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Imagine if AI does become so powerful UBI is a necessity. How would europe be able to pay for UBI without money coming in and taxes being paid to fund it? Thing

by qoez 1y ago

Imagine if AI does become so powerful UBI is a necessity. How would europe be able to pay for UBI without money coming in and taxes being paid to fund it? Things like this seem critical for the future of the EU and yet I'm super sceptical this will lead to openai etc level quality.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> Things like this seem critical for the future of the EU Solving faraway hypotheticals in lieu of actual problems is half of the EU’s problem.
wesselbindt 1y ago
At what point would AI necessitate UBI? I'm assuming your idea here is, roughly speaking, that at some point, AI will displace a large section of the work force, rendering them homeless and unable to feed themselves, and that to prevent this, UBI would become necessary. But don't we already have homeless folks? Haven't we already been through technological revolutions putting people out on the streets? If this historical precedent is anything to go by, the politically dominant class is perfectly content with people going homeless on account of not being able to find a job. Seems to me that the classical solutions of pumping drugs into the streets, immobilizing the downtrodden, and straight up slavery through the prison system, are much more likely to happen than UBI
- dudefeliciano 1y ago
  if enough workers are displaced due to this, and they do not receive some form of income, the politically dominant class will be in danger
  - qoez 1y ago
    Or they make money the way B2B companies do; which seems like companies just shifting money around on the upper layers without it ever really reaching the hands of lower classes.
  - wesselbindt 1y ago
    But the thing is that there's other ways of dealing with discontent in the working class. Sure, UBI is one of them, but there are less pleasant solutions (just do slavery, or have a well paid class of kapos, or sow internal strife by pushing an "it's the Jews/Muslims/trans folks" narrative with the media that you own), and history shows that the politically dominant class is mighty partial to that kind of solution. EDIT: Maybe I'm too cynical, but as far as I can see the last time serious improvements to the material conditions of the working class were made was when the soviets were still around, and the threat of a worker's revolution still seemed somewhat realistic. I think the politically dominant class has become quite adept at suppressing that kind of thing, and UBI does not seem to be part of their preferred playbook.
whatnow37373 1y ago
Let’s all focus on not waging bloody goddamn war against each other first before worrying about AI anything.
swarnie 1y ago
I've never found someone with creative enough accounting to make UBI work. Just purely on numbers: 57 million UK adults getting £1000 a month (It'll leave you dying on the street in 1/3rd of the country) Over the course of a year = £684 billion. Current total government spend is 1,278 billion If you abolished all forms of social care including welfare, pensions, child care, disability (the lot). And education. And the NHS. you could do it providing you also dropped defence by 2/3rds. UBI is madness.
- freeone3000 1y ago
  This also assumes that government tax revenue doesn’t drop, and with most of the population unemployed, that will likely not be the case.
  - graemep 1y ago
    If AI was putting people out of work at that rate the remaining businesses would be hugely profitable so there would be a huge tax base. The economic output would be the same or higher. If you are suggesting people would choose not to work if we had UBI, the evidence from trials so far is that it does not happen.
    - zipy124 1y ago
      Corporation tax is much lower and easier to dodge than income tax. Corporation taxes were only 11% of UK government income compared to 28% for personal income tax, 18% for national insurance and 17% for VAT (sales tax). If a company did develop AGI, it would sell services in the Uk and pay licenses to the technology in a subsidiary in a low-tax durisdiction like we have with ireland for the past couple of decades.
- graemep 1y ago
  > 57 million UK adults getting £1000 a month You phase it in. You start with something a little more than UC of, say £400/month for people not receiving pensions. You increase as it can be afforded. it gives people a great deal of security. So far fewer people (37m of working age) getting less than half the amount you came up with costs. That is £278bn offset by reducing welfare spending. You would need to continue housing benefit and some others if it was that low so you could not dismantile the entire system. > It'll leave you dying on the street in 1/3rd of the country I doubt that - it is not a decent income, but most people would earn on top of it. That is the whole point. It would give people a greater incentive to work than the current system which reduces welfare if they earn. A lot of people will not work because they are no better off if they do. OBR projects welfare spending to be £338bn by 29/30 anyway. You are leaving a lot of things out. For one thing if it was taxable income (as pensions and many benefits are) tax revenues would increase too as most people would pay on it. It would provide a huge economic stimulus which would further increase tax revenues. People on low incomes spend more of their income. Some of that would be on things with consumption taxes. It would give people a great deal of financial security. You cannot calculate the effects of a huge change like this on the assumption that nothing else changes.
deadbabe 1y ago
Even if AI can became so powerful it eliminated all office work there would still be jobs for people to do involving moving or manipulating physical matter, I wouldn’t worry about it. We need cooks, cleaners, mechanics, nurses, movers etc. AI alone is not enough to kill off all jobs. UBI isn’t coming.
Jackpillar 1y ago
You're asking how Europe would pay for a large scale social program? I hope you don't live in the US my friend because if AI gets to a point where UBI is ever needed you better get comfortable sleeping outside.
- daedrdev 1y ago
  Europe's finances are in dire straights under the heavy pensions and existing government spending. The US also has high debt, but has much lower taxes than the EU so can theoretically raise revenue if it really needs to, while Europe has little room for more taxation
  - Jackpillar 1y ago
    In the context of an AI revolution influenced requirement for UBI, the political mobilization & effort required to sort the financial situation of Europe is exceedingly more attainable than the effort & mobilizations required to (A) passing a UBI bill, (B) raising taxes (lol c'mon), and (C) distributing said resources into a social safety net in the US that is not means-tested to hell and equally distributed and fought at every corner by corporate America. We're the only developed western country on planet that doesn't have healthcare as a human right and you think our governments will pass a universal basic income?
BlueTemplar 1y ago
At such a high level, money is irrelevant : it's just a token goverments implement for signaling purposes in the economy.

