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I think this is definitely true in the sense that some tasks pf junior tech jobs are evaporating. But when computers became ubiquitous, bankers worried what as

I think this is definitely true in the sense that some tasks pf junior tech jobs are evaporating. But when computers became ubiquitous, bankers worried what associates would do for a living if nobody had to manually calculate spreadsheets—yet the finance internship is alive and well. I'm not saying this disruption will have no impact at all. But we'll keep finding things to do for young people, they'll just move up the chain of command.

whatevaa 1y ago
This is different than in the past. Evolving AI might replace All such positions.
- FinnLobsien 1y ago
  All positions we know today. At the time when computers went mainstream, it automated many jobs we no longer have (e.g. manually calculating spreadsheets), but also created new entry-level ones. People then couldn't even have predicted what a "social media intern" might do or that there could be "associate software engineers" (SWEs were basically magicians). I'm not saying there won't be disruption and tough times for a while, but I also think we'll figure out new things for young people (and ourselves) to do.
trod1234 1y ago
Hiring is down across the board in tech jobs. Brain drains occurring because its no longer economically viable and the most competent people with options will move to other areas and not turn back. There are people with 10 years of experience doing the job that can't find jobs in the field. I think you neglect how much the factor market has shrunk. It is a mistake to compare what's happened with past events and assume the future holds something similar. Anyone losing money on the stock market knows this intuitively. Its survivor bias. The problem also isn't about what to do with young people. That's a red herring. The critical problem is, what naturally happens in a sequential pipeline when nothing goes in, and the pipeline finishes having the remaining people coming out of it. Eventually its empty. At that point, no one will be able to hire such talent because it won't exist anymore, not at any price. The cost of labor in getting rid of those positions may drop in the short run, but then you get infinite cost for those positions that you need to replace in the form of you simply can't find people. Its what engineer's call a cascade failure. These are usually catastrophic, and rarely noticed at first except as a rule in blood (after the fact). You don't notice until its too late to do anything but that's a problem for next quarter thanks to money-printing/debt issuance, and it will keep being that until its too late. This is the problem when the majority of people have lost objective reality, which many people have slowly been noticing since 2016, and its just been growing worse. The smart competent people warn and ring the alarm bells, nothing happens, things get worse, braindrain happens because the competent people withdraw to focus on their own futures, and the cycle continues until it cannot. A runaway feedback loop.

whatevaa 1y ago

This is different than in the past. Evolving AI might replace All such positions.

FinnLobsien 1y ago
All positions we know today. At the time when computers went mainstream, it automated many jobs we no longer have (e.g. manually calculating spreadsheets), but also created new entry-level ones. People then couldn't even have predicted what a "social media intern" might do or that there could be "associate software engineers" (SWEs were basically magicians). I'm not saying there won't be disruption and tough times for a while, but I also think we'll figure out new things for young people (and ourselves) to do.

trod1234 1y ago

Hiring is down across the board in tech jobs. Brain drains occurring because its no longer economically viable and the most competent people with options will move to other areas and not turn back. There are people with 10 years of experience doing the job that can't find jobs in the field. I think you neglect how much the factor market has shrunk. It is a mistake to compare what's happened with past events and assume the future holds something similar. Anyone losing money on the stock market knows this intuitively. Its survivor bias. The problem also isn't about what to do with young people. That's a red herring. The critical problem is, what naturally happens in a sequential pipeline when nothing goes in, and the pipeline finishes having the remaining people coming out of it. Eventually its empty. At that point, no one will be able to hire such talent because it won't exist anymore, not at any price. The cost of labor in getting rid of those positions may drop in the short run, but then you get infinite cost for those positions that you need to replace in the form of you simply can't find people. Its what engineer's call a cascade failure. These are usually catastrophic, and rarely noticed at first except as a rule in blood (after the fact). You don't notice until its too late to do anything but that's a problem for next quarter thanks to money-printing/debt issuance, and it will keep being that until its too late. This is the problem when the majority of people have lost objective reality, which many people have slowly been noticing since 2016, and its just been growing worse. The smart competent people warn and ring the alarm bells, nothing happens, things get worse, braindrain happens because the competent people withdraw to focus on their own futures, and the cycle continues until it cannot. A runaway feedback loop.