> I find myself in the unexpected, uncomfortable position of wildly contradicting and undermining what I thought I understood: that people are terrible at predi

> I find myself in the unexpected, uncomfortable position of wildly contradicting and undermining what I thought I understood: that people are terrible at predicting the future of technology. By and large, I think you're still right. But by the late '90s and early 2000s, the internet wasn't "the future of technology". It was already the present of technology. Anyone paying attention could already see by 1994 or 1995 that the Internet was a) a big deal, and b) growing massively. The key at that point was not figuring out that the technology was going to be huge; it was figuring out which companies using that technology would be huge—ie, predicting with more granularity the future of the technology that was the World Wide Web. And investors failed at that. Hard. That's what caused the dot-com bust.