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> All of the components of renewables, including PV modules and storage, seem to be following an inverse exponential in price. Definitely not true of offshore

> All of the components of renewables, including PV modules and storage, seem to be following an inverse exponential in price. Definitely not true of offshore wind. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44012502 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44012502 Also it seems like a fallacy of composition to believe that a cheap system is formed from cheap individual components.

matthewdgreen 1y ago
A cheap system is a combination of cheap components, land, and the labor required to assemble it. But in terms of minimized labor costs, you just don’t get a lot better than PV and batteries. And there’s still room for cost reductions from technological improvements and more efficient PV.
- chickenbig 1y ago
  > A cheap system is a combination of cheap components, land, and the labor required to assemble it. The point is that cheap components may require the use of other components to compensate for its deficiencies, and so on. Solar panels need batteries, synchronous condensers, more transmission capacity, electrolysers, hydrogen storage, backup power stations, demand side response, etc.
  - ViewTrick1002 1y ago
    And batteries are plummeting in cost as well. In Australia it was calculated that the extra grid upgrades for renewables comes out to $15B. That is less than the subsidies a single nuclear reactor needs. To electrify society and industry we need to expand our grids by 1.5-2.5x. Stringing an set of wires, using thicker ones or stepping up the voltage higher is a minuscule cost when already having to uprate the grid. Gas turbine emergency reserves would be $1B.
    - chickenbig 1y ago
      > In Australia it was calculated that the extra grid upgrades for renewables comes out to $15B. AEMO report from 2024 [1] page 13 note 2 very carefully draws the line around what the extra 16B AUD will pay for. This value is the net present value of capital costs for transmission augmentation up to 2049-50 only, and does not include the cost of commissioned, committed or anticipated projects. Committed and anticipated ISP projects :- Project EnergyConnect cost has ~doubled to 4.1B AUD [2] Central West Orana REZ is around 5.45B AUD [3] CopperString has escalated to 14B AUD although that might be partly due to general inflation [4] > Gas turbine emergency reserves would be $1B. Gas turbines are now about 2400 USD/kW (3750 AUD/kW), so 1B AUD results in ~267 MW of capacity. [1] https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2024/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp.pdf?la=en https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/202... [2] https://reneweconomy.com.au/deja-vu-on-transmission-project-cost-blowouts-as-price-of-energyconnect-doubles/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/deja-vu-on-transmission-project-... [3] https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/cwo-rez-public-report-infrastructure-planner-recommendation-may-2024.pdf https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/... [4] https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/cwo-rez-public-report-infrastructure-planner-recommendation-may-2024.pdf https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/... [5] https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/costs-to-build-gas-plants-triple-says-ceo-of-nextera-energy/ https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/costs-to-build-gas-plants-tr...
      - ViewTrick1002 1y ago
        Yes. The grid needs to be expanded by 1.5 - 2.5x no matter what to electrify society and industry. The extra costs are what is needed when more distributed generation is added compared to the baseline. It also not like the current renewable supply will stop existing. > The CEO of NextEra Energy said that gas turbines have a multi-year backlog, leading to soaring costs for new gas-fired power plants. Renewables “are cheaper and available right now.” > “There is a lot of demand for gas turbines right now. You have to get in a long line. It has pushed the prices up,” NextEra Energy CEO John Ketchum said at CERAWeek. NextEra built 16 gigawatts of gas-fired power over the past two decades, and operates a fleet of 26 GW of gas capacity. It also builds renewable energy. > “We built our last gas-fired facility in 2022, at $785/kW. If we wanted to build that same gas-fired combined cycle unit today…$2,400/kW,” he said. “The cost of gas-fired generation has gone up three-fold.” Ahh yes, gas turbines are expensive because a supply crunch. Not because they inherently are expensive. Will this get fixed in the 20 years it would take to build nuclear power? Yes. Will likely even see several cycles of boom and bust before said nuclear plant comes online. Nuclear power simply is completely out of step with the current energy industry. Too expensive and too slow to build.

matthewdgreen 1y ago

A cheap system is a combination of cheap components, land, and the labor required to assemble it. But in terms of minimized labor costs, you just don’t get a lot better than PV and batteries. And there’s still room for cost reductions from technological improvements and more efficient PV.

chickenbig 1y ago
> A cheap system is a combination of cheap components, land, and the labor required to assemble it. The point is that cheap components may require the use of other components to compensate for its deficiencies, and so on. Solar panels need batteries, synchronous condensers, more transmission capacity, electrolysers, hydrogen storage, backup power stations, demand side response, etc.
- ViewTrick1002 1y ago
  And batteries are plummeting in cost as well. In Australia it was calculated that the extra grid upgrades for renewables comes out to $15B. That is less than the subsidies a single nuclear reactor needs. To electrify society and industry we need to expand our grids by 1.5-2.5x. Stringing an set of wires, using thicker ones or stepping up the voltage higher is a minuscule cost when already having to uprate the grid. Gas turbine emergency reserves would be $1B.
  - chickenbig 1y ago
    > In Australia it was calculated that the extra grid upgrades for renewables comes out to $15B. AEMO report from 2024 [1] page 13 note 2 very carefully draws the line around what the extra 16B AUD will pay for. This value is the net present value of capital costs for transmission augmentation up to 2049-50 only, and does not include the cost of commissioned, committed or anticipated projects. Committed and anticipated ISP projects :- Project EnergyConnect cost has ~doubled to 4.1B AUD [2] Central West Orana REZ is around 5.45B AUD [3] CopperString has escalated to 14B AUD although that might be partly due to general inflation [4] > Gas turbine emergency reserves would be $1B. Gas turbines are now about 2400 USD/kW (3750 AUD/kW), so 1B AUD results in ~267 MW of capacity. [1] https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2024/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp.pdf?la=en https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/202... [2] https://reneweconomy.com.au/deja-vu-on-transmission-project-cost-blowouts-as-price-of-energyconnect-doubles/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/deja-vu-on-transmission-project-... [3] https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/cwo-rez-public-report-infrastructure-planner-recommendation-may-2024.pdf https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/... [4] https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/cwo-rez-public-report-infrastructure-planner-recommendation-may-2024.pdf https://www.energyco.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/... [5] https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/costs-to-build-gas-plants-triple-says-ceo-of-nextera-energy/ https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/costs-to-build-gas-plants-tr...
    - ViewTrick1002 1y ago
      Yes. The grid needs to be expanded by 1.5 - 2.5x no matter what to electrify society and industry. The extra costs are what is needed when more distributed generation is added compared to the baseline. It also not like the current renewable supply will stop existing. > The CEO of NextEra Energy said that gas turbines have a multi-year backlog, leading to soaring costs for new gas-fired power plants. Renewables “are cheaper and available right now.” > “There is a lot of demand for gas turbines right now. You have to get in a long line. It has pushed the prices up,” NextEra Energy CEO John Ketchum said at CERAWeek. NextEra built 16 gigawatts of gas-fired power over the past two decades, and operates a fleet of 26 GW of gas capacity. It also builds renewable energy. > “We built our last gas-fired facility in 2022, at $785/kW. If we wanted to build that same gas-fired combined cycle unit today…$2,400/kW,” he said. “The cost of gas-fired generation has gone up three-fold.” Ahh yes, gas turbines are expensive because a supply crunch. Not because they inherently are expensive. Will this get fixed in the 20 years it would take to build nuclear power? Yes. Will likely even see several cycles of boom and bust before said nuclear plant comes online. Nuclear power simply is completely out of step with the current energy industry. Too expensive and too slow to build.