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It's mind blowing to me how many developers are happy about the developments here.. as if they're going to eventually be paid to just sit there while agents do

It's mind blowing to me how many developers are happy about the developments here.. as if they're going to eventually be paid to just sit there while agents do everything. Ah, work is now so easy!

bilbo0s 1y ago
I mean, I get what everyone's saying. But, just Devil's Advocate, what would be so terrible about software developers having to find some other line of work? We've used our software development skills to automate other people out of work for what can be argued to be literally decades. Each time we did it, we certainly expected that the people affected would find other work. New jobs were created. The world didn't end. I honestly don't think it would be that much worse this time.
- AstroBen 1y ago
  > what would be so terrible about software developers having to find some other line of work Uh.. I'm having trouble considering this as a serious question. It's objectively going to lead to them being in a worse situation. Mostly irrelevant resume and needing to re-skill into something and start from the bottom.. out of a well paid career that many enjoy and find fulfilling My question wasn't an ethical one. It's why are the people that are the target of this automation happy about the progress, to the point of trying to push it forward faster, cheering it on
  - jampekka 1y ago
    I agree that with the current economic structures a lot of us will end up worse off. Just like e.g. manufacturing workers did. But the automation is not the problem, it's the economic structure in which increased efficiency makes a lot of people worse off.
    - AstroBen 1y ago
      Yeah you're right. Improving productivity for society should be a really exciting time for everyone.. instead we just leave the affected with nothing
- palmotea 1y ago
  > We've used our software development skills to automate other people out of work for what can be argued to be literally decades. And that's the shitty part of the job, and everyone should be uncomfortable with it. I haven't literally automated anyone out of a job (that I know), but I definitely did not like finding out (after the fact) that one project was meant to enable a large offshoring effort. > Each time we did it, we certainly expected that the people affected would find other work. I do not expect that. That's a comforting lie people tell themselves. > New jobs were created. The world didn't end. I honestly don't think it would be that much worse this time. It didn't end, but it often got significantly worse for some. If the AI hype pans out, it's going to get significantly worse for software engineers. Your "newly created job," if it exists, will likely pay out a lot less that you're used to. At best, you'll get knocked down to the bottom of the career ladder. It's a mistake to think about things in aggregate like you're doing. It's easy to hide inconvenient truths.
sokoloff 1y ago
I think in the success case (still TBD), that it will increase productivity to the point where things that can’t be affordably addressed by software will now be able to be addressed with software. I expect that anyone who is a skilled dev today will be fine. Expectations and competition might be higher, but so will production and value creation. I think the demand will come, just as Excel didn’t put finance people out of jobs in aggregate.
- micromacrofoot 1y ago
  when in history have workers ever been the primary benefactors of productivity gains
  - sokoloff 1y ago
    Why would "primary benefactor" be the most relevant question rather than mere "benefactor"? If my life is improved by something, I don't care that someone else's life is improved by more; I don't want to reject that improvement out of spite, jealousy, or envy. Bankers (and customers) benefited from ATMs as far more bank locations became economically sustainable and bank tellers could do higher value work (and do so more safely). Millions of software developers continue to benefit from improvements in productivity, the resulting value creation, and the resulting high pay in our sector from ever more productive languages and frameworks. Can you imagine how little pay you'd make trying to sling websites in assembly language at less than 1% of the pace of today?
    - micromacrofoot 1y ago
      > Millions of software developers continue to benefit from improvements in productivity You're absurdly naive if you think developers will see the most benefit. We will have fewer developers just as we have fewer farmers and factory workers. When labor is automated it becomes owned by fewer people, this is historically consistent for over a hundred years across every sector. Thousands of towns have collapsed under this sort of change and effects are felt for generations. > Can you imagine how little pay you'd make trying to sling websites in assembly language at less than 1% of the pace of today Productivity gains do not align with income gains, this is a complete strawman. Developers today may be 100x more productive, but they do not have a 100x higher income. Ask yourself, where did that value go — and is that fair? We're creating the automation and someone else is taking the lions share of the benefit. We're being conned.
palmotea 1y ago
> It's mind blowing to me how many developers are happy about the developments here.. as if they're going to eventually be paid to just sit there while agents do everything. Ah, work is now so easy! Software engineers are dumb. Really dumb.

