Lucky and easy are not mutually exclusive. See my other comment below about the 538 predictions[1]. We basically got the most likely individual outcome (making

Lucky and easy are not mutually exclusive. See my other comment below about the 538 predictions[1]. We basically got the most likely individual outcome (making it easy), which itself wasn't that likely because there were so many possible outcomes (making it lucky). I just don't think the 2024 election was a particularly good one to demonstrate predictive skill due to the results all being relatively uniformly off expectations. You would need to accurately predict different states swinging in different directions to show an actual interesting insight. But that wasn't possible this election because Trump mostly just beat his poll numbers by a relatively consistent amount across the board, not giving any opportunity to hit multiple different uncorrelated outcomes. [1] - https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a4e/final-presidential-election-forecast-abc-ml-241105_1730808838900_hpEmbed_27x16.jpg?w=750 https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/ff20d77c-0734-48d0-b9b3-72eb9bec8a...