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In 10 years, I suspect we will have more off-shoring, extremely few entry/mid jobs on-shore, and an increasing push towards being tech lead like guides. I think

In 10 years, I suspect we will have more off-shoring, extremely few entry/mid jobs on-shore, and an increasing push towards being tech lead like guides. I think companies will use off-shore labor and LLMs to do most of the grunt work while we have senior+ engineers focused on guiding those people/agents. It's just one more step in the multi-generational trend of eliminating/outsourcing lower skilled jobs and increasing the barriers to entry for the remaining jobs. I'm not optimistic.

DaSHacka 1y ago
Of all the speculation in this thread, I unfortunately suspect this is the likeliest outcome.
- Tade0 1y ago
  Hailing from a popular outsourcing destination I think the GP missed the mark somewhat. Outsourcing isn't just grunt work. It's almost all work, but cheaper and with less control over the outcome. There will be no "guiding people/LLMs". You have talented people all over the globe and to date what the best of the best were doing is move to the US. Those were the people guiding/managing outsourced teams, not Americans. You see this now with the "Indians hiring Indians" phenomenon. Trump put the brakes on that, so currently the only thing that's certain is uncertainty. My take is that there will be an attempt to replace at least the bottom end of outsourcing with LLMs, so more pressure on offshore labour to perform and, over time, fewer positions overall, as junior roles have already evaporated around here and eventually that will translate to fewer seniors.
  - giantg2 1y ago
    "Outsourcing isn't just grunt work. It's almost all work, but cheaper and with less control over the outcome. There will be no "guiding people/LLMs"." It might not be only grunt work, but it is mostly grunt work. That lack of control has led to our org only outsourcing grunt work and low risk projects because of the higher failure rates we've seen. We are starting to use on-shore senior+ and TLs to oversee the work the off-shore resources are doing to help control the outcomes more.
    - Tade0 1y ago
      That's just you and your organization, which is why you're off the mark. Others outsource all kinds of work because talent is not exclusive to the US, but acquiring it might be too difficult. Also FAANG and the like perhaps didn't outsource, but definitely offshored much of their operations.
      - giantg2 1y ago
        I have friends in other companies saying they're doing basically the same thing. I guess unless one of use has a Gartner subscription, we won't know who is more right.
Workaccount2 1y ago
How do you put tariffs on code? heh
- actsasbuffoon 1y ago
  A tax on all import statements.
  - coev 1y ago
    that's dependabot
rjurney 1y ago
When AI is cheap, why use off-shore labor at all? AI replaces it. Why not use the best available talent to oversee and guarantee the work of coding agents? To define requirements and translate them into maintainable code? This is the trend.
gnz11 1y ago
Outsourcing/offshoring has been happening for the last 20+ years though. If anything, LLMs would remove the need offshore things in the first place.

DaSHacka 1y ago

Of all the speculation in this thread, I unfortunately suspect this is the likeliest outcome.

Tade0 1y ago
Hailing from a popular outsourcing destination I think the GP missed the mark somewhat. Outsourcing isn't just grunt work. It's almost all work, but cheaper and with less control over the outcome. There will be no "guiding people/LLMs". You have talented people all over the globe and to date what the best of the best were doing is move to the US. Those were the people guiding/managing outsourced teams, not Americans. You see this now with the "Indians hiring Indians" phenomenon. Trump put the brakes on that, so currently the only thing that's certain is uncertainty. My take is that there will be an attempt to replace at least the bottom end of outsourcing with LLMs, so more pressure on offshore labour to perform and, over time, fewer positions overall, as junior roles have already evaporated around here and eventually that will translate to fewer seniors.
- giantg2 1y ago
  "Outsourcing isn't just grunt work. It's almost all work, but cheaper and with less control over the outcome. There will be no "guiding people/LLMs"." It might not be only grunt work, but it is mostly grunt work. That lack of control has led to our org only outsourcing grunt work and low risk projects because of the higher failure rates we've seen. We are starting to use on-shore senior+ and TLs to oversee the work the off-shore resources are doing to help control the outcomes more.
  - Tade0 1y ago
    That's just you and your organization, which is why you're off the mark. Others outsource all kinds of work because talent is not exclusive to the US, but acquiring it might be too difficult. Also FAANG and the like perhaps didn't outsource, but definitely offshored much of their operations.
    - giantg2 1y ago
      I have friends in other companies saying they're doing basically the same thing. I guess unless one of use has a Gartner subscription, we won't know who is more right.

Workaccount2 1y ago

How do you put tariffs on code? heh

actsasbuffoon 1y ago
A tax on all import statements.
- coev 1y ago
  that's dependabot

rjurney 1y ago

When AI is cheap, why use off-shore labor at all? AI replaces it. Why not use the best available talent to oversee and guarantee the work of coding agents? To define requirements and translate them into maintainable code? This is the trend.

gnz11 1y ago

Outsourcing/offshoring has been happening for the last 20+ years though. If anything, LLMs would remove the need offshore things in the first place.