It's mind blowing to me how many developers are happy about the developments here.. as if they're going to eventually be paid to just sit there while agents do everything. Ah, work is now so easy!

bilbo0s 1y ago

I mean, I get what everyone's saying. But, just Devil's Advocate, what would be so terrible about software developers having to find some other line of work? We've used our software development skills to automate other people out of work for what can be argued to be literally decades. Each time we did it, we certainly expected that the people affected would find other work. New jobs were created. The world didn't end. I honestly don't think it would be that much worse this time.

AstroBen 1y ago
> what would be so terrible about software developers having to find some other line of work Uh.. I'm having trouble considering this as a serious question. It's objectively going to lead to them being in a worse situation. Mostly irrelevant resume and needing to re-skill into something and start from the bottom.. out of a well paid career that many enjoy and find fulfilling My question wasn't an ethical one. It's why are the people that are the target of this automation happy about the progress, to the point of trying to push it forward faster, cheering it on
- jampekka 1y ago
  I agree that with the current economic structures a lot of us will end up worse off. Just like e.g. manufacturing workers did. But the automation is not the problem, it's the economic structure in which increased efficiency makes a lot of people worse off.
  - AstroBen 1y ago
    Yeah you're right. Improving productivity for society should be a really exciting time for everyone.. instead we just leave the affected with nothing
palmotea 1y ago
> We've used our software development skills to automate other people out of work for what can be argued to be literally decades. And that's the shitty part of the job, and everyone should be uncomfortable with it. I haven't literally automated anyone out of a job (that I know), but I definitely did not like finding out (after the fact) that one project was meant to enable a large offshoring effort. > Each time we did it, we certainly expected that the people affected would find other work. I do not expect that. That's a comforting lie people tell themselves. > New jobs were created. The world didn't end. I honestly don't think it would be that much worse this time. It didn't end, but it often got significantly worse for some. If the AI hype pans out, it's going to get significantly worse for software engineers. Your "newly created job," if it exists, will likely pay out a lot less that you're used to. At best, you'll get knocked down to the bottom of the career ladder. It's a mistake to think about things in aggregate like you're doing. It's easy to hide inconvenient truths.

sokoloff 1y ago

I think in the success case (still TBD), that it will increase productivity to the point where things that can’t be affordably addressed by software will now be able to be addressed with software. I expect that anyone who is a skilled dev today will be fine. Expectations and competition might be higher, but so will production and value creation. I think the demand will come, just as Excel didn’t put finance people out of jobs in aggregate.

micromacrofoot 1y ago
when in history have workers ever been the primary benefactors of productivity gains
- sokoloff 1y ago
  Why would "primary benefactor" be the most relevant question rather than mere "benefactor"? If my life is improved by something, I don't care that someone else's life is improved by more; I don't want to reject that improvement out of spite, jealousy, or envy. Bankers (and customers) benefited from ATMs as far more bank locations became economically sustainable and bank tellers could do higher value work (and do so more safely). Millions of software developers continue to benefit from improvements in productivity, the resulting value creation, and the resulting high pay in our sector from ever more productive languages and frameworks. Can you imagine how little pay you'd make trying to sling websites in assembly language at less than 1% of the pace of today?
  - micromacrofoot 1y ago
    > Millions of software developers continue to benefit from improvements in productivity You're absurdly naive if you think developers will see the most benefit. We will have fewer developers just as we have fewer farmers and factory workers. When labor is automated it becomes owned by fewer people, this is historically consistent for over a hundred years across every sector. Thousands of towns have collapsed under this sort of change and effects are felt for generations. > Can you imagine how little pay you'd make trying to sling websites in assembly language at less than 1% of the pace of today Productivity gains do not align with income gains, this is a complete strawman. Developers today may be 100x more productive, but they do not have a 100x higher income. Ask yourself, where did that value go — and is that fair? We're creating the automation and someone else is taking the lions share of the benefit. We're being conned.

palmotea 1y ago

> It's mind blowing to me how many developers are happy about the developments here.. as if they're going to eventually be paid to just sit there while agents do everything. Ah, work is now so easy! Software engineers are dumb. Really dumb.