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> There are absolutely not going to be free and fair elections 4 years from now. That's overly alarmist. The one thing the US has going for it when it comes t

by kelnos 2y ago

> There are absolutely not going to be free and fair elections 4 years from now. That's overly alarmist. The one thing the US has going for it when it comes to elections is that they are run by the states, not by the federal government, which insulates them from a lot of possible election meddling. Things like the SAVE Act are incredibly concerning, though. It's unclear if the worst provisions of it are even constitutional, but it's also unclear if SCOTUS will actually do the right thing if SAVE gets passed. And certainly people are going to end up being disenfranchised, regardless of what happens, and of course more of them will be left-leaning voters. Higher voter turnout tends to give the GOP worse electoral results; they know this, so they focus on voter suppression. It's disgusting. So yes, I think we should be worried, but your statement is overly alarmist and not helpful.

anigbrowl 2y ago
Would you have believed a few months ago that the US government would be trying to strong-arm foreign nations who are nominally allies into compliance with its policy preferences? Here's another recent example of that: https://www.dw.com/en/france-voices-shock-at-us-calls-to-drop-dei-programs/a-72094764 https://www.dw.com/en/france-voices-shock-at-us-calls-to-dro... I have been warning for years (often here on HN) that the US risks tilting into a failed state due to political extremism, and its generally been dismissed as an impossibility - there is no way, people insisted, that an extreme fringe could reshape the American polity because of the Constitutional guardrails, the rock-solid institutions, the societal norms. Well it's happening right in front of us now. Just this week we're seeing the National Science Foundation dismantled, the nonpartisan Librarian of Congress arbitarily fired, the President demurring on TV when asked about his duty to uphold Constitutional guarantees of due process. You identify a bunch of looming electoral problems yourself. The problem is that it doesn't require a great deal of electoral corruption to sway the outcome. Some states will cheerfully go along with the executive's agenda, those that don't will be denounced as having rigged their own elections. The whole hysteria about illegal immigrants is based on the specious claim that one party is importing them wholesale and somehow converting them into voters to steal elections from conservatives forever. The right has been selling that argument for over 30 years, going back to Newt Gingrich.
- Ray20 2y ago
  >Would you have believed a few months ago that the US government would be trying to strong-arm foreign nations who are nominally allies into compliance with its policy preferences? What do you mean? Hasn't the USA pretty much ALWAYS done this? >The whole hysteria about illegal immigrants is based on the specious claim that one party is importing them wholesale and somehow converting them into voters to steal elections from conservatives forever. In fact, the whole hysteria is based on the existence of tens of millions of illegal immigrants who are committing huge numbers of crimes and are systematically discriminated against because of their illegal status. And when your political opponents so loudly try to deny such an obvious for everyone problem, it is stupid not to take advantage of it. I don't know, maybe I don't understand American politics, but from the outside everything seems pretty clear to me.
  - anigbrowl 2y ago
    The USA has not always done this. It has historically thrown its weight around (see any history book) but has historically maintained a far greater emphasis on diplomacy and international comity rather than the outright bullying we see now. You will note that I specifically referred to the US' behavior toward nominal allies. If you disagree, please provide some examples. > millions of illegal immigrants who are committing huge numbers of crimes A trope wholly ungrounded in fact, which has been debunked any number of times. https://docs.house.gov/meetings/JU/JU01/20250122/117827/HHRG-119-JU01-20250122-SD004.pdf https://docs.house.gov/meetings/JU/JU01/20250122/117827/HHRG... https://www.cato.org/blog/new-research-illegal-immigration-crime-0 https://www.cato.org/blog/new-research-illegal-immigration-c... https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6241529/#S14 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6241529/#S14
    - Ray20 2y ago
      >historically maintained a far greater emphasis on diplomacy and international comity rather than the outright bullying we see now. What are you even talking about? The US military budget is bigger than the next nine countries’ military budgets combined. It's always been outright bullying. Or do you seriously think that such a budget was just for a beauty?
trealira 2y ago
> That's overly alarmist. The one thing the US has going for it when it comes to elections is that they are run by the states, not by the federal government, which insulates them from a lot of possible election meddling. Ah, that's reassuring. I'm sure Republican state officials won't allege mass voter fraud in 2028 and discount votes they claim to be from illegals when it seems like the election isn't going their way. And I'm sure there won't be violence threatened against election workers from the voters for harboring such fraud, either.

