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Activism, hacking or campaigning: Why it's so easy to win the vote at Eurovision

27 points by diggan 1y ago

xg15 1y ago
I don't have any hard evidence for rigged votes. Given that the Israel/Palestine conflict has huge support groups on both sides, it's also plausible that the Israel votes were just genuine, if politically motivated Israel supporters. But some smells are definitely there. To get more information about the conflict, I had subscribed to the newsletter of the Deutsch-Israelische Gesellschaft, one of the largest pro-Israel lobbying groups in Germany. Lo and behold, they sent out a mail to all their subscribers on the day of the final, calling to vote for Yuval, with phone number and everything included. They had done the same thing last year as well. I'd classify this as a "gray area", as the subscribers of that list would be very likely to be hard-line Israel supporters anyway. However, not all of them would be interested in the ESC or would know how to vote, so it's definitely a form of mobilization. (I assume similar organizations in other countries did the same) What I found more suspicious is the massive amount of online votes that were given, according to [1]. First, it's remarkable that online votes make up the lion's share of all votes, absolutely dwarfing phone votes. This is even though the show itself still gives the impression that voting is mostly being done by phone. Also the total amount of online votes seems to have grown much more steeply between semifinals and final than the total audience. That seems to suggest some kind of brigading going on - though it still doesn't say anything about how organized it was. [1] https://escxtra.com/2025/05/19/rtve-asks-for-audit-of-spanish-televote/ https://escxtra.com/2025/05/19/rtve-asks-for-audit-of-spanis...
- rightbyte 1y ago
  The starting field was more even than usual I believe. I think 'supporters' might sway things alot when that is the case. And Yuval was alone in her genre while the other were crowded. Maybe the Swiss one too in the same genre?
  - xg15 1y ago
    Didn't actually watch it this time, but yeah. From the summary it was sort of hilarious how many countries were suddenly going for "epic opera" type acts, after Nemo had won with that style last year. "Winner copycat law" is real, apparently.
    - rightbyte 1y ago
      I of course also didn't watch it. But I was hearing half the whole thing from another room and I distinctly remember thinking "oh, that normal boring song can win this". But I am no expert. Just half hearted guessing.
- mytailorisrich 1y ago
  It's difficult to assess the "silent majority", too, because of the media and general climate is so monopolized by the so-called "pro-Palestine" side, often in an aggressive way, that it's become even dangerous to voice a different opinion, so people simply don't say anything about the topic. A case in point is this article and this "controversy" that effectively assumes that people would not vote for the Israeli singer because it would obviously be wrong to, leaving aside what the artist has personally gone through, and perhaps simply the "likeability" of the song.
  - xg15 1y ago
    I'd argue that the pro-palestine side has the same perception. Only one of the two sides risks arrest and deportation for protesting. I'd agree with you if everyone had agreed to leave the ESC as a decidedly unpolitical event - but the Israeli side didn't do that either.
    - mytailorisrich 1y ago
      In Europe? Certainly not, you're quite safe with public displays of being "pro-Palestine", including safe from police. There is no deportation of legal immigrants in Europe in any case. On the other hand, you will likely be assaulted if you walk down the street with an Israeli flag or badge, so...
- CLPadvocate 1y ago
  > I'd classify this as a "gray area" So, sending one newsletter to a tiny group is considered a gray area. I'm just curious, what do you think about massive advertising campaign for the German duo that run basically day and night for about a week on every major TV channel in Germany?
  - xg15 1y ago
    I don't think the list is that tiny. Countries cannot vote for themselves, so whatever a broadcaster does in its own country isn't relevant to the votes. (And obviously every country hypes their own candidate as much as possible to their own audience. So does Israel. That's not a problem) I'd also see it as mostly OK if some country wanted to run a standard promo/advertising campaign for their candidate in other voting countries. A bit desperate, yes, but at least the campaign would be obvious to the public and would essentially just raise interest for the candidate's performance at the contest. Where I think it gets potentially deceptive is if you call up people to vote who are not even planning to watch the contest, do so with a clear political motivation - and then later pretend all the votes were organic. (Just checked the group's mails again. Interestingly, their call last year sounded a lot more urgent and openly political. "set an example", "every vote counts", with remarks that you can vote up to 20 times per device. This time the wording was much softer: "we wish her good luck and invite you to vote for her", with no mention of the 20 votes ability. Make of that what you want. Maybe someone complained.)
    - CLPadvocate 1y ago
      Let's just agree that you're pretty biased. Israel runs no campaigns in Germany, the German-Israeli-Society is a German organisation, with mostly Germans as members, supported by the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and having members of German Parliament as Directors. So, let's assume, it's run according to the highest standards regarding political correctness in Germany. But as you may remember, German television specifically targeted Germans on vacation in Spain (specifically Mallorca) and also Germans living close to the borders to vote for Germany from abroad on multiple occasions in the last years, which can be considered voter fraud without any grey areas. On the other hand, you didn't join the German-British-Society or the German-Swedish-Society or any other society to check if they behave according to your self-defined standards, so I would say, you need to check your own moral compass.
nothercastle 1y ago
It probably as simple as running a bot with virtual credit cards. Do they even care if the votes are legit as long as the money clears?

