Most of them aren't coinflips, and all of their outcomes are strongly dependent, and you don't have to call it until the coin is about to land. It does boil do

Most of them aren't coinflips, and all of their outcomes are strongly dependent, and you don't have to call it until the coin is about to land. It does boil down to predicting a coinflip of 'Which party will outperform the polls (and by roughly how much).' And getting three of those in a row is, while not trivial, does not in itself a dynasty make.