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Texas should be careful what they ask for; they might get it. Their intention is obviously to protect their gas exploitation industry and sell lots of gas. But

Texas should be careful what they ask for; they might get it. Their intention is obviously to protect their gas exploitation industry and sell lots of gas. But the net result might actually be making gas power plants more redundant faster. Batteries would allow solar plants to provide power when the sun doesn't shine. And those are of course already being deployed in record numbers on the grid and very popular in combination with wind and solar setups. Any surplus of battery capacity would weaken the business case for operating gas plants and push those into the role of peaker plants. Australia is a good benchmark of what that looks like. Several of their states run on solar and battery most of the time with coal/gas plants only switching on occasionally now.

Hamuko 1y ago
I was just thinking that this might result in more renewables, as the article states how renewable plants are faster to get online and have been almost all of new production. Make a law demanding more power → power demand grows rapidly → new power supply is required here and now → companies prioritise whatever power source gets them there faster.
toomuchtodo 1y ago
They can’t build the gas plants (backlog to build them is ~5 years with GE and Siemens, and the costs are accelerating beyond reasonable commercial costs). At the same time, ERCOT is projecting supply shortages both this year, and more so in future years due to demand growth. Record May Peak Demand Coming Wednesday: Grid Roundup #57 - https://www.douglewin.com/p/record-may-peak-demand-coming-wednesday https://www.douglewin.com/p/record-may-peak-demand-coming-we... - May 12th, 2025 ("ERCOT is forecasting a peak of over 84 gigawatts which would shatter the previous May record of 77 gigawatts and even threaten the all-time demand record. ERCOT expects plenty of extra capacity despite large thermal power plant outages; solar power is expected to deliver well over 20 gigawatts. Should various anti-energy bills (SB 715/HB 3356, SB 388, SB 819) become law, these kinds of events would almost certainly create energy emergencies") Energy groups scrap Texas-backed projects as costs rise - https://www.ft.com/content/19a52438-b529-43a8-9a83-b2d680f3d7e3 https://www.ft.com/content/19a52438-b529-43a8-9a83-b2d680f3d... | https://archive.today/lsKf9 https://archive.today/lsKf9 - May 12th, 2025 Texas Attempt to Kickstart New Gas-Fired Power Is Stumbling - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-05/texas-attempt-to-kickstart-new-gas-fired-power-is-stumbling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-05/texas-att... | https://archive.today/9jRPq https://archive.today/9jRPq - April 5th, 2025 Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) in the ERCOT Region, 2025-2029 - https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2025/02/12/CapacityDemandandReservesReport_December2024.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2025/02/12/CapacityDemandan... [pdf] - February 13th, 2025
- chneu 1y ago
  Isn't basically every major electricity infrastructure plan quite far behind schedule because of supply shortages? I remember reading that transformers, especially the larger kinds, are on a 3+ year backorder. Solar and wind farms are having to order all their parts like 5 years in advance cuz of it.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    No, solar and batteries can be installed in 18-24 months, from groundbreaking to first kW to the grid. Transformers for transmission? Gas plants? Yes, supply chain issues, the former with ~1 year lead times, the latter with half decade lead times. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586
    - chneu 1y ago
      https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electric-transformer-shortage-nrel-niac/738947/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electric-transformer-shorta... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/03/07/a-look-at-the-great-transformer-shortage-affecting-u-s-utilities/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/03/07/a-look-at-the-great-t...
      - toomuchtodo 1y ago
        I don’t disagree there are transformer shortages. I disagree these shortages make combustion fossil generation more favorable than renewables for new generation capacity. The generation technology is irrelevant as it relates to these transformer shortages you demonstrate. The gas generator backlogs (~5 years) I mention in my top comment are gas generator specific, due to their specific supply chain and labor needs.
Incipient 1y ago
>Australia is a good benchmark of what that looks like. Several of their states run on solar and battery most of the time with coal/gas plants only switching on occasionally now. I'm in Australia and have absolutely zero clue this is a thing. Do you have any sources for this? As far as I was aware we only had a few batteries that didn't really last too long (at a grid scale).

Hamuko 1y ago

I was just thinking that this might result in more renewables, as the article states how renewable plants are faster to get online and have been almost all of new production. Make a law demanding more power → power demand grows rapidly → new power supply is required here and now → companies prioritise whatever power source gets them there faster.

toomuchtodo 1y ago

They can’t build the gas plants (backlog to build them is ~5 years with GE and Siemens, and the costs are accelerating beyond reasonable commercial costs). At the same time, ERCOT is projecting supply shortages both this year, and more so in future years due to demand growth. Record May Peak Demand Coming Wednesday: Grid Roundup #57 - https://www.douglewin.com/p/record-may-peak-demand-coming-wednesday https://www.douglewin.com/p/record-may-peak-demand-coming-we... - May 12th, 2025 ("ERCOT is forecasting a peak of over 84 gigawatts which would shatter the previous May record of 77 gigawatts and even threaten the all-time demand record. ERCOT expects plenty of extra capacity despite large thermal power plant outages; solar power is expected to deliver well over 20 gigawatts. Should various anti-energy bills (SB 715/HB 3356, SB 388, SB 819) become law, these kinds of events would almost certainly create energy emergencies") Energy groups scrap Texas-backed projects as costs rise - https://www.ft.com/content/19a52438-b529-43a8-9a83-b2d680f3d7e3 https://www.ft.com/content/19a52438-b529-43a8-9a83-b2d680f3d... | https://archive.today/lsKf9 https://archive.today/lsKf9 - May 12th, 2025 Texas Attempt to Kickstart New Gas-Fired Power Is Stumbling - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-05/texas-attempt-to-kickstart-new-gas-fired-power-is-stumbling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-05/texas-att... | https://archive.today/9jRPq https://archive.today/9jRPq - April 5th, 2025 Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) in the ERCOT Region, 2025-2029 - https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2025/02/12/CapacityDemandandReservesReport_December2024.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2025/02/12/CapacityDemandan... [pdf] - February 13th, 2025

chneu 1y ago
Isn't basically every major electricity infrastructure plan quite far behind schedule because of supply shortages? I remember reading that transformers, especially the larger kinds, are on a 3+ year backorder. Solar and wind farms are having to order all their parts like 5 years in advance cuz of it.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  No, solar and batteries can be installed in 18-24 months, from groundbreaking to first kW to the grid. Transformers for transmission? Gas plants? Yes, supply chain issues, the former with ~1 year lead times, the latter with half decade lead times. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586
  - chneu 1y ago
    https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electric-transformer-shortage-nrel-niac/738947/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electric-transformer-shorta... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/03/07/a-look-at-the-great-transformer-shortage-affecting-u-s-utilities/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/03/07/a-look-at-the-great-t...
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      I don’t disagree there are transformer shortages. I disagree these shortages make combustion fossil generation more favorable than renewables for new generation capacity. The generation technology is irrelevant as it relates to these transformer shortages you demonstrate. The gas generator backlogs (~5 years) I mention in my top comment are gas generator specific, due to their specific supply chain and labor needs.

Incipient 1y ago

>Australia is a good benchmark of what that looks like. Several of their states run on solar and battery most of the time with coal/gas plants only switching on occasionally now. I'm in Australia and have absolutely zero clue this is a thing. Do you have any sources for this? As far as I was aware we only had a few batteries that didn't really last too long (at a grid scale).