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No. The fact that it’s so incredibly unlikely and inconceivable is exactly why anyone who matters doesn’t care what Moodys rates the U.S. It doesn’t make it an

No. The fact that it’s so incredibly unlikely and inconceivable is exactly why anyone who matters doesn’t care what Moodys rates the U.S. It doesn’t make it any less true.

delta_p_delta_x 1y ago
> It doesn’t make it any less true. Yes, it does. Let me indulge your fantasy scenario. What makes you think that in a real hot war between the US and its former allies, the US will continue to maintain its economic sovereignty and continue unscathed? Let's talk military first. Have you considered the effects of a direct total-war attack on the population centres of the Eastern sea board? A dirty bomb? What about mines and covert unmanned marine drone attacks on your aircraft carriers? They're not invulnerable; a decent amount of conventional explosive can blow a big enough hole in any ship to scuttle it. Let's talk economics. Under such a war, what makes you think every other country will continue to respect US IP laws? The proprietary source code of many large US tech firms are in non-US servers. US hardware and industrial design blueprints are in the hands of non-US companies, who respect a gentlemen's agreement. What makes you think developers using and maintaining these servers wouldn't be asked to go rogue and publish all this IP? It's easy to say 'we'll go to war over debt'. It's a lot harder to actually tie up your boots, pick up your rifle, get in a plane, parachute down, and start shooting other people... Who would shoot back.
- transcriptase 1y ago
  While you’re coming at it from the opposite direction and arriving at the exact same place, I’m glad you understand my point.
  - delta_p_delta_x 1y ago
    > the exact same place I'm saying if other countries want to debt-collect in case of a default, there are other levers they can tweak besides just showing up at the US' door and saying 'give us our money back'. There are trade levers like tariffs, bonds, foreign currency reserves, gold reserves, and more. And I daresay in a concerted effort the US wouldn't be able to do much, unless it dares to risk enraging the entire world. In which case it would be able to do less still. Funnily enough, it has already got halfway there, which was precisely my point. And sufficient damage was done to the markets that it managed to erase 4 years' worth of growth in one week flat, with a rather muted recovery afterwards.

No. The fact that it’s so incredibly unlikely and inconceivable is exactly why anyone who matters doesn’t care what Moodys rates the U.S. It doesn’t make it any less true.

delta_p_delta_x 1y ago

> It doesn’t make it any less true. Yes, it does. Let me indulge your fantasy scenario. What makes you think that in a real hot war between the US and its former allies, the US will continue to maintain its economic sovereignty and continue unscathed? Let's talk military first. Have you considered the effects of a direct total-war attack on the population centres of the Eastern sea board? A dirty bomb? What about mines and covert unmanned marine drone attacks on your aircraft carriers? They're not invulnerable; a decent amount of conventional explosive can blow a big enough hole in any ship to scuttle it. Let's talk economics. Under such a war, what makes you think every other country will continue to respect US IP laws? The proprietary source code of many large US tech firms are in non-US servers. US hardware and industrial design blueprints are in the hands of non-US companies, who respect a gentlemen's agreement. What makes you think developers using and maintaining these servers wouldn't be asked to go rogue and publish all this IP? It's easy to say 'we'll go to war over debt'. It's a lot harder to actually tie up your boots, pick up your rifle, get in a plane, parachute down, and start shooting other people... Who would shoot back.

transcriptase 1y ago
While you’re coming at it from the opposite direction and arriving at the exact same place, I’m glad you understand my point.
- delta_p_delta_x 1y ago
  > the exact same place I'm saying if other countries want to debt-collect in case of a default, there are other levers they can tweak besides just showing up at the US' door and saying 'give us our money back'. There are trade levers like tariffs, bonds, foreign currency reserves, gold reserves, and more. And I daresay in a concerted effort the US wouldn't be able to do much, unless it dares to risk enraging the entire world. In which case it would be able to do less still. Funnily enough, it has already got halfway there, which was precisely my point. And sufficient damage was done to the markets that it managed to erase 4 years' worth of growth in one week flat, with a rather muted recovery afterwards.