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So, what if future models could actually program and do mathematics like the best professionals and experts? A world where you can ask this ChatGPT-17.3 to gen

So, what if future models could actually program and do mathematics like the best professionals and experts? A world where you can ask this ChatGPT-17.3 to generate a version control tool with these or that properties, solving some list of problems with previous version control tools, and then it does so over the weekend at the cost of $1000 in GPU rent? Presumably at the point it will not be sensible to employ very many programmers. A couple of experts would determine requirements and then they would feed that into the machines and the required software, mathematics etc. would be produced, analyzed by a small group of experts and then used to produce requirements for the next version.

iLoveOncall 1y ago
So, what if this never happens?
- impossiblefork 1y ago
  Well, then it doesn't, but why would you expect that to be the case? Why would transformers be so ideal that there is no major improvement left?
  - iLoveOncall 1y ago
    Why would you expect otherwise? You're the one with an extraordinary claim. I'm not saying that transformers are ideal or that there's no major improvement left. I'm saying that a major improvement over something that is barely a net positive is nowhere near the extinction level event you're making it seem to be.
    - lostmsu 1y ago
      It's not like the proof to the claim is not extraordinary. 4GB of weights demonstrates reasoning abilities unthinkable 4 years ago.
      - iLoveOncall 1y ago
        Next token generation is not reasoning.
        lostmsu 1y ago
        I would argue that is more reasoning than you do in the specific instances of SotA LLMs. Because you are demonstrating a rather simple logical mistake by claiming "T is in NTG => T is not in R" when you have no information about relationship between NTG and R sets. But I wasn't even talking about reasoning. I specifically said "demonstration".
- palmotea 1y ago
  >> So, what if future models could actually program and do mathematics like the best professionals and experts? > So, what if this never happens? We can hope they fail, but the goal of these people are working towards is the replacement of humans for economically valuable intellectual work. We should take those goals seriously.

iLoveOncall 1y ago

So, what if this never happens?

impossiblefork 1y ago
Well, then it doesn't, but why would you expect that to be the case? Why would transformers be so ideal that there is no major improvement left?
- iLoveOncall 1y ago
  Why would you expect otherwise? You're the one with an extraordinary claim. I'm not saying that transformers are ideal or that there's no major improvement left. I'm saying that a major improvement over something that is barely a net positive is nowhere near the extinction level event you're making it seem to be.
  - lostmsu 1y ago
    It's not like the proof to the claim is not extraordinary. 4GB of weights demonstrates reasoning abilities unthinkable 4 years ago.
    - iLoveOncall 1y ago
      Next token generation is not reasoning.
      - lostmsu 1y ago
        I would argue that is more reasoning than you do in the specific instances of SotA LLMs. Because you are demonstrating a rather simple logical mistake by claiming "T is in NTG => T is not in R" when you have no information about relationship between NTG and R sets. But I wasn't even talking about reasoning. I specifically said "demonstration".
palmotea 1y ago
>> So, what if future models could actually program and do mathematics like the best professionals and experts? > So, what if this never happens? We can hope they fail, but the goal of these people are working towards is the replacement of humans for economically valuable intellectual work. We should take those goals seriously.