Probability of dying in a random accident is the probability of a random accident occuring times the probability of dying from a random accident conditional on

Probability of dying in a random accident is the probability of a random accident occuring times the probability of dying from a random accident conditional on one occurring. I am not convinced that fitness would be entirely unassociated with both of these probabilities, particularly the latter. Meaning that the extent to which this outcome is a good negative control is overestimated.