by kelnos 2y ago

anigbrowl 2y ago

Would you have believed a few months ago that the US government would be trying to strong-arm foreign nations who are nominally allies into compliance with its policy preferences? Here's another recent example of that: https://www.dw.com/en/france-voices-shock-at-us-calls-to-drop-dei-programs/a-72094764 https://www.dw.com/en/france-voices-shock-at-us-calls-to-dro... I have been warning for years (often here on HN) that the US risks tilting into a failed state due to political extremism, and its generally been dismissed as an impossibility - there is no way, people insisted, that an extreme fringe could reshape the American polity because of the Constitutional guardrails, the rock-solid institutions, the societal norms. Well it's happening right in front of us now. Just this week we're seeing the National Science Foundation dismantled, the nonpartisan Librarian of Congress arbitarily fired, the President demurring on TV when asked about his duty to uphold Constitutional guarantees of due process. You identify a bunch of looming electoral problems yourself. The problem is that it doesn't require a great deal of electoral corruption to sway the outcome. Some states will cheerfully go along with the executive's agenda, those that don't will be denounced as having rigged their own elections. The whole hysteria about illegal immigrants is based on the specious claim that one party is importing them wholesale and somehow converting them into voters to steal elections from conservatives forever. The right has been selling that argument for over 30 years, going back to Newt Gingrich.

Ray20 2y ago
>Would you have believed a few months ago that the US government would be trying to strong-arm foreign nations who are nominally allies into compliance with its policy preferences? What do you mean? Hasn't the USA pretty much ALWAYS done this? >The whole hysteria about illegal immigrants is based on the specious claim that one party is importing them wholesale and somehow converting them into voters to steal elections from conservatives forever. In fact, the whole hysteria is based on the existence of tens of millions of illegal immigrants who are committing huge numbers of crimes and are systematically discriminated against because of their illegal status. And when your political opponents so loudly try to deny such an obvious for everyone problem, it is stupid not to take advantage of it. I don't know, maybe I don't understand American politics, but from the outside everything seems pretty clear to me.
- anigbrowl 2y ago
  The USA has not always done this. It has historically thrown its weight around (see any history book) but has historically maintained a far greater emphasis on diplomacy and international comity rather than the outright bullying we see now. You will note that I specifically referred to the US' behavior toward nominal allies. If you disagree, please provide some examples. > millions of illegal immigrants who are committing huge numbers of crimes A trope wholly ungrounded in fact, which has been debunked any number of times. https://docs.house.gov/meetings/JU/JU01/20250122/117827/HHRG-119-JU01-20250122-SD004.pdf https://docs.house.gov/meetings/JU/JU01/20250122/117827/HHRG... https://www.cato.org/blog/new-research-illegal-immigration-crime-0 https://www.cato.org/blog/new-research-illegal-immigration-c... https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6241529/#S14 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6241529/#S14
  - Ray20 2y ago
    >historically maintained a far greater emphasis on diplomacy and international comity rather than the outright bullying we see now. What are you even talking about? The US military budget is bigger than the next nine countries’ military budgets combined. It's always been outright bullying. Or do you seriously think that such a budget was just for a beauty?

trealira 2y ago

> That's overly alarmist. The one thing the US has going for it when it comes to elections is that they are run by the states, not by the federal government, which insulates them from a lot of possible election meddling. Ah, that's reassuring. I'm sure Republican state officials won't allege mass voter fraud in 2028 and discount votes they claim to be from illegals when it seems like the election isn't going their way. And I'm sure there won't be violence threatened against election workers from the voters for harboring such fraud, either.