2 ms·
I'm surprised at the surface difference between birth and death rate because we're told the aggregate rate of increase is declining. The difference between the
by ggm 1y ago
I'm surprised at the surface difference between birth and death rate because we're told the aggregate rate of increase is declining. The difference between the two suggests birth outruns death by 2:1 which feels steep for something which will max out in 2050.
I realise sub-saharan Africa continues to be high birthrate and is a huge component of world population, but the trend of increased economic activity to lower birth rate is really high worldwide, and most western economies in the OECD would be in decline, were it not for migration.
- tonmoy 1y agoThat could be because most people in the world currently are young. Hypothetically even if birth rate remains constant but suddenly a huge portion of the population start dying due to age then it could flip suddenly
- decimalenough 1y agoWikipedia: "It may take several generations for a change in the total fertility rate to be reflected in birth rate, because the age distribution must reach equilibrium. For example, a population that has recently dropped below replacement-level fertility will continue to grow, because the recent high fertility produced large numbers of young couples, who would now be in their childbearing years." See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_momentum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_momentum