does LLVM mean here?
- rossng 1y agoI assume it's 'large language and vision model'. But, for sanity's sake, if we insist on putting 'vision' in there, let's at least call them LVLMs!
- digianarchist 1y agoI wasn't trying to coin a new term. Genuine mistake!
- dismalaf 1y agoProbably LLM.
- make3 1y agolike when Linda McMahon called AI A1
- sidewndr46 1y agoI can't wait for AG1 so we can all quit our jobs as we are replaced by AG1
- kmeisthax 1y ago[dead]
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- make3 1y agoit's funny I feel like top of the line LLMs are basically AGI already or very close, you can have reasonable discussions with them about any subject etc & that a lot of anti LLM talk is grasping at straws & goalpost moving
- tim333 1y agoPeople's definitions of AGI vary a lot, although I agree LLMs are getting pretty good.
- theahura 1y agoI disagree for two reasons. 1) the two decisions do not seem related to each other. OpenAI has capital to spend and is seeking distribution methods to shore up continued access to future capital. That strategic decision seems totally unrelated to their estimated timelines for when AGI (whatever definition you are using) will show up. Especially because they are in a race against other players. It may be a soft signal that more capital is not going to speed up the AGI timeline right now, but even that is a soft signal. 2) I think we already have AGI for any reasonable definitions of the terms 'artificial' 'general' and 'intelligence'. To wit: I can ask Gemini 2.5 a question about basically anything, and it will respond more coherently and more accurately than the vast majority of the human population, about a vast array of subjects. I do not understand what else AGI could mean. (In case it matters, I am also an AI researcher, I know many AI researchers, and many-but-not-all agree with me)
- asadotzler 1y agoI asked Gemini to read a clock for me with hands on 10 and 2 and it got the long hand and the short hand backwards, probably because of the massive trove of online documentation about the symmetry of 10 after 10 being aesthetically pleasing for PR materials and icons or some such nonsense unrelated to the question or the clock. I don't know about you, but I learned how to read an analog clock in kindergarten and Gemini got it wrong.
- theahura 1y agoSorry, so what? A few different ways to respond to this: 1) Please do me a favor and take the GPQA benchmark. I'm curious to see how you would do. Now go find the nearest kindergartner and ask them to take it. Curious to see how they would do. Maybe random 'ha gotcha!' tasks are not good measures of intelligence? 2) Depending on how you want to measure, the average human is ingesting somewhere between 10 and 100 mb per second. By the time you were in kindergarten (5yo) you would have ingested, conservatively, nearly 2 petabytes of highly multimodal data. Meanwhile, you are comparing against a system that has to understand everything it knows about the world from text (to a first approximation). 3) It seems very strange that reading a clock is a measure of intelligence at all. Unless you think large parts of GenZ are simply not generally intelligent
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- empath75 1y agoBecause LLM's as they exist right now are incredibly useful and you can make a lot of money from them? AGI isn't god. It might not even be especially useful.
- GolfPopper 1y agoIs there a profitable LLM out there right now that anyone can point to as an example?