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A reasonable person doesn’t start a company with a stated goal to make humans a multi planetary species. A reasonable person thinks, “it sure would be neat if
by al_borland 2y ago
A reasonable person doesn’t start a company with a stated goal to make humans a multi planetary species.
A reasonable person thinks, “it sure would be neat if there was a way for humans to live on Mars,” then finishes his shower and goes to work selling insurance.
To get some of these advancements in the world, it takes giving a little allowance to the unhinged from time to time.
- lawn 2y agoOnly a nazi could possibly make way for humanity to live on Mars, right?
- ronsor 2y agoWell, actually... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun
- watwut 2y agoAnd then proceeds to engage in biggest govermental corruption and destruction we have seen. No, we can get and do get advances without people like Musk. They seem slower, because they lie less and defraud less. Which is net positive.
- myvoiceismypass 2y ago“Best case, 10 years. Worst case, 15 to 20 years” - Elon Musk in 2011 on when men would get to Mars.
- al_borland 2y agoWho among us hasn't been wrong when estimating a timeline, especially decades into the future?
- lawn 2y agoThere's a difference between well-informed estimates and picking estimates out of thin air.
- al_borland 2y agoWe are still within his estimate window; he hasn't missed it yet. Giving ambitious public goals can help to create some urgency around finding solutions. It's not all that dissimilar to Kennedy claiming we'd make it to the moon within the decade back in 1961. I'm sure he has his skeptics as well. Without a target, and the expectation being decades, it can easily stretch on forever as teams bike shed around various things. Will SpaceX hit their target... who knows. But it's not like it's a vaporware company that hasn't made any progress. Dismissing everything they've done so far based on an assumption that they will miss an ambitious target set 14 years ago just seems like being a hater.
- lawn 2y agoFool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It's disingenuous to look at this estimate in isolation while Elon has a decade of (with the charitable take) completely failed predictions.
- Zigurd 2y agoWhat made me very skeptical about Starship is that Elon seems to think that software people have the right idea about project management for everything. When in fact software is the oddball. Almost every other kind of project should be done the traditional way. Agile doesn't work for most things outside of software and the way Elon views. The style of management is as an excuse to make bullshit pronouncements about timelines.
- Timon3 2y agoThe same man has been making predictions about his products for over a decade without meeting them. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_auto...
- Zigurd 2y agoNobody's going to Mars on that thing. It's never going to be human rated.