3 ms·

I agree, this is makes no sense at all. Can I take the other side of this investment? Like an angel funding round, but selling short?

debatem1 1y ago
If you figure out how to do this I will invest in your fund.
- rjbwork 1y ago
  Gotta figure out how to sell these guys shovels
  - rogerrogerr 1y ago
    If someone figured out how to provide a way to bet against startups… could we say they’re selling grave shovels?
- echelon 1y ago
  A futures market for startup equity where you can short sell would be wild. Otherwise when the big firms go public (A16Z etc.), options trading on their stock.
jsheard 1y ago
I think the other side of this is just buying Amazon stock based on the daring prediction that big grey buildings full of servers aren't going anywhere.
- echoangle 1y ago
  That still leaves you with the risk that Amazon is replaced by other earth-based data center operators.
  - vrosas 1y ago
    Maybe you could buy small lots of a bunch of different data center companies to hedge your risk!
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  Datacenter REITs. (not investing advice)
CobrastanJorji 1y ago
You know, that's a fascinating idea. Most startups fail, a few modestly succeed, but the unicorns are so profitable that they mostly make up for the rest. That reminds me of two fields: insurance and gambling. Venture Capitalists are already like reverse insurance companies. They cover lots of people in the hopes that one of them will hit a rare event and it'll pay for the others. Buying shares of a single startup is sort of the equivalent of betting on a specific horse to win a race. But what's the equivalent of lay betting (betting that a specific horse will NOT win)? Shorting? But you can't short a private company. But wait, venture capitalists are already betting that their startups will make money. What if they were willing to double down a bit and accept lay bets? Say there was a kind of specialized short agreement that let you say "here is $x, if in N years company Y has less than $z profit/revenue, I get K*$x. Otherwise, VC gets to keep my $x." You could sell it to VCs as a way to do options trading on their own startup investments, plus it'd be a good way to get the wisdom of the crowds or whatever.
lionkor 1y ago
The SSI fund - shorting shit ideas since 2025.
lionkor 1y ago
Wait, I just realized - you do this by pitching your own shit idea. That's the other side of the investment!
moralestapia 1y ago
I've been saying this as a joke for a while (IMHO I think Perplexity is a scam). I really wish there was a secondary for private equity.
thenaturalist 1y ago
You obv. can't cause that would be a considerably easier and hence not a payoff worthy bet than the inverse of picking winners from an aspiring group of people trying to do something new in the world. For all the financial inefficiencies of that - objectively - we get to benefit as humanity from the (expensive) mistakes of others. So here's to whatever this is leading to much better insights about computing in space at best!
chaseadam17 1y ago
Start a market on Polymarket that they go bankrupt in X years?

debatem1 1y ago

If you figure out how to do this I will invest in your fund.

rjbwork 1y ago
Gotta figure out how to sell these guys shovels
- rogerrogerr 1y ago
  If someone figured out how to provide a way to bet against startups… could we say they’re selling grave shovels?
echelon 1y ago
A futures market for startup equity where you can short sell would be wild. Otherwise when the big firms go public (A16Z etc.), options trading on their stock.

jsheard 1y ago

I think the other side of this is just buying Amazon stock based on the daring prediction that big grey buildings full of servers aren't going anywhere.

echoangle 1y ago
That still leaves you with the risk that Amazon is replaced by other earth-based data center operators.
- vrosas 1y ago
  Maybe you could buy small lots of a bunch of different data center companies to hedge your risk!
toomuchtodo 1y ago
Datacenter REITs. (not investing advice)

CobrastanJorji 1y ago

You know, that's a fascinating idea. Most startups fail, a few modestly succeed, but the unicorns are so profitable that they mostly make up for the rest. That reminds me of two fields: insurance and gambling. Venture Capitalists are already like reverse insurance companies. They cover lots of people in the hopes that one of them will hit a rare event and it'll pay for the others. Buying shares of a single startup is sort of the equivalent of betting on a specific horse to win a race. But what's the equivalent of lay betting (betting that a specific horse will NOT win)? Shorting? But you can't short a private company. But wait, venture capitalists are already betting that their startups will make money. What if they were willing to double down a bit and accept lay bets? Say there was a kind of specialized short agreement that let you say "here is $x, if in N years company Y has less than $z profit/revenue, I get K*$x. Otherwise, VC gets to keep my $x." You could sell it to VCs as a way to do options trading on their own startup investments, plus it'd be a good way to get the wisdom of the crowds or whatever.

lionkor 1y ago

The SSI fund - shorting shit ideas since 2025.

lionkor 1y ago

Wait, I just realized - you do this by pitching your own shit idea. That's the other side of the investment!

moralestapia 1y ago

I've been saying this as a joke for a while (IMHO I think Perplexity is a scam). I really wish there was a secondary for private equity.

thenaturalist 1y ago

You obv. can't cause that would be a considerably easier and hence not a payoff worthy bet than the inverse of picking winners from an aspiring group of people trying to do something new in the world. For all the financial inefficiencies of that - objectively - we get to benefit as humanity from the (expensive) mistakes of others. So here's to whatever this is leading to much better insights about computing in space at best!

chaseadam17 1y ago

Start a market on Polymarket that they go bankrupt in X years?