I don't mean to imply that stock prices are perfectly normal/lognormal/insert your favorite distro here. Nor do I mean to imply that future price action will ma

I don't mean to imply that stock prices are perfectly normal/lognormal/insert your favorite distro here. Nor do I mean to imply that future price action will match past price. It's just a simple model to illustrate that compared to historical price action you'd need a pretty big 2 day move for the stock to hit $17. How would you evaluate the risk/reward profile of this option?