by qoez 1y ago

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> Things like this seem critical for the future of the EU Solving faraway hypotheticals in lieu of actual problems is half of the EU’s problem.

wesselbindt 1y ago

At what point would AI necessitate UBI? I'm assuming your idea here is, roughly speaking, that at some point, AI will displace a large section of the work force, rendering them homeless and unable to feed themselves, and that to prevent this, UBI would become necessary. But don't we already have homeless folks? Haven't we already been through technological revolutions putting people out on the streets? If this historical precedent is anything to go by, the politically dominant class is perfectly content with people going homeless on account of not being able to find a job. Seems to me that the classical solutions of pumping drugs into the streets, immobilizing the downtrodden, and straight up slavery through the prison system, are much more likely to happen than UBI

dudefeliciano 1y ago
if enough workers are displaced due to this, and they do not receive some form of income, the politically dominant class will be in danger
- qoez 1y ago
  Or they make money the way B2B companies do; which seems like companies just shifting money around on the upper layers without it ever really reaching the hands of lower classes.
- wesselbindt 1y ago
  But the thing is that there's other ways of dealing with discontent in the working class. Sure, UBI is one of them, but there are less pleasant solutions (just do slavery, or have a well paid class of kapos, or sow internal strife by pushing an "it's the Jews/Muslims/trans folks" narrative with the media that you own), and history shows that the politically dominant class is mighty partial to that kind of solution. EDIT: Maybe I'm too cynical, but as far as I can see the last time serious improvements to the material conditions of the working class were made was when the soviets were still around, and the threat of a worker's revolution still seemed somewhat realistic. I think the politically dominant class has become quite adept at suppressing that kind of thing, and UBI does not seem to be part of their preferred playbook.

whatnow37373 1y ago

Let’s all focus on not waging bloody goddamn war against each other first before worrying about AI anything.

swarnie 1y ago

I've never found someone with creative enough accounting to make UBI work. Just purely on numbers: 57 million UK adults getting £1000 a month (It'll leave you dying on the street in 1/3rd of the country) Over the course of a year = £684 billion. Current total government spend is 1,278 billion If you abolished all forms of social care including welfare, pensions, child care, disability (the lot). And education. And the NHS. you could do it providing you also dropped defence by 2/3rds. UBI is madness.

freeone3000 1y ago
This also assumes that government tax revenue doesn’t drop, and with most of the population unemployed, that will likely not be the case.
- graemep 1y ago
  If AI was putting people out of work at that rate the remaining businesses would be hugely profitable so there would be a huge tax base. The economic output would be the same or higher. If you are suggesting people would choose not to work if we had UBI, the evidence from trials so far is that it does not happen.
  - zipy124 1y ago
    Corporation tax is much lower and easier to dodge than income tax. Corporation taxes were only 11% of UK government income compared to 28% for personal income tax, 18% for national insurance and 17% for VAT (sales tax). If a company did develop AGI, it would sell services in the Uk and pay licenses to the technology in a subsidiary in a low-tax durisdiction like we have with ireland for the past couple of decades.
graemep 1y ago
> 57 million UK adults getting £1000 a month You phase it in. You start with something a little more than UC of, say £400/month for people not receiving pensions. You increase as it can be afforded. it gives people a great deal of security. So far fewer people (37m of working age) getting less than half the amount you came up with costs. That is £278bn offset by reducing welfare spending. You would need to continue housing benefit and some others if it was that low so you could not dismantile the entire system. > It'll leave you dying on the street in 1/3rd of the country I doubt that - it is not a decent income, but most people would earn on top of it. That is the whole point. It would give people a greater incentive to work than the current system which reduces welfare if they earn. A lot of people will not work because they are no better off if they do. OBR projects welfare spending to be £338bn by 29/30 anyway. You are leaving a lot of things out. For one thing if it was taxable income (as pensions and many benefits are) tax revenues would increase too as most people would pay on it. It would provide a huge economic stimulus which would further increase tax revenues. People on low incomes spend more of their income. Some of that would be on things with consumption taxes. It would give people a great deal of financial security. You cannot calculate the effects of a huge change like this on the assumption that nothing else changes.

deadbabe 1y ago

Even if AI can became so powerful it eliminated all office work there would still be jobs for people to do involving moving or manipulating physical matter, I wouldn’t worry about it. We need cooks, cleaners, mechanics, nurses, movers etc. AI alone is not enough to kill off all jobs. UBI isn’t coming.

Jackpillar 1y ago

You're asking how Europe would pay for a large scale social program? I hope you don't live in the US my friend because if AI gets to a point where UBI is ever needed you better get comfortable sleeping outside.

daedrdev 1y ago
Europe's finances are in dire straights under the heavy pensions and existing government spending. The US also has high debt, but has much lower taxes than the EU so can theoretically raise revenue if it really needs to, while Europe has little room for more taxation
- Jackpillar 1y ago
  In the context of an AI revolution influenced requirement for UBI, the political mobilization & effort required to sort the financial situation of Europe is exceedingly more attainable than the effort & mobilizations required to (A) passing a UBI bill, (B) raising taxes (lol c'mon), and (C) distributing said resources into a social safety net in the US that is not means-tested to hell and equally distributed and fought at every corner by corporate America. We're the only developed western country on planet that doesn't have healthcare as a human right and you think our governments will pass a universal basic income?

BlueTemplar 1y ago

At such a high level, money is irrelevant : it's just a token goverments implement for signaling purposes in the economy.