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Elon Musk: Next Six Months Crucial to Tesla's future
- startupfounder 14y agoThis is the issue: charging times & price point. To sell units beyond their first adopters they need to address key issues with electric cars (and I am all for EVs). What they need to do is license their technology to Ford and GM to get mass market appeal and to help build/develop EVs in the $20k range. As the article states, "It projects selling 20,000 cars next year, which is a relatively high number among luxury brands." This is really what is going to happen: the will be acquired by a larger brand.
- Retric 14y agoI live on the east coast and I am staring to see a fair number of charging stations in garages. So far it's mostly for corporate cars but I have been thinking Car sharing services could be well served by going electric. They generally own the parking space, the car is moving short distances, but while plugging them in is easy refilling the tank is something of a pain. It's probably not a huge market but selling say 5k cars per year to that market seems vary doable with the added bonus that initial costs are less important.
- draggnar 14y agoCar2go, which is part of Daimler, is doing this in some cities with their Smart-car car sharing program (some cities use both electric and gas Smart cars). Tesla technology is in the Smart EV's.
- at-fates-hands 14y ago"It projects selling 20,000 cars next year, which is a relatively high number among luxury brands." Actually this is quite low. BMW sells around 110K units a year in the US alone - http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html Although I do agree the best bet for the survival of the technology is to get bought by a larger brand.
- twoodfin 14y ago> Actually this is quite low. BMW sells around 110K units a year in the US alone... I could be wrong about this, but I suspect the median selling price of a BMW in the U.S. is about $10,000 less than the cheapest Model S. Selling 20,000 cars that start at $50K would be a feat.
- cynicalkane 14y agoBMW has 10 different models, and their best-seller--the 3 series--has a considerably lower base price than the Model S.
- pwny 14y agoElon Musk, I forbid you to let Tesla fail before I can afford to buy a model S.
- atae 14y agoIf he knows it's going to fail, he should consider putting a death ray on a militarized Model S with bullet proof windows. Maybe with optional retractable VTOL (Tesla's last patent) side lifters. He could probably sell it to the US government and save Tesla.
- MartinCron 14y agoI'm sure that Bruce Wayne would buy one, maybe two.
- davidp 14y agoI think he may have just tanked his chances. People buying cars in that price range 1) expect to have mechanical service available for the foreseeable future, and 2) don't like to be associated with losers. You don't want to drop $90k on a cool new car and then six months later have your friends roll their eyes or pity you when you roll up at the party.
- nagrom 14y agoIt seems like an odd interview to give; almost more like a rallying call to staff than a marketing pitch to the public. But whenever I've seen an interview with Elon Musk, he's always been extremely honest. Maybe he's not thinking this through as a marketing pitch and just being honest about the challenges ahead?
- pwny 14y agoIt reads to me like he's conscious of the challenge his company will face rather than admitting defeat. This is a good thing. I also expect the man whose other company sends stuff into space to be able to lead this one to overcoming those challenges.
- corin_ 14y agoPoint one is valid, but point two: surely if the company dies then the exclusivity feel of your car goes way up, and it becomes more cool not less.
- ednc 14y agoAgreed. I'd still love to have a Delorean.
- MartinCron 14y agoI think there will always be a DeLorean support cottage industry. I hope so, anyway.
- bengl3rt 14y agoUntil you need a replacement part, and they're out of production... For a discontinued car (or, a car made by a defunct company) to still be drivable, there needs to be a sufficiently large community of enthusiasts around it that have figured out how to fabricate the parts that are no longer available. Now, this has certainly happened. Lots of cars from the 1920s and on are still on the road, and a cottage industry has sprung up around keeping them running. However, the defining feature of these cars is that a substantial amount were sold. Getting parts made in the future for a very unusual and technologically advanced car like a Tesla if the company is no longer around is going to be very expensive indeed. It will cross from being a daily driver to being a project car, and the owner will need to be very dedicated to the project.
- racbart 14y agoI wouldn't buy a car if I expected the company might be dead in six months. Who'll service my car then? This isn't a well-known and old brand with independent service centers. Did Elon Musk just told me not to buy their cars? Thanks for the tip.