27 points by diggan 1y ago

xg15 1y ago

I don't have any hard evidence for rigged votes. Given that the Israel/Palestine conflict has huge support groups on both sides, it's also plausible that the Israel votes were just genuine, if politically motivated Israel supporters. But some smells are definitely there. To get more information about the conflict, I had subscribed to the newsletter of the Deutsch-Israelische Gesellschaft, one of the largest pro-Israel lobbying groups in Germany. Lo and behold, they sent out a mail to all their subscribers on the day of the final, calling to vote for Yuval, with phone number and everything included. They had done the same thing last year as well. I'd classify this as a "gray area", as the subscribers of that list would be very likely to be hard-line Israel supporters anyway. However, not all of them would be interested in the ESC or would know how to vote, so it's definitely a form of mobilization. (I assume similar organizations in other countries did the same) What I found more suspicious is the massive amount of online votes that were given, according to [1]. First, it's remarkable that online votes make up the lion's share of all votes, absolutely dwarfing phone votes. This is even though the show itself still gives the impression that voting is mostly being done by phone. Also the total amount of online votes seems to have grown much more steeply between semifinals and final than the total audience. That seems to suggest some kind of brigading going on - though it still doesn't say anything about how organized it was. [1] https://escxtra.com/2025/05/19/rtve-asks-for-audit-of-spanish-televote/ https://escxtra.com/2025/05/19/rtve-asks-for-audit-of-spanis...

rightbyte 1y ago
The starting field was more even than usual I believe. I think 'supporters' might sway things alot when that is the case. And Yuval was alone in her genre while the other were crowded. Maybe the Swiss one too in the same genre?
- xg15 1y ago
  Didn't actually watch it this time, but yeah. From the summary it was sort of hilarious how many countries were suddenly going for "epic opera" type acts, after Nemo had won with that style last year. "Winner copycat law" is real, apparently.
  - rightbyte 1y ago
    I of course also didn't watch it. But I was hearing half the whole thing from another room and I distinctly remember thinking "oh, that normal boring song can win this". But I am no expert. Just half hearted guessing.
mytailorisrich 1y ago
It's difficult to assess the "silent majority", too, because of the media and general climate is so monopolized by the so-called "pro-Palestine" side, often in an aggressive way, that it's become even dangerous to voice a different opinion, so people simply don't say anything about the topic. A case in point is this article and this "controversy" that effectively assumes that people would not vote for the Israeli singer because it would obviously be wrong to, leaving aside what the artist has personally gone through, and perhaps simply the "likeability" of the song.
- xg15 1y ago
  I'd argue that the pro-palestine side has the same perception. Only one of the two sides risks arrest and deportation for protesting. I'd agree with you if everyone had agreed to leave the ESC as a decidedly unpolitical event - but the Israeli side didn't do that either.
  - mytailorisrich 1y ago
    In Europe? Certainly not, you're quite safe with public displays of being "pro-Palestine", including safe from police. There is no deportation of legal immigrants in Europe in any case. On the other hand, you will likely be assaulted if you walk down the street with an Israeli flag or badge, so...
CLPadvocate 1y ago
> I'd classify this as a "gray area" So, sending one newsletter to a tiny group is considered a gray area. I'm just curious, what do you think about massive advertising campaign for the German duo that run basically day and night for about a week on every major TV channel in Germany?
- xg15 1y ago
  I don't think the list is that tiny. Countries cannot vote for themselves, so whatever a broadcaster does in its own country isn't relevant to the votes. (And obviously every country hypes their own candidate as much as possible to their own audience. So does Israel. That's not a problem) I'd also see it as mostly OK if some country wanted to run a standard promo/advertising campaign for their candidate in other voting countries. A bit desperate, yes, but at least the campaign would be obvious to the public and would essentially just raise interest for the candidate's performance at the contest. Where I think it gets potentially deceptive is if you call up people to vote who are not even planning to watch the contest, do so with a clear political motivation - and then later pretend all the votes were organic. (Just checked the group's mails again. Interestingly, their call last year sounded a lot more urgent and openly political. "set an example", "every vote counts", with remarks that you can vote up to 20 times per device. This time the wording was much softer: "we wish her good luck and invite you to vote for her", with no mention of the 20 votes ability. Make of that what you want. Maybe someone complained.)
  - CLPadvocate 1y ago
    Let's just agree that you're pretty biased. Israel runs no campaigns in Germany, the German-Israeli-Society is a German organisation, with mostly Germans as members, supported by the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and having members of German Parliament as Directors. So, let's assume, it's run according to the highest standards regarding political correctness in Germany. But as you may remember, German television specifically targeted Germans on vacation in Spain (specifically Mallorca) and also Germans living close to the borders to vote for Germany from abroad on multiple occasions in the last years, which can be considered voter fraud without any grey areas. On the other hand, you didn't join the German-British-Society or the German-Swedish-Society or any other society to check if they behave according to your self-defined standards, so I would say, you need to check your own moral compass.

nothercastle 1y ago

It probably as simple as running a bot with virtual credit cards. Do they even care if the votes are legit as long as the money clears?