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It turns out that the biggest cost of California energy is not generation, it's distribution and transmission. Highly distributed energy lessens the peak deman

It turns out that the biggest cost of California energy is not generation, it's distribution and transmission. Highly distributed energy lessens the peak demands on the T&D system, which means that the T&D system can be smaller, which greatly reduces the fixed cost of T&D. Utility scale solar requires greatly expanding transmission lines, to the extent that lack of transmission is the biggest barrier to adding solar to the grid in most of the US. So even if installation costs of solar are higher on the grid edge, it usually makes a ton of sense, and this is evident in the payoff times of NEM3 systems that include batteries. As batteries get cheaper, or there's more vehicle-to-home systems out there, it will only increase. This lessened need for T&D is the true reason that utilities in California hate solar and need to stop it. They can take a guaranteed rate of profit from anything they get to spend on T&D, but the same isn't true of generation. So utility solar, which requires building more lines and beefing up distribution substations more, lets them profit much more than residential solar.

sneak 1y ago
How many office parking lots would be covered in solar carports immediately if the corrupt PUC paid reasonable rates for generation? This solves the T&D problem too, as generation remains distributed. It’s the money.
- looofooo0 1y ago
  Not so easy to reduce the grid load all the time, needs a big battery for every night and for multiple dark days you still need the grid a lot.
  - sneak 1y ago
    Paying reasonable rates for generation also incentivizes distributed storage for anyone who wants to buy batteries and help load shift. Large neighborhood batteries seem to make a lot more sense to me than batteries in every home.
    - looofooo0 1y ago
      Would be nice, the rate could be grid size battery/PV + cost savings from localized production. Not sure if it is economically feasible then.
    - KPGv2 1y ago
      > Large neighborhood batteries Boy people hated their HOA before, imagine how much they'll hate their HOA (because neighborhood batteries would need to be owned by someone, and that someone is the HOA) when they can cut off your power bc you left a garbage can out too long!
  - ThatPlayer 1y ago
    Spinning steam turbine generators also can't just turn on/off instantly. They need to ramp up/down. If you can't ramp up fast enough to meet demand, you have issues. When solar drops off pretty fast, and people come home from work and start turning on appliances, you suddenly have a huge amount of power needed from generators. Even has a name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve The solution of course is more batteries, but you can't really incentivize non-peak generation until you get the batteries. That's part of the NEM3 change that the blog mentions, to change the incentives from just solar to solar and battery.
  - epistasis 1y ago
    Big batteries are actually very easy, and getting cheap enough that they account for a significant chunk of new grid assets when there are enough renewables. Take the Texas ERCOT market, which is the closest thing to a free electricity market that exists in the US. A huge chunk of new grid assets are batteries, becuase they are one of the most profitable things to install right now (see the map at the bottom of the page) https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 Additionally, many people are now buying EVs, and an EV stores 2-5 days worth of electricity. If big batteries on wheels are commonplace, then simpler and cheaper immobile batteries are pretty easy too.
    - looofooo0 1y ago
      Ok what do you do after 5 darkdays? You will need the grid.
- jopsen 1y ago
  Is it the generation that cost, or the promise that you'll always have power? Keeping capacity ready is probably the expensive bit.
eldaisfish 1y ago
you're making a big assumption here - that the demand peak coincides with the distributed generation peak. This is generally not true.
- epistasis 1y ago
  In California, the subject of my comment, it is true.
  - eldaisfish 1y ago
    it generally isn't. Peak demand on most electricity systems, including California's, is during the evening hours, typically between 18:00 and 21:00. This does not coincide with peak solar generation. You can see this even as far back as 2018 via CalISO's own data. https://www.caiso.com/todays-outlook https://www.caiso.com/todays-outlook
    - epistasis 1y ago
      That's because residential solar is eating up the daytime peak, thus the duck curve. Residential solar is already saving the state tons of money on T&D costs. (And becuase the Wikipedia for duck curve shows a day in October rather than a summer day where the peak is much higher, yes the annual peak does coincide with when solar is outputting a ton of power.)
      - eldaisfish 1y ago
        CalISO's charts disagree with you. Gross peak demand is in the late evening, well after the solar peak. Solar noon in western California is around 13:00. https://www.caiso.com/documents/gross-and-net-load-peaks-fact-sheet.pdf https://www.caiso.com/documents/gross-and-net-load-peaks-fac...
        epistasis 1y ago
        You misunderstand the charts, these do not take into account residential solar. The reason the peak is getting pushed into the evening is because residential solar doesn't even show up on the chart. Look at the difference between gross and net: this is utility scale shaving off the peak. This is what is happening with residential solar too, which is not shown.

sneak 1y ago

How many office parking lots would be covered in solar carports immediately if the corrupt PUC paid reasonable rates for generation? This solves the T&D problem too, as generation remains distributed. It’s the money.

looofooo0 1y ago
Not so easy to reduce the grid load all the time, needs a big battery for every night and for multiple dark days you still need the grid a lot.
- sneak 1y ago
  Paying reasonable rates for generation also incentivizes distributed storage for anyone who wants to buy batteries and help load shift. Large neighborhood batteries seem to make a lot more sense to me than batteries in every home.
  - looofooo0 1y ago
    Would be nice, the rate could be grid size battery/PV + cost savings from localized production. Not sure if it is economically feasible then.
  - KPGv2 1y ago
    > Large neighborhood batteries Boy people hated their HOA before, imagine how much they'll hate their HOA (because neighborhood batteries would need to be owned by someone, and that someone is the HOA) when they can cut off your power bc you left a garbage can out too long!
- ThatPlayer 1y ago
  Spinning steam turbine generators also can't just turn on/off instantly. They need to ramp up/down. If you can't ramp up fast enough to meet demand, you have issues. When solar drops off pretty fast, and people come home from work and start turning on appliances, you suddenly have a huge amount of power needed from generators. Even has a name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve The solution of course is more batteries, but you can't really incentivize non-peak generation until you get the batteries. That's part of the NEM3 change that the blog mentions, to change the incentives from just solar to solar and battery.
- epistasis 1y ago
  Big batteries are actually very easy, and getting cheap enough that they account for a significant chunk of new grid assets when there are enough renewables. Take the Texas ERCOT market, which is the closest thing to a free electricity market that exists in the US. A huge chunk of new grid assets are batteries, becuase they are one of the most profitable things to install right now (see the map at the bottom of the page) https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 Additionally, many people are now buying EVs, and an EV stores 2-5 days worth of electricity. If big batteries on wheels are commonplace, then simpler and cheaper immobile batteries are pretty easy too.
  - looofooo0 1y ago
    Ok what do you do after 5 darkdays? You will need the grid.
jopsen 1y ago
Is it the generation that cost, or the promise that you'll always have power? Keeping capacity ready is probably the expensive bit.

eldaisfish 1y ago

you're making a big assumption here - that the demand peak coincides with the distributed generation peak. This is generally not true.

epistasis 1y ago
In California, the subject of my comment, it is true.
- eldaisfish 1y ago
  it generally isn't. Peak demand on most electricity systems, including California's, is during the evening hours, typically between 18:00 and 21:00. This does not coincide with peak solar generation. You can see this even as far back as 2018 via CalISO's own data. https://www.caiso.com/todays-outlook https://www.caiso.com/todays-outlook
  - epistasis 1y ago
    That's because residential solar is eating up the daytime peak, thus the duck curve. Residential solar is already saving the state tons of money on T&D costs. (And becuase the Wikipedia for duck curve shows a day in October rather than a summer day where the peak is much higher, yes the annual peak does coincide with when solar is outputting a ton of power.)
    - eldaisfish 1y ago
      CalISO's charts disagree with you. Gross peak demand is in the late evening, well after the solar peak. Solar noon in western California is around 13:00. https://www.caiso.com/documents/gross-and-net-load-peaks-fact-sheet.pdf https://www.caiso.com/documents/gross-and-net-load-peaks-fac...
      - epistasis 1y ago
        You misunderstand the charts, these do not take into account residential solar. The reason the peak is getting pushed into the evening is because residential solar doesn't even show up on the chart. Look at the difference between gross and net: this is utility scale shaving off the peak. This is what is happening with residential solar too, which is not shown.