4 ms·

> It occurs to me that Efilists don't need to do much of anything. Quite. The fertility rate is plummeting worldwide. I'd suggest these 'Efilists' visit South

> It occurs to me that Efilists don't need to do much of anything. Quite. The fertility rate is plummeting worldwide. I'd suggest these 'Efilists' visit South Korea to get their fix of low fertility. Even the nice Scandinavian countries are struggling to get their fertility rates anywhere near replacement—they are all at around 1.4 to 1.5 children per woman. At this rate we will erase ourselves in about 200 years.

AnimalMuppet 1y ago
> At this rate we will erase ourselves in about 200 years. Not at all. Two hundred years is, what, 8 generations? (1.5/2)^8 = 0.1. We'd have a tenth the population in 200 years, so 800 million people. That may erase modern civilization, but it won't erase us.
protocolture 1y ago
>At this rate we will erase ourselves in about 200 years. Hang on let me check how much horse manure london is covered with rn and get back to you.
UncleMeat 1y ago
The global population is still rising. Erase ourselves?
- delta_p_delta_x 1y ago
  Perhaps I was being a tad hyperbolic, but yes, the human population is strongly expected to collapse after a peak some time this century. To precisely what extent is still debated, but there is consensus that it will happen. Many studies have consistently revised and brought forward their 'peak population' estimates over the past two decades. In 2000, the estimate was around twelve billion by 2150. In 2025, whether humanity will reach even ten billion by 2075 is in question. It is highly expected that many sub-Saharan countries will reach replacement rate by the mid-century. China's population has already started falling. Many Indian states are below replacement. Nigeria—a good proxy for the rest of Africa—was expected to reach ~900 million by 2100 in 2012; in 2024, that estimate was essentially halved. There is a strong correlation between education levels and emancipation (especially for girls and women), improved sanitation and health care (which means easier access to contraceptives), and fertility rate. This is what drove the fertility rate collapse in the post-war period for much of the West and East Asia. Further reductions are a result of worse work-life balance (in the case of the 'Asian tigers'), a desire to enjoy one's freedom in young adulthood (coupled with a desire to 'stick it to society'), a lack of 'a village to raise a child' in urban lifestyles, and more.

AnimalMuppet 1y ago

> At this rate we will erase ourselves in about 200 years. Not at all. Two hundred years is, what, 8 generations? (1.5/2)^8 = 0.1. We'd have a tenth the population in 200 years, so 800 million people. That may erase modern civilization, but it won't erase us.

protocolture 1y ago

>At this rate we will erase ourselves in about 200 years. Hang on let me check how much horse manure london is covered with rn and get back to you.

UncleMeat 1y ago

The global population is still rising. Erase ourselves?

delta_p_delta_x 1y ago
Perhaps I was being a tad hyperbolic, but yes, the human population is strongly expected to collapse after a peak some time this century. To precisely what extent is still debated, but there is consensus that it will happen. Many studies have consistently revised and brought forward their 'peak population' estimates over the past two decades. In 2000, the estimate was around twelve billion by 2150. In 2025, whether humanity will reach even ten billion by 2075 is in question. It is highly expected that many sub-Saharan countries will reach replacement rate by the mid-century. China's population has already started falling. Many Indian states are below replacement. Nigeria—a good proxy for the rest of Africa—was expected to reach ~900 million by 2100 in 2012; in 2024, that estimate was essentially halved. There is a strong correlation between education levels and emancipation (especially for girls and women), improved sanitation and health care (which means easier access to contraceptives), and fertility rate. This is what drove the fertility rate collapse in the post-war period for much of the West and East Asia. Further reductions are a result of worse work-life balance (in the case of the 'Asian tigers'), a desire to enjoy one's freedom in young adulthood (coupled with a desire to 'stick it to society'), a lack of 'a village to raise a child' in urban lifestyles, and more.