3 ms·

Why do the estimated births/deaths per second counters have so much flicker? Surely you don't actually believe that the expected number of births/deaths per sec

Why do the estimated births/deaths per second counters have so much flicker? Surely you don't actually believe that the expected number of births/deaths per second fluctuates at 1dp precision multiple times per second?

avvt4avaw 1y ago
> The continuously updating global population counter is based on current aggregate birth and death rates (approximating values such as those from the U.S. Census Bureau International Database or UN DESA). The "live" births and deaths per second are statistically generated fluctuations around these averages to enhance the dynamic feel. Ok, so you added high-frequency random noise to the estimated averages to make it feel more realistic. To me, this makes it feel less realistic. Anyway, don't mean to gripe, this is a cool project!
- ides_dev 1y ago
  It would be interesting if it could fluctuate depending on birth rates at different times of day in different countries. That way, it could at least have a bit of dynamism if, for example, India had the highest global birthrate and most births there occured during daylight hours.
- oshkar0 1y ago
  You'd have to add much more fluctuation to be realistic, it's a poisson process, about 25% of the seconds should be with zero births.
  - LeifCarrotson 1y ago
    25% of individual seconds, but the average over an hour should be rock solid to several decimal places. I think the more interesting fluctuations are those which change on an hourly ("checking the clock", spikes when people hear a chime or get notifications on the hour), daily ("eating lunch" spikes when UTC+8 hits lunchtime in eastern China and craters when it's noon in the middle of the Pacific), or other periodic basis.
OskarS 1y ago
Presumably time of day matters? I’m guessing more people give birth or have c-sections during the day (not sure if that’s true of fully natural births, but for induced and c-sections, seems very likely).
mensetmanusman 1y ago
Might be due to sneezing.

avvt4avaw 1y ago

> The continuously updating global population counter is based on current aggregate birth and death rates (approximating values such as those from the U.S. Census Bureau International Database or UN DESA). The "live" births and deaths per second are statistically generated fluctuations around these averages to enhance the dynamic feel. Ok, so you added high-frequency random noise to the estimated averages to make it feel more realistic. To me, this makes it feel less realistic. Anyway, don't mean to gripe, this is a cool project!

ides_dev 1y ago
It would be interesting if it could fluctuate depending on birth rates at different times of day in different countries. That way, it could at least have a bit of dynamism if, for example, India had the highest global birthrate and most births there occured during daylight hours.
oshkar0 1y ago
You'd have to add much more fluctuation to be realistic, it's a poisson process, about 25% of the seconds should be with zero births.
- LeifCarrotson 1y ago
  25% of individual seconds, but the average over an hour should be rock solid to several decimal places. I think the more interesting fluctuations are those which change on an hourly ("checking the clock", spikes when people hear a chime or get notifications on the hour), daily ("eating lunch" spikes when UTC+8 hits lunchtime in eastern China and craters when it's noon in the middle of the Pacific), or other periodic basis.

OskarS 1y ago

Presumably time of day matters? I’m guessing more people give birth or have c-sections during the day (not sure if that’s true of fully natural births, but for induced and c-sections, seems very likely).

mensetmanusman 1y ago

Might be due to sneezing.