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It's difficult to imagine what it will be like, but it will be radically different. There will always be a need for a programmer to be able to review code and m

by gardnr 1y ago

It's difficult to imagine what it will be like, but it will be radically different. There will always be a need for a programmer to be able to review code and make sure things are going in the "right" direction. One can speculate if this one human + AI will replace 10, 100, or 1,000 human workers. Recently, there was an analysis of when we might get to Post-Labor Economics: > 2025 to 2030: Collapse of knowledge work. The "KVM Rule" applies: any job you can do entirely with a keyboard, video, and mouse will be fully replaced. https://x.com/daveshapi/status/1916188978727784847?t=9YNl90VO4A62x3aQhEQ-hw https://x.com/daveshapi/status/1916188978727784847?t=9YNl90V...

candiddevmike 1y ago
AI + human replacing 1000 humans? This seems like the 9 women can have a baby in 1 month fallacy all over again.
- gardnr 1y ago
  It will be interesting to review this thread in 10 years time.
squidbeak 1y ago
> There will always be a need for a programmer to be able to review code and make sure things are going in the "right" direction. I'm curious, what makes you think this?
- jonplackett 1y ago
  Maybe companies will just want someone to hold to account. Did you see the recent case of the airline’s customer service LLM that promised someone a refund due to a relative dying? And the courts forced the airline to honour it despite it not being accurate (turns out LLMs have more humanity than a corporation). Putting your company in the hands of an LLM workforce could save a few dollars, but it can cost a lot too.
alok-g 1y ago
>> 2025 to 2030: Collapse of knowledge work. The "KVM Rule" applies: any job you can do entirely with a keyboard, video, and mouse will be fully replaced. Even that seems too fast. There will surely be more innovation, some unanticipated, but not that knowledge work will be all gone in five years from now.
- owebmaster 1y ago
  In 2030 people will be using LLMs to predict that 2030-2035 will be the end of the knowledge work. It won't ever end. Most jobs are already not needed, more automation will create more useless jobs.

by gardnr 1y ago

candiddevmike 1y ago

AI + human replacing 1000 humans? This seems like the 9 women can have a baby in 1 month fallacy all over again.

gardnr 1y ago
It will be interesting to review this thread in 10 years time.

squidbeak 1y ago

> There will always be a need for a programmer to be able to review code and make sure things are going in the "right" direction. I'm curious, what makes you think this?

jonplackett 1y ago
Maybe companies will just want someone to hold to account. Did you see the recent case of the airline’s customer service LLM that promised someone a refund due to a relative dying? And the courts forced the airline to honour it despite it not being accurate (turns out LLMs have more humanity than a corporation). Putting your company in the hands of an LLM workforce could save a few dollars, but it can cost a lot too.

alok-g 1y ago

>> 2025 to 2030: Collapse of knowledge work. The "KVM Rule" applies: any job you can do entirely with a keyboard, video, and mouse will be fully replaced. Even that seems too fast. There will surely be more innovation, some unanticipated, but not that knowledge work will be all gone in five years from now.

owebmaster 1y ago
In 2030 people will be using LLMs to predict that 2030-2035 will be the end of the knowledge work. It won't ever end. Most jobs are already not needed, more automation will create more useless jobs.