- pbreit 14y agoA fair concern but probably unwarranted since a larger company would snap it up at some price. And then you might actually have better (more, at least) service options.
- akandiah 14y agoIf gas prices do not rise, Telsa will be in trouble.
- draggnar 14y agoNot necessarily. What Tesla is proposing is a better car. The Model S is safer, more comfortable, and more practical. The demand is clearly there, at this point it is a question of if Tesla can deliver.
- nhebb 14y ago> The base price is just under $50,000 after factoring in a $7,500 tax credit. But models with a large enough battery to allow for a 300 mile range will be priced at $87,900 after the tax credit. Great. So American taxpayers are essentially subsidizing luxury automobiles.
- zefhous 14y agoThe subsidies are for plug-in electric vehicles in general. They apply to other cars like the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt as well. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_incentives_for_plug-in_electric_vehicles#United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_incentives_for_plug-...
- zach 14y agoWe should subsidize things that are already affordable instead? Um...
- aggronn 14y agoOr rather we should subsidize things that need to be affordable. Luxury cars are explicitly not meant to be affordable, so his point stands. What both of you have missed is the actual reason for subsidy, which is the fuel efficiency.
- nhebb 14y agoI can't speak for others, but I didn't miss the fuel efficiency aspect. If electric automobiles are ever going to make a significant environmental impact, they will need to priced for the masses.
- schiffern 14y agoYou do know that that's exactly Tesla Motors' stated goal, right? http://elonmusktesla.wordpress.com/2012/07/16/truly-affordable-tesla-electric-sedan-to-launch-in-2015/ http://elonmusktesla.wordpress.com/2012/07/16/truly-affordab...
- ttunguz 14y agoThe big challenge no one speaks about is the auto workers' unions which will change the cost structure to produce these cars. This cost increase is coming in the next few years.
- jwooden 14y agoI disagree, although it may be potentially a problem in the future. It seems like Tesla however isn't using manufacturing techniques/processes that the rest of the industry follows. Most of the assembly is done using advanced robots, the cost increase seems to be the support and the development of these robots. The reason I appreciate tesla, is because it doesnt have all the legacy and baggage a traditional car manufacturer has, and thus they have the ability to try bold things. On top of it, they are doing it all in america.
- andrewtbham 14y agoMost car manufacturers have production plants in the US. I live in Alabama there are Mercedes, Honda and Hyundai plants. BMW is in South Carolina. Toyota Prius is built in Mississippi. The land and power are cheap, the wages are reasonable and there is not a lot of union activity.
- kylecordes 14y agoIt seems to me that the critical period for persuading people to buy them, is down the metaphorical road a bit. At the moment it appears from their web site that they are still selling "reservations". There is a nice video on their web site celebrating delivery of some cars - which I think implies they aren't just handing them over to willing buyers yet. The hard part starts when all that is past: when they build enough cars to have them sitting at dealerships, either being bought or not. (For that matter, if they really want revenue, why not keep churning out the Roadster? Surely there would be a few thousand more people willing and able to buy one.)
- Synthetase 14y agoDemand is not an issue. There were 12,200 reservations as of July. That's enough to keep busy for the rest this year and into Q2 of next year. If demand were truly an issue, we would see some sort of advertising spend. When was the last time you saw a Tesla TV commercial? The next six months are critical because it determines whether or not Tesla can be a profitable venture. Can they make a profit with full production? If they have any unforeseen expenditures they are screwed. If there are any recalls, they are screwed. However, I am pretty confident Tesla will be able to pull through given their track record.
- andyl 14y agoI appreciate Musk's honesty. I've seen many critical situations where leaders fudge to make things seem more stable than they are. I'm rooting for Tesla's success.
- mgallivan 14y agoThis might seem obnoxious but I'm sure Mr. Musk has a number of celebrity acquaintances. Surely their help would put him well on his way to 20,000?
- wmf 14y agoI suspect they're having no trouble selling cars; the only question is whether they can manufacture the cars they've already sold.
- atae 14y agoWhat's stopping Elon Musk from working with Shai Agassi at Better Place? Doesn't Shai have an open offer for a $3-4 billion contract for a US automaker to produce an electric car that works in their battery-swapping station network? I realize the offer is to a major US automaker which is much different but it just seems like a brilliant billionaire like Elon Musk and an amazing entrepreneur like Shai Agassi (who has raised $900MM+) could pull it off.
- tocomment 14y agoHere's a creative idea to partially solve the charging problem. Have people buy the fast chargers for their homes, and then get listed in a database where people could stop by and pay for a charge on their travels. It would be like AirBnB but for charging electric cars.
- schiffern 14y agoWhy would I buy a fast-charger for my home? It will never pay for itself in fees, and you don't need one at home – overnight charging meets essentially everyone's needs in that case. Edit: just to be clear, I support people sharing their chargers. But fast charging is overkill.
- sukuriant 14y ago... because it allows for an 80% charge in a very short amount of time... you're extending the infrastructure of places you can charge Teslas; and if you monetize it ($15-20 for full, fast charge) then you're making money.
- schiffern 14y ago> ... because it allows for an 80% charge in a very short amount of time... I know what a fast-charger does, but you still don't need one at home. You need to sleep, remember? Do you need a gas station in your garage? > you're extending the infrastructure of places you can charge Teslas At $25k/station you're going to need more than "the cause". > if you monetize it ($15-20 for full, fast charge) then you're making money. I assumed so. You'll still never make back what you put in. Current prices are around $7 for a 30 minute charge. Of that, $2 is electricity. You'll also need to pay the electric company extra to have a bigger connection to the grid (>100A at 480V), which usually costs hundreds of $ per month.
- wtetzner 14y ago> I know what a fast-charger does, but you still don't need one at home. You need to sleep, remember? Yes, you need sleep. Are the people that you're sharing your charger with going to sleep at your house?
- elchief 14y agoI work with a car dealer and he said that one cannot import a Tesla to Canada. Anyone know why? Thx
- colmvp 14y agoAre you sure about that? Seems like it is becoming possible. http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/canadian-pricing-out-i-am-tears http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/canadian-pricing-out... Also: lol at the price. I get why it's that expensive (tariff, taxes) but wow, I can't see them moving many.
- elchief 14y agoMaybe he meant "at a reasonable price"
- allertonm 14y agoDo you mean import used? They are on sale here: http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/canada/ http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/canada/
- BigTuna 14y agoCtrl-F "Friedman Unit" 0 results. HN, I am disappoint.
- bubbleRefuge 14y agoHeard on NPR that batteries on EV's can only be charged around 500 times. This came from that Berkley professor that was a global warming skeptic until the recent conclusion of a research study -that he participated in- indicating that most of global warming was caused by fuel burning. Of-coarse the study was funded by the Koch brothers and proposed that the world move to natural gas. It wouldn't surprise me if the Koch brothers have large investments in natural gas. Does anyone know if the battery charge comment has any validity?
- schiffern 14y agoAll lithium batteries are not created equal. LiCoO2 batteries indeed have charge-cycle lives in the hundreds, but LiFePO4 batteries (as seen in the Volt, Leaf, etc) can reach 10,000 cycles or more. All this depends on charge/discharge rate, temperature, etc. The Roadster's complicated battery system is required because they used LiCoO2 batteries. :\
- Retric 14y agoThe electric cost of a charge is ~2$, and you get ~250 miles a charge x 500 = 125,000 miles for 1,000$. Assuming 3.5$/G gas + 30MPG + 125,000 miles costs 14,500$. That leaves ~13,500$ to pay for the next battery pack and the overhead charging. PS: The real issue is it's not a smooth transition, but if you assume the 2nd battery pack is not worth it you get 250,000 miles including 1 replacement pack.
- beefman 14y agoThe battery pack costs more than that, alas. The price may come down as the scale of recycling (and hence, the amount recyclers can pay for used batteries) goes up. The price per Wh for Li-ion has also been falling at a fairly steady rate. And of course, gas prices may go up. We should also consider the depreciation of components in a conventional car that the electric drivetrain replaces. They should depreciate faster because they are less efficient and must deal with the additional heat they dissipate. They require an intake and exhaust system, complicated transmission, pumps, valves, lubricants...
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- lazyjones 14y agoThey should launch in Europe earlier, we spend a lot more money on cars here, have shorter daily routes (guessing!) and care a little more about fuel costs (more expensive here).