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You can build a model, but is there any reason to assume it can predict what you want it to predict?
by oldgradstudent 1y ago
You can build a model, but is there any reason to assume it can predict what you want it to predict?
- lormayna 1y agoA very rudimentary process for a conclave election can be modeled by a geometric distribution. So using a bayesian model to estimate that can be appropriate. Of course, if you want a better estimation you need a more complex model, but I repeat, for a toy project it would be interesting. Anyway, at least the real election at 4th ballot was inside the confidence interval predicted